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MEM

Memphis 21 at South Florida 3

USF
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at USF46 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Nico Gramatica 52 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +7.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the MEM 22 — USF win probability +3.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:08: ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the MEM20. PENALTY USF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GREENWALD, Gunnar enforced 5 yards from the MEM40 to the MEM45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — USF win probability +3.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:16: Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 6 yds to the USF 46 — MEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 11:17: Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for a loss of 1 yard for a TD Joshua Porter fumbled, recovered by MEM Chandler Martin C. Martin return for 0 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MEM win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 13MEM made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54USF 4th & 6 at USF 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 23, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:29USF 4th & 7 at USF 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:22MEM 4th & 7 at USF 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:31USF 4th & 22 at USF 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:37MEM 4th & 2 at USF 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−1.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:22USF 4th & 6 at MEM 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:50MEM 4th & 6 at USF 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:48MEM 4th & 6 at USF 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:15USF 4th & 3 at USF 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:12USF 4th & 3 at USF 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:39MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:02USF 4th & 2 at USF 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:03USF 4th & 1 at MEM 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−1.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−6.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:08MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:20MEM 4th & 2 at USF 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−2.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q3 6:35USF 4th & 8 at USF 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:48MEM 4th & 12 at MEM 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  20. Q3 0:52USF 4th & 4 at USF 39, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:26MEM 4th & 9 at USF 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:40USF 4th & 8 at MEM 27, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 6:25MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  24. Q4 5:19USF 4th & 8 at USF 28, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
  25. Q4 3:12USF 4th & 1 at MEM 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.5
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:10MEM 4th & 1 at USF 47, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:50MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:52MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:1073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.6%
HENIGAN, Seth pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TAYLOR, Roc thrown to the MEM50. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on AUSTIN, Brent enforced 15 yards to the MEM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for no gain to the MEM 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
26.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 7 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
26.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
26.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
26.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
26.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 10 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
26.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
27.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 31 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5628% → 27%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
27.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
27.9%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
27.7%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
27.4%
Andrew Stokes punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1173% → 72%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
27.5%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 19Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+3
27.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 3 yds to the MEM 22Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+1
27.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the MEM 23Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
28.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
28.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds Sean Atkins fumbled, recovered by MEM Jordan Grier J. Grier return for 3 yds fumbled, recovered by MEM Davion Ross D. Ross return for 3 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:3773% → 76%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
27.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+24
27.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 24 yds to the USF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
24.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2326% → 25%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
25.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
25.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
25.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 60 yds, downed at the MEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:0775% → 76%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
24.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 5 yds to the MEM 17Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+15
24.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 15 yds to the MEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
24.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 24 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
24.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+15
23.2%
South Florida Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HAWTHORNE, Decarius enforced (Decarius Hawthorne) to the USF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
23.2%
ANDERSON JR., Mario rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the USF13 (HARRIS, Mac;WARD, Tavin). PENALTY MEM Holding on GAMBILL, Jonah enforced 10 yards from the USF24 to the USF34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+2
23.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 2 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 32
+8
22.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+3
22.8%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
23.1%
Caden Costa 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
23.6%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:5124% → 23%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
23.6%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 15
OWN 16
-7
23.5%
Bryce Archie sacked by Chandler Martin for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 9Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 22
OWN 9
0
23.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 22
OWN 9
0
22.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 22 yds · 4:5478% → 79%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
22.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+4
22.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 4 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+12
22.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 12 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
22.0%
ANDERSON JR., Mario rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards to the USF49 (HARRIS, Mac;GOODEN, Bernard). PENALTY USF Offsides on GOODEN, Bernard enforced 5 yards from the USF46 to the USF41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 5
OPP 41
0
21.9%
PENALTY USF Unsportsmanlike Conduct MEM Unsportsmanlike Conduct on ANDERSON JR., Mario , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 5
OPP 41
-10
21.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for TAYLOR, Roc broken up by AUSTIN, Brent at the USF0. PENALTY MEM Holding on LEWIS, Keydrell enforced 10 yards from the USF41 to the MEM49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+8
22.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
22.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 4 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
22.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the USF 38Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
20.9%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the USF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1522% → 22%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
22.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 13 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
22.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
22.4%
Bryce Archie run for no gain to the MEM 45Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
22.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
21.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:3479% → 82%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
20.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
21.0%
South Florida Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ben Knox) to the MEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
20.8%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left complete for 0 yards to DRAKE, Koby to the MEM22 (AUGUSTIN, D'Marco;BANKS, Kajuan). PENALTY MEM Holding on LEWIS, Keydrell USF Unnecessary Roughness on PETTWAY, Jamie , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
20.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Ja'Koby Banks for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 20Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+8
21.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 8 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+6
20.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 6 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
20.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 2 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+12
20.5%
Makari Bodiford run for 12 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
19.9%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
17.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Ja'Koby Banks for no gain to the USF 48Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
17.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
18.2%
Joshua Sloan punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
18.1%
Joshua Sloan punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3619% → 19%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
19.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for no gain to the USF 14Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-3
18.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 11Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+10
18.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 10 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
18.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 29Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
18.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3382% → 81%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
18.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 8 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
18.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
18.6%
Joshua Sloan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:3217% → 25%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
16.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 8 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
17.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
17.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 8 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
17.6%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
17.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+5
16.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 5 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
17.9%
ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for PORTER, Joshua broken up by MARTIN, Chandler at the MEM1. PENALTY MEM Roughing the Passer on KARHU, Brett enforced 15 yards from the MEM49 to the MEM34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+52
25.2%
Nico Gramatica 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:5723% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USF 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+48
23.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Hardeman for 48 yds to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
26.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the MEM 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
26.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the MEM 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
25.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the MEM 18Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
24.0%
Bryce Archie run for no gain to the MEM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5577% → 77%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
22.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Ja'Koby Banks for 3 yds to the MEM 21Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-5
22.7%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Chris Adams) to the MEM 16Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+8
22.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 8 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
22.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+5
22.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for 51 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 5 yds to the USF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5222% → 22%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
22.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
21.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 29Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+31
20.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 31 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
24.1%
ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the MEM20. PENALTY USF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GREENWALD, Gunnar enforced 5 yards from the MEM40 to the MEM45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+2
23.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-46
21.9%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Davion Ross return for 46 yds to the MEM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:5681% → 80%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
18.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 6 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-2
18.7%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 48Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
19.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 4 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
19.7%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Tavin Ward return for no gain to the USF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4521% → 20%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 11
OWN 39
0
21.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
20.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
20.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
19.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, downed at the MEM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:4780% → 80%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
19.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the MEM 20Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
20.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 6 yds to the MEM 26Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+4
19.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
19.4%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jamie Pettway for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 28Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
18.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for no gain to the MEM 28Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
19.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+6
19.8%
Joshua Sloan punt for 45 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 6 yds to the USF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5618% → 17%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
17.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 4 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
18.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-3
18.6%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 39Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
16.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 56 yds, downed at the MEM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:3483% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+38
16.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 38 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
14.8%
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
14.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
50
+5
15.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
14.4%
Ja'Koby Banks run for 1 yd to the USF 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
14.5%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the USF 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
14.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
13.8%
Joshua Sloan punt for 43 yds, downed at the USF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23FUMBLE TD
1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
3.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for a loss of 1 yard for a TD Joshua Porter fumbled, recovered by MEM Chandler Martin C. Martin return for 0 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:374% → 2%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.1%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
4.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 12 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
4.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
50
0
4.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
50
+21
2.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Hardeman for 21 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
2.6%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
2.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
2.2%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 8
OPP 27
0
2.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1598% → 98%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
2.5%
Seth Henigan run for 13 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
2.4%
THOMAS, Brandon rush up the middle for no gain to the MEM40 (BLUE-ELI, Doug). PENALTY MEM Holding on LEWIS, Keydrell enforced 10 yards from the MEM40 to the MEM30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
2.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 20
OWN 30
0
2.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+12
2.7%
Ja'Koby Banks run for 12 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
1.9%
Joshua Sloan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:132% → 1%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
1.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 14 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.5%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
1.5%
Bryce Archie run for 2 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
0.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+19
0.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 19 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
0.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
0.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 2 yds Sean Atkins fumbled, recovered by USFSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
0.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for no gain to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
0.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:1299% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
1.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
0.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
50
+3
0.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+5
0.6%
Jamari Hawkins run for 5 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
0.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at USF46 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 11:17
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for a loss of 1 yard for a TD Joshua Porter fumbled, recovered by MEM Chandler Martin C. Martin return for 0 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
-9.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Nico Gramatica 52 yd FG GOOD
+7.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:08
ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the MEM20. PENALTY USF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GREENWALD, Gunnar enforced 5 yards from the MEM40 to the MEM45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com