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UNT

North Texas 41 at Florida Atlantic 37

FAU
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-28.5FAU 60.9%Chandler Morris pass complete to DTSheffield for 8 yds for a TD (KaliNguma KICK)AWAY 34 - HOME 37 · Q4 2:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:38 · Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 8 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Pregame prior−0.7Home team on offense+1.7Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:34: Cam Fancher pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 28 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +12.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:21: Makenzie McGill 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick) — UNT win probability +16.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 5:06: CJ Campbell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +22.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:38: Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 8 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +28.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:58: Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +73.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:28UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:28UNT 4th & 2 at FAU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:19UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19FAU 4th & 8 at UNT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:02UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:40UNT 4th & 8 at FAU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30UNT 4th & 4 at FAU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02FAU 4th & 9 at UNT 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−7.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:01FAU 4th & 5 at UNT 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:25FAU 4th & 21 at UNT 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:25UNT 4th & 22 at FAU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−8.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:11FAU 4th & 6 at UNT 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−3.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:02UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 32, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:21FAU 4th & 4 at UNT 14, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−5.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:43FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−3.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:29UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:38FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:11UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:34FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:20FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:21UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:06FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:38UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:58UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 4:3166% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.2%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the UNT 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+19
34.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 19 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
34.2%
Shane Porter run for 6 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
34.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+4
34.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 4 yds to the FAU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
34.7%
Kiefer Sibley run for 3 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+17
34.7%
Chandler Morris run for 17 yds to the FAU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
34.8%
PENALTY UNT False Start 5 yards from FAU27 to FAU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+2
34.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 2 yds to the FAU 30Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+9
34.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 9 yds to the FAU 21Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+2
34.8%
Kiefer Sibley run for 2 yds to the FAU 19Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+2
34.9%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for 2 yds to the FAU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
34.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 19Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+19
34.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 19 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5134% → 39%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 4 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
34.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 13 yds to the FAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
34.3%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 31 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
34.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+5
34.6%
Cam Fancher run for 5 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+5
34.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 5 yds to the UNT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
38.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 14 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:1363% → 62%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
37.5%
Shane Porter run for 15 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
37.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie Mcgill Ii for no gain to the UNT 36Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
37.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+1
38.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 40 yds , Omari Hayes returns for 1 yd to the FAU 25 Omari Hayes fumbled, recovered by UNT X'Avion BriceSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+1
38.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 40 yds , Omari Hayes returns for 1 yd to the FAU 25 Omari Hayes fumbled, recovered by UNT X'Avion BriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
32.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Nick Rempert for 25 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:4533% → 37%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
32.9%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+27
32.9%
Cam Fancher run for 27 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
33.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the FAU 49Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+12
33.6%
Cam Fancher run for 12 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
34.0%
Zuberi Mobley run for 6 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-10
34.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Campbell Jr.,CJ rush left for 4 yards gain to the UNT29 (Whitter,Shane) PENALTY FAU Holding (Lamas,Andre) 10 yards from UNT33 to UNT43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+1
33.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 1 yd to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 13
OPP 42
-5
33.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fancher,Cam rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNT35, End Of Play PENALTY FAU Illegal Formation 5 yards from UNT42 to UNT47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+38
33.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 38 yds to the UNT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for no gain to the UNT 9Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
34.9%
Cam Fancher sacked by Chavez Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
34.3%
Cam Fancher run for 2 yds to the UNT 8Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
36.5%
Morgan Suarez 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1763% → 62%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.1%
Kiefer Sibley run for 5 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
36.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
37.1%
Kiefer Sibley run for 1 yd to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
38.5%
Sawyer Evans punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Omari Hayes at the FAU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:2836% → 50%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
35.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+15
35.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jabari Smith for 15 yds to the FAU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
36.5%
Cam Fancher run for 10 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
37.3%
Cam Fancher run for 2 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
37.5%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 7 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
37.4%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
37.7%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Hayes,Omari) 5 yards from UNT41 to UNT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+2
36.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+6
36.6%
Cam Fancher run for 6 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+10
37.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 10 yds to the UNT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
50.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 28 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:5455% → 60%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.4%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Asenuga,Leke) 5 yards from UNT25 to UNT20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+39
45.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 39 yds to the FAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
42.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 11 yds to the FAU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
41.8%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-5
41.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass complete deep middle to Sheffield,DT caught at FAU00, for 24 yards to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY UNT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hammond,Oscar) 5 yards from FAU24 to FAU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-6
42.0%
Chandler Morris sacked by Prince James Boyd Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FAU 35Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+7
44.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 7 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
39.9%
Kali Nguma 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1345% → 62%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
45.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 21 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
47.5%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 7 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
48.0%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
48.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 3 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+7
48.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
49.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 22 yds to the UNT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
49.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 5 yds to the UNT 5Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jabari Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3943% → 40%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
57.4%
Shane Porter run for 11 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
55.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the FAU 48Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
54.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
54.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
60.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:2867% → 62%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+37
66.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 37 yds to the UNT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
66.6%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
66.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the UNT 9Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
62.5%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 4
OPP 9
-5
61.4%
(00:07) PENALTY FAU False Start (Lamas,Andre) 5 yards from UNT09 to UNT14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
62.3%
Morgan Suarez 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5964% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
63.9%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 4 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
65.2%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 1 yd to the FAU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+22
63.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 22 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.6%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
65.4%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
64.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 5 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
66.7%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4034% → 52%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.0%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the UNT 36Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
65.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 12 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+37
64.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 37 yds to the FAU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
62.2%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the FAU 14Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
62.2%
Chandler Morris run for 4 yds to the FAU 10Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+7
63.7%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for 7 yds to the FAU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.6%
Makenzie McGill 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:5655% → 55%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.8%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 1 yd to the FAU 24Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
54.4%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+52
53.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Milan Tucker for 52 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-17
59.3%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 27
OPP 39
+10
56.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 10 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 17
OPP 29
-4
55.8%
Cam Fancher sacked by Roderick Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 33Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 21
OPP 33
+51
55.1%
Carter Davis 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
54.7%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Jackson Ambush return for no gain to the UNT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
76.8%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 4:3426% → 27%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
74.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 10 yds to the UNT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
73.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 4 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
72.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 3 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+5
73.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass intercepted by Williams,Jayden at FAU45 Williams,Jayden return 17 yards to the UNT38 (Hammond,Oscar) PENALTY FAU Offside (Ifeanyi,Chisom) 5 yards from UNT37 to UNT42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
72.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 19 yds to the FAU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
70.8%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for 20 yds to the FAU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
68.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 10 yds to the FAU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
68.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun McGill II,Makenzie rush right for 1 yard gain to the FAU08 (Williams,Eddie) PENALTY UNT Holding (Dickson III,Johnny) 10 yards from FAU09 to FAU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
-5
69.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler rush right for 19 yards gain to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY UNT Illegal Formation 5 yards from FAU19 to FAU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
+2
70.1%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the FAU 22Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
70.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
72.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+40
72.9%
Kali Nguma 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:4979% → 83%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 11 yds to the FAU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for no gain to the FAU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
79.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the FAU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
79.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
81.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Campbell Jr.,CJ rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNT46 (Wesloski,Ethan; Smith,Jaylen) PENALTY FAU Illegal Formation 5 yards from FAU50 to FAU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+4
80.2%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 4 yds to the FAU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 41
+17
79.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Milan Tucker for 17 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-4
80.6%
Cam Fancher sacked by Jayden Hill for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 46Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
83.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNT 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:0921% → 18%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
78.9%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
79.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+13
80.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Nick Rempert for 13 yds to the UNT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
78.6%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for 14 yds to the UNT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
77.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
78.6%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for 4 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
78.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
81.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:4188% → 92%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
87.6%
Cam Fancher run for no gain to the UNT 32Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.5%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+10
86.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jabari Smith for 10 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
87.6%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+9
87.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for 9 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
86.9%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
91.5%
Morgan Suarez 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:438% → 39%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 8 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
90.7%
Shane Porter run for 4 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
90.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 15 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+40
89.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 33 yds to the FAU 15 for a 1ST down Florida Atlantic Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Wilky Denaud) to the FAU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
60.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 8 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 0:5584% → 87%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.1%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 6 yds to the FAU 31Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
86.8%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 5 yds to the FAU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.1%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 1 yd to the FAU 37Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
88.3%
Cam Fancher run for no gain to the FAU 37Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
87.4%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+27
86.6%
Logan Lupo punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNT 42 , DT Sheffield returns for 27 yds to the UNT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 0:4517% → 95%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
82.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 19 yds DT Sheffield fumbled, recovered by UNT for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
78.2%
Shane Porter run for 34 yds to the FAU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
74.9%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the FAU 6Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
76.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds to the FAU 3Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:1620% → 19%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
20.1%
Cam Fancher run for 14 yds to the FAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.0%
Cam Fancher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
5.4%
C. Morris takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:58
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-73.9
TD · Q4 2:38
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 8 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-28.5
TD · Q3 5:06
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com