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TLSA

Tulsa 20 at North Texas 52

UNT
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:33 · Angus Davies punt for 43 yds, downed at the UNT 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−4.1Score differential−2.0Blowout margin+0.2Pregame prior+6.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:47: Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 96 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +10.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:56: Kali Nguma 27 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +4.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Wyatt Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +10.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:06: Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 26 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +9.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:05: Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 27 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:59TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27UNT 4th & 1 at TLSA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45TLSA 4th & 3 at UNT 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:01UNT 4th & 16 at TLSA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:59TLSA 4th & 6 at UNT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:13UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:12TLSA 4th & 4 at UNT 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:43UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:37UNT 4th & 18 at UNT 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:33TLSA 4th & 3 at UNT 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:05TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:56UNT 4th & 9 at TLSA 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:37TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:11TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:37TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:47TLSA 4th & 11 at UNT 27, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:41UNT 4th & 4 at TLSA 26, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:58TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 38, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 4:47UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:28UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:06UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:05UNT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:31UNT Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:32UNT Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:35UNT Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:29TLSA Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:06TLSA Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5938% → 38%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
61.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 2 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
61.6%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
61.7%
Tulsa Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kirk Francis) to the TLSA 27Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
61.8%
Angus Davies punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2562% → 62%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.8%
Shane Porter run for no gain to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
61.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 17 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
62.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
62.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+9
61.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Nick Rempert for 9 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-4
61.9%
Chandler Morris sacked by Owen Ostroski for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3739% → 39%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
61.4%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
61.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
61.1%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
61.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+5
61.1%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-4
61.2%
Kirk Francis sacked by Ethan Wesloski for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3662% → 61%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
61.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 18 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
62.2%
(09:20) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right complete for 23 yards to SIDES, Landon caught at the TLS19 and advanced to the TLS18 (HODGE, Dayne), clock 09:15. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Motion on SHEFFIELD, DT enforced 5 yards from the TLS41 to the TLS46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+5
61.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 5 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
62.0%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
61.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 11
OPP 42
-5
61.2%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TLSA 47Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
61.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:5639% → 40%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
61.4%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
61.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 4 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+22
61.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 22 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
60.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+23
60.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 23 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
60.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 4 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
59.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
60.0%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for no gain to the UNT 32Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 6
OPP 32
0
60.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3761% → 60%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
61.2%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for no gain to the UNT 32Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
61.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
60.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+12
60.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 12 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:4840% → 43%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
60.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 9 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
59.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
50
+8
58.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 8 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
58.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 3 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
58.7%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
57.9%
North Texas Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (7 Yards) to the UNT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
57.8%
Bill Jackson run for 11 yds to the UNT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
57.7%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 4Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
57.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
57.4%
Seth Morgan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2458% → 57%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.1%
Kiefer Sibley run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
58.2%
Chandler Morris run for 1 yd to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
57.6%
Chandler Morris sacked by R.J. Jackson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 23Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
56.5%
Sawyer Evans punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4643% → 43%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
57.1%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 11 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
56.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
55.7%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-10
55.7%
Tulsa Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the UNT 47Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
56.6%
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Evan Jackson return for no gain to the UNT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0457% → 55%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
57.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-3
56.8%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 31Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-5
55.4%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 26Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
55.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
54.8%
Sawyer Evans punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5344% → 47%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
55.7%
Bill Jackson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
53.5%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 43Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
53.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 6 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
52.5%
Bill Jackson run for 7 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
51.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
52.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for no gain to the UNT 44Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
53.5%
Angus Davies punt for 43 yds, downed at the UNT 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 99 yds · 0:3353% → 64%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
53.4%
Shane Porter run for 3 yds to the UNT 4Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+96
63.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 96 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4036% → 36%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 6 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
64.5%
Angus Davies punt for 33 yds , DT Sheffield returns for 15 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:0067% → 71%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
67.2%
Kiefer Sibley run for 7 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+33
67.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 33 yds to the TLSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
68.0%
(03:08) MORRIS, Chandler pass to the left incomplete intended for SHEFFIELD, DT thrown to the TLS0, clock 03:04. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the TLS9 to the TLS14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
68.0%
Kiefer Sibley run for no gain to the TLSA 14Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
67.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
66.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 5 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
70.9%
Kali Nguma 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:1730% → 29%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.7%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
69.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
70.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
71.3%
punt blocked by Alphie Guillory Jr. blocked by Alphie Guillory Jr. (01:37) Punt by DAVIES, Angus at the TLS26 is blocked by GUILLORY JR., Alphie, recovered by UNT WESLOSKI, Ethan at the TLS2, returned 1 yard to the TLS1 (POTTS, Eli), clock 01:33. , returns for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.8%
Wyatt Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:5022% → 21%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.2%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
78.3%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+19
77.9%
Bill Jackson run for 19 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
77.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-27
79.5%
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Evan Jackson return for 27 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:1483% → 93%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
83.3%
Chandler Morris run for 15 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
92.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 26 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
90.0%
Bill Jackson run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:4992% → 98%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kiefer Sibley for 8 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
92.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:29
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
92.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 4 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
93.1%
(13:56) MORRIS, Chandler pass up the middle incomplete intended for HAMMOND, Oscar thrown to the TLS37, clock 13:54. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Formation on PETERSON, Landon enforced 5 yards from the UNT48 to the UNT43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+3
92.7%
Kiefer Sibley run for 3 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
92.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+13
92.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 13 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
93.5%
(12:59) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SIDES, Landon thrown to the TLS6, clock 12:57. PENALTY UNT Holding on MOORE III, Larry enforced 10 yards from the TLS41 to the UNT49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+40
93.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Nick Rempert for 40 yds to the TLSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
93.6%
(12:30) SIBLEY, Kiefer rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the TLS0, TOUCHDOWN UNT, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:29 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UNT Holding on ASENUGA, Leke enforced 10 yards from the TLS11 to the TLS21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 20
OPP 21
-6
93.6%
(12:27) MORRIS, Chandler pass up the middle complete for 15 yards to HAMMOND, Oscar caught at the TLS23 and advanced to the TLS6 (GARRETT, Buddha), clock 12:21. PENALTY UNT Holding on DUNCAN, Jett enforced 6 yards from the TLS21 to the TLS27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 26
OPP 27
+27
98.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 27 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:512% → 1%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
(12:02) WATKINS, Anthony rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the TLS32 (WESLOSKI, Ethan), clock 12:00. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the TLS25 to the TLS30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+1
98.3%
Cardell Williams run for 1 yd to the TLSA 31Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.4%
(11:10) FRANCIS, Kirk pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BENJAMIN, Kamdyn thrown to the UNT36, clock 11:06. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on NELSON II, Brian enforced 15 yards to the TLS46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Angus Davies punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
98.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
50
+19
98.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 19 yds to the TLSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
99.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie Mcgill Ii for 17 yds to the TLSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 14 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:491% → 1%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.2%
Cardell Williams run for 28 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Cardell Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Cardell Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.3%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 8
OPP 45
-5
99.3%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Zion Steptoe) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 13
50
-5
99.4%
Tulsa Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the TLSA 45Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Angus Davies punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 4:5599% → 100%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+18
99.3%
Kiefer Sibley run for 18 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
99.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 14 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Baron Tipton for 8 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+19
99.4%
Kiefer Sibley run for 19 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.4%
Kiefer Sibley run for 7 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+13
99.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 13 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+14
99.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 14 yds to the TLSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
99.6%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 9Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kiefer Sibley for 9 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
99.7%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 11 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
99.7%
Cardell Williams sacked by Breylon Charles for a loss of 8 yards to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Cardell Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+19
99.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 19 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Luke McGary for 2 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
99.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+15
99.8%
(13:31) WILLIAMS, Cardell pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BENJAMIN, Kamdyn thrown to the UNT3, clock 13:26. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on WILLIAMS II, Kerry enforced 15 yards to the UNT26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
99.7%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 27Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Cardell Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Cardell Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+45
99.8%
Seth Morgan 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.8%
Makenzie McGill 75 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 4:560% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 19Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+8
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 8 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+27
100.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 27 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
100.0%
(07:43) LEGAS, Cooper pass to the right incomplete intended for EMMERS, Jacob thrown to the UNT24; QB hurried by DAWKINS, Terrell, clock 07:36. PENALTY UNT Roughing the Passer on DAWKINS, Terrell enforced 15 yards from the UNT33 to the UNT18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jack Wright for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+40
99.9%
Zach Evans run for 40 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+1
99.9%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 4
OPP 26
-3
99.9%
Makenzie Mcgill Ii run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:240% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
100.0%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Tim Carpenter run for 2 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Tim Carpenter pass complete to Josh Smith for 3 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+10
100.0%
Tim Carpenter run for 10 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
100.0%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Tim Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+15
100.0%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 15 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
100.0%
North Texas Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Blake Fann) to the UNT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Tim Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the UNT 16Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+11
100.0%
Tim Carpenter run for 11 yds to the UNT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Tim Carpenter pass complete to Connor Vaughn for 5 yds for a TD (Troop O'Neal KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
100.0%
(00:05) [NHSG] Kneel down by UNT at UNT35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:28
Wyatt Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q2 4:47
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 96 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 0:06
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 26 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com