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ARMY

Army 49 at Tulsa 7

TLSA
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:07 · James Wagenseller punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−1.1Pregame prior−21.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:14: Cooper Legas run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +5.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:02: Bryson Daily run for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:49: Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 58 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:33: Kanye Udoh run for 61 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:44: Kanye Udoh run for 63 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 11:58TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 39, tied
    Close callWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:26TLSA 4th & 5 at ARMY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:07ARMY 4th & 4 at TLSA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:28TLSA 4th & 9 at ARMY 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:30TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:34TLSA 4th & 7 at ARMY 28, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:07TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:59ARMY 4th & 3 at TLSA 46, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:19TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:31TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 44, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:31ARMY 4th & 10 at TLSA 45, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:30ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:14TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:02ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:49ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:33ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:44ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:14ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:40ARMY Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4924% → 25%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
23.6%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
23.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+8
23.9%
Kirk Francis run for 8 yds to the TLSA 15 Kirk Francis fumbled, recovered by TLSA Justin LohrenzSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+19
24.2%
(13:19) Davies,Angus punt 55 yards to the Army30 Stewart,Miles return 6 yards to the Army36 (Green,Elijah) PENALTY Army Roughing The Kicker 19 yards from TLS15 to TLS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
24.5%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+2
24.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 2 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+3
24.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 3 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 1:2875% → 76%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
24.7%
Kanye Udoh run for 4 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
24.7%
Noah Short run for 1 yd to the TLSA 37Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+37
24.1%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 37 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:1225% → 30%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
24.4%
Cooper Legas run for 11 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
24.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 6 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
24.8%
Kirk Francis run for 2 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
24.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the ARMY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
24.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 8 yds to the ARMY 41Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+6
24.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
25.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
25.0%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
24.8%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the ARMY 30Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+16
24.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 16 yds to the ARMY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
25.0%
Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARMY 23Similar
Q1 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
25.0%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the ARMY 5Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
25.0%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the ARMY 1Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.4%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:0771% → 70%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
29.2%
PENALTY Army Delay Of Game 5 yards from Army25 to Army20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
29.3%
Noah Short run for 6 yds to the ARMY 26Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
29.2%
Bryson Daily run for 20 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
28.4%
Kanye Udoh run for 1 yd to the ARMY 47Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
28.5%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Kanye Udoh for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 6
50
+2
28.4%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
30.1%
James Wagenseller punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5DOWNS
14 plays · 53 yds · 6:3231% → 35%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
31.4%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
31.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 4 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
31.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 6 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
31.3%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+19
31.2%
Cooper Legas run for 19 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
34.5%
Kirk Francis run for 4 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
34.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for no gain to the ARMY 42Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
34.1%
Cooper Legas run for 8 yds to the ARMY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
34.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for a loss of 4 yards to the ARMY 38Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+2
33.7%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+3
33.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 3 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+3
35.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Corey Smith for 3 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 3:2667% → 77%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
32.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 1 yd to the ARMY 29Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+26
33.5%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 26 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
31.1%
Samari Howard run for 4 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+21
31.1%
Bryson Daily run for 21 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
30.2%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Hayden Reed for 16 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.9%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2526% → 25%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
25.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
24.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 6 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
25.2%
Angus Davies punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3576% → 84%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
23.6%
Bryson Daily run for 7 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
22.8%
Jake Rendina run for 2 yds to the ARMY 41Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
22.6%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
16.3%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 58 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:4314% → 16%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.8%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
13.6%
Cooper Legas run for 8 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
15.9%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
16.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Corey Smith for 20 yds to the ARMY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
16.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 3 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2283% → 92%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.2%
Bryson Daily run for 8 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
16.7%
Jake Rendina run for 6 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
7.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 61 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 5:5411% → 8%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
10.9%
Bill Jackson run for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
11.0%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
10.9%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
10.9%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
11.1%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
10.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds to the ARMY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
10.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 10 yds to the ARMY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
10.5%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
10.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the ARMY 23Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-5
9.2%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Burnett,Reynard) 5 yards from Army23 to Army28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
8.8%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the ARMY 28Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 7
OPP 28
0
8.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:4295% → 98%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
4.8%
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+63
1.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 63 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
2.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 24Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
2.0%
Kirk Francis run for 1 yd to the TLSA 25Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
1.9%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.8%
PENALTY TLS Delay Of Game 5 yards from TLS25 to TLS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+12
1.8%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Lloyd Benson III returns for 12 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 4:4698% → 99%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
1.6%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
1.5%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+2
1.8%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+4
1.8%
Noah Short run for 4 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
1.5%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the TLSA 38 Bryson Daily fumbled, recovered by ARMY Jordyn LawSimilar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+9
1.5%
Kanye Udoh run for 9 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
1.4%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
0.6%
Bryson Daily run for 27 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 3 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
0.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 1 yd to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 14:28
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
0.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+7
0.4%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds , Lloyd Benson III returns for 7 yds to the ARMY 31 Lloyd Benson III fumbled, recovered by ARMY Lloyd Benson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 6:2699% → 100%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.6%
David Clerk run for 5 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
0.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
0.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the ARMY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
0.4%
David Clerk run for 14 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
0.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the TLSA 41Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+9
0.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 9 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
0.3%
Jake Rendina run for 2 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-2
0.3%
Dewayne Coleman sacked by Ashton Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+20
0.3%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Will Montesi for 20 yds to the TLSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
0.2%
Jake Rendina run for 7 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
0.2%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the TLSA 4Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Dewayne Coleman run for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
0.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
0.1%
Cardell Williams run for 1 yd to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
0.1%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Corey Smith for 5 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+1
0.1%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the TLSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
0.2%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+3
0.1%
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+1
0.1%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the TLSA 45Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
James Wagenseller punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
0.1%
Lloyd Avant run for 1 yd to the TLSA 3Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+5
0.0%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the TLSA 8Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+5
0.0%
Cardell Williams run for 5 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
0.0%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
0.0%
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the TLSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:33
Kanye Udoh run for 61 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q2 5:02
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 1:49
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 58 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com