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UTSA

UTSA 27 at Rice 29

RICE
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+16.7RICE 63.6%E.J. Warner pass complete to DeanConnors for 69 yds for a TD (D.Connors Run For Two-point Conversion)AWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q3 13:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:35 · E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 69 yds for a TD (D. Connors Run For Two-point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense+7.5Pregame prior−3.5Garbage-time factor+1.7Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:35: E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 69 yds for a TD (D. Connors Run For Two-point Conversion) — RICE win probability +16.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:01: Dean Connors run for 8 yds for a TD (Enock Gota PAT MISSED) — RICE win probability +15.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:40: Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 6 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — UTSA win probability +23.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 2:06: Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 38 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — UTSA win probability +43.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:04: E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — RICE win probability +77.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:23UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:58UTSA 4th & 3 at RICE 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:22UTSA 4th & 6 at RICE 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53UTSA 4th & 20 at UTSA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:49RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:30UTSA 4th & 20 at RICE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06RICE 4th & 7 at UTSA 38, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:26UTSA 4th & 17 at RICE 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:38RICE 4th & 9 at UTSA 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:45UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:39RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 19, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:37UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.6%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:20RICE 4th & 9 at UTSA 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−5.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:08RICE 4th & 25 at RICE 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−14.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 4UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 4:57RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:50UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:35RICE Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:01RICE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:40UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−1.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:06UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:04RICE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.3 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.9%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:3757% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 8 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
42.6%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the UTSA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
42.6%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the UTSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
42.6%
Devin McCuin run for 21 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
42.6%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Allen,Demetris) 5 yards from Rice44 to Rice49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+4
42.6%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
42.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-6
42.6%
Owen McCown sacked by Michael Daley for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 49Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
43.8%
Caile Hogan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2544% → 45%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
43.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-3
43.6%
PENALTY Rice Holding (Stickle,David) 3 yards from Rice06 to Rice03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+12
43.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 12 yds to the RICE 15Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+1
43.5%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
43.7%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 17Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+15
43.6%
PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Robinson,Jimmori) 15 yards from Rice17 to Rice32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
43.7%
E.J. Warner run for 1 yd to the RICE 31Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+7
43.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 7 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
45.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 7 yds Matt Sykes fumbled, recovered by UTSA Elliott DavisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3656% → 55%
Q1 6:58
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+6
44.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 6 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
43.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
43.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
43.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
43.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
43.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 4 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+1
43.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the RICE 38Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
45.0%
Chase Allen 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4746% → 47%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
45.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 6 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
46.1%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
46.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 4 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
46.5%
E.J. Warner run for 4 yds to the RICE 48Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
46.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
46.7%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4255% → 53%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
45.5%
Robert Henry run for 7 yds to the UTSA 13Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+4
45.7%
Owen McCown run for 4 yds to the UTSA 17Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-2
46.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 15
-5
47.1%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Sparkman,JJ) 5 yards from UTSA15 to UTSA10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
47.2%
Caile Hogan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0448% → 48%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
48.2%
PENALTY Rice Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Mojarro,Elijah) 5 yards from Rice43 to Rice38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+1
47.3%
Quinton Jackson run for 1 yd to the RICE 39Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+9
47.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 9 yds to the RICE 48Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
47.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
47.6%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7FG
18 plays · 55 yds · 6:1954% → 55%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
46.4%
Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds to the UTSA 20Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+12
46.4%
Owen McCown run for 12 yds to the UTSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
46.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTSA 33Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
46.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 8 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+7
45.1%
Brandon High Jr. run for 7 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
44.8%
Owen McCown run for 13 yds to the RICE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
44.6%
Bryson Donnell run for 1 yd to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-3
44.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen for 7 yds to the RICE 31 UTSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the RICE 41Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+14
44.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen for 14 yds to the RICE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
44.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 5 yds to the RICE 22Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
43.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+5
44.6%
PENALTY Rice Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Rice22 to Rice17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
43.9%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Garth,Jaylen) 5 yards from Rice17 to Rice22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
44.1%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the RICE 22Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 15
OPP 22
-5
44.5%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (James,CJ) 5 yards from Rice22 to Rice27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 20
OPP 27
0
44.9%
Devin McCuin run for no gain to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 20
OPP 27
0
45.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 20
OPP 27
+45
44.7%
Tate Sandell 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3344% → 56%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.0%
UTSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
46.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 18 yds to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
47.8%
PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Harris,Denver) 15 yards from UTSA33 to UTSA18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
47.8%
PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul (French,Martavius) 9 yards from UTSA18 to UTSA09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
47.8%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTSA 5Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
56.0%
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q2 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
56.0%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Floyd,Izeya) 5 yards from UTSA03 to UTSA08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0747% → 59%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
53.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 6 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
52.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 2 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
52.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 22 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
50.5%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Carpenter,Chris) 5 yards from Rice42 to Rice47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+23
51.4%
Owen McCown run for 23 yds to the RICE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
49.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen for 4 yds to the RICE 20Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
38.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
41.4%
PENALTY Rice Personal Foul 15 yards from UTSA35 to UTSA50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:4946% → 54%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
45.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+14
46.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 14 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
47.1%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
46.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+3
46.1%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+10
45.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 10 yds to the UTSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+46
53.5%
Enock Gota 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2547% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.1%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
46.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 8 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
63.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 69 yds for a TD (D. Connors Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q3 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.0%
PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul (Taylor,Donyai) 2 yards from UTSA03 to UTSA01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5939% → 42%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
60.7%
Robert Henry run for 7 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
59.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+18
60.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 18 yds to the RICE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
58.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 28Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
58.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 11
OPP 28
-6
61.2%
Owen McCown sacked by Chike Anigbogu for a loss of 6 yards to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+52
58.5%
Tate Sandell 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2557% → 74%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 5 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
57.9%
E.J. Warner run for 4 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
57.7%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
57.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 17 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+40
60.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Sean Fresch for 40 yds to the UTSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
76.2%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds for a TD (Enock Gota PAT MISSED)Similar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
74.1%
PENALTY UTSA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Simon,Asyrus) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1627% → 23%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
73.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
73.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 12Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+3
74.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 3 yds to the UTSA 15Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
76.7%
Caile Hogan punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:0177% → 77%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
77.4%
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 7
50
+10
77.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 10 yds to the UTSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
77.4%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
76.7%
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
77.4%
Conor Hunt punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5322% → 20%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
77.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
77.9%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Missouri,Kamar). NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
77.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+11
79.0%
Robert Henry run for 11 yds to the UTSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
77.4%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
77.6%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 14Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+15
78.7%
Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (Chike Anigbogu) to the UTSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
76.6%
Brandon High Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
76.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the UTSA 33Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+3
77.2%
Owen McCown run for 3 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
80.0%
Caile Hogan punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0681% → 80%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
80.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
81.5%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the RICE 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
80.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 5 yds to the RICE 19Similar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
79.5%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 57 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for no gain to the UTSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0218% → 19%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
82.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 6 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+8
80.2%
Robert Henry run for 8 yds to the UTSA 37 Robert Henry fumbled, recovered by UTSA CJ James for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
80.7%
Owen McCown run for 9 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
79.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 44Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+1
81.1%
Owen McCown run for 1 yd to the UTSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:1785% → 89%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
84.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-15
84.5%
PENALTY Rice Personal Foul (Kropp,Weston) 15 yards from UTSA43 to Rice42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 23
OWN 42
+24
83.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 24 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
84.9%
Quinton Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTSA 35Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+16
84.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 16 yds to the UTSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
84.8%
Quinton Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTSA 18Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
84.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
84.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
88.7%
Enock Gota 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4012% → 42%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
87.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 9 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
85.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 6 yds to the UTSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.1%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.8%
Brandon High Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
86.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 7 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
84.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
50
+40
84.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 40 yds to the RICE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
82.2%
Brandon High Jr. run for 4 yds to the RICE 6Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
82.2%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 6 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:2572% → 74%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
71.5%
PENALTY Rice Illegal Formation 5 yards from Rice30 to Rice25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
71.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-10
69.3%
E.J. Warner sacked by Jimmori Robinson for a loss of 10 yards to the RICE 15Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 25
OWN 15
0
73.8%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0239% → 87%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
61.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 2 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
61.2%
Robert Henry run for 6 yds to the RICE 46Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+15
59.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 15 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
57.4%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-10
56.4%
PENALTY UTSA Holding (Godinet,Cory) 10 yards from Rice28 to Rice38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+38
13.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 38 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23TD
18 plays · 65 yds · 1:5729% → 95%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
27.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 12 yds to the RICE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
32.4%
PENALTY Rice False Start 5 yards from Rice47 to Rice42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+4
28.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 4 yds to the RICE 46Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+15
29.2%
PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Lewis,Jermarius) 15 yards from Rice46 to UTSA39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
34.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 12 yds to the UTSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
39.1%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Lindberg,Chad) 5 yards from UTSA27 to UTSA32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+15
22.6%
PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Robinson,Ken) 15 yards from UTSA32 to UTSA17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
29.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-15
27.1%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Walker,Graham) 15 yards from UTSA17 to UTSA32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 25
OPP 32
+14
19.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 14 yds to the UTSA 18Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+18
95.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 4 yds Chris Carpenter fumbled, recovered by UTSA Blaise TitaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:04
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+77.1
TD · Q4 2:06
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 38 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
-43.4
TD · Q4 5:40
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 6 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
-23.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com