2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreWAG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:02 · C.Davis 51 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-N.Marino, Holder-N.Salmon.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:07: Z.Mobley rushed for 22 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — FAU win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:30: J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by C.Stafford for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — WAG win probability +1.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WAG has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:11: M.Schwindt 25 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-J.Taikina, Holder-V.Cajano. — WAG win probability +0.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: WAG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:58: C.Campbell rushed for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — FAU win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:02: K.Weisman rushed for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — FAU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WAG made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 12:41WAG 4th & 5 at WAG 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q1 10:59FAU 4th & 4 at WAG 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%48% to convertField goal97.3%−0.132% to makePunt97.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:02FAU 4th & 9 at WAG 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%49% to makePunt97.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:24WAG 4th & 16 at WAG 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q2 6:22FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 34, up 10Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:11WAG 4th & 8 at FAU 8, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call5.7%90% to makePunt4.1%−1.5average punt
- Q3 11:31WAG 4th & 9 at FAU 37, down 7Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.4%32% to convertField goal8.2%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call8.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:24FAU 4th & 3 at WAG 11, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.8%50% to convertField goalTheir call91.4%−0.387% to makePunt87.9%−3.9average punt
- Q4 14:53WAG 4th & 2 at WAG 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 10:58WAG 4th & 13 at WAG 35, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 5:49FAU 4th & 1 at WAG 1, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%59% to convertField goal99.1%−0.294% to makePunt98.7%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WAG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:32FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:07FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30WAG Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%97% to makeGo for two4.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:58FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:02FAU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.3%45% to convert
- Q4 5:49FAU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2898% → 98%
WAGDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:472% → 3%
Q1 13:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
97.6%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by M.Didio for 8 yards. Tackled by P.Dunnam; K.Brown at WAG 30.Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+54
97.5%
J.Brown punts 54 yards to FAU 16, Center-WAG. O.Hayes returned punt from the FAU 16. O.Hayes ran out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:3298% → 97%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
97.5%
C.Fancher steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Henry. PENALTY on WAG-WAG, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+30
97.5%
C.Campbell rushed for 30 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Justice at WAG 47.Similar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.5%
C.Fancher steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Smith.Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.5%
C.Campbell rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by N.Gadson; J.Smith at WAG 46.Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+5
97.4%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by O.Hayes for 5 yards. Tackled by R.Dravet at WAG 41.Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+7
97.3%
C.Fancher scrambles for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Smith; J.Reilly at WAG 34.Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 9
OPP 33
0
97.2%
C.Davis 51 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-N.Marino, Holder-N.Salmon.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4INT3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4197% → 97%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
97.0%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by W.Sullivan for 15 yards. Tackled by J.Romulus at WAG 4.Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.0%
Z.Mobley rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Reilly; L.Barnes at WAG 2.Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.9%
C.Fancher pass INTERCEPTED at WAG End Zone. Intercepted by Z.Ricci at WAG End Zone. Tackled by FAU at WAG End Zone. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 3:293% → 4%
Q1 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
96.7%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by C.Tait for 10 yards. C.Tait ran out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD13 plays · 77 yds · 5:0896% → 98%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
96.4%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by L.Washington for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Romulus; J.Brown at FAU 30.Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
96.2%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by M.Johnson for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Boone at FAU 31.Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+15
96.1%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by Z.Mobley for 15 yards. Z.Mobley ran out of bounds.Similar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.3%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by M.Tucker for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Brown; J.Romulus at FAU 50.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 0
0
96.2%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by M.Johnson for yards. Tackled by R.Dravet at WAG 46. PENALTY on FAU-FAU, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+9
96.1%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by O.Hayes for 9 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at WAG 46.Similar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
96.0%
Z.Mobley rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Johnson; J.Justice at WAG 36.Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+18
96.0%
C.Fancher pass complete. Catch made by M.Johnson for 18 yards. Tackled by S.Martin at WAG 18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 7TD10 plays · 81 yds · 3:163% → 5%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
97.1%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.McDonald.Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
97.1%
S.Kamau rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Jerrels; J.Merrifield at WAG 21.Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+9
97.1%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by J.Bonelli for 9 yards. Tackled by D.Hill; E.Williams at WAG 30.Similar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+43
97.0%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by T.McDonald for 43 yards. Tackled by D.Hill at FAU 27.Similar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.7%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonelli.Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
96.7%
J.Bonelli steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for S.Kamau. PENALTY on WAG-WAG, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, declined.Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.6%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonelli.Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.6%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Stafford. PENALTY on WAG-C.Stafford, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, declined.Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.7%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by C.Stafford for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0095% → 95%
Q2 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
94.8%
K.Weisman pass complete. Catch made by W.Sullivan for 4 yards. Tackled by Z.Ricci; K.Valeriano at FAU 34.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 9FG14 plays · 52 yds · 4:036% → 7%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
94.5%
R.Spruill rushed for -3 yards. Tackled by D.Davis; C.Jones at WAG 37.Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
94.8%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.McDonald. PENALTY on FAU-D.Davis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
94.5%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.McDonald. PENALTY on FAU-K.Brown, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
94.5%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonelli. PENALTY on FAU-C.Goggins, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
93.4%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by R.Spruill for 17 yards. Tackled by FAU at FAU 8.Similar
Q2 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.3%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonelli.Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
92.9%
M.Schwindt 25 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-J.Taikina, Holder-V.Cajano.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10FUMBLE5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1593% → 93%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
93.4%
K.Weisman steps back to pass. Sacked at FAU 23 for -7 yards (J.Justice). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds and the play was overturned. K.Weisman steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for FAU.Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
93.3%
K.Weisman pass complete. Catch made by O.Hayes for 11 yards. Tackled by R.Dravet at FAU 34.Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-14
93.4%
K.Weisman steps back to pass. Sacked at FAU 20 for -14 yards (L.Barnes). PENALTY on FAU-K.Weisman, Intentional Grounding, 0 yards, accepted.Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 24
OWN 20
+8
93.2%
K.Weisman scrambles for 8 yards. K.Weisman FUMBLES, forced by S.Martin. Fumble RECOVERED by WAG-J.Justice at FAU 28. Tackled by FAU at FAU 28. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble and the play was upheld.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11INT6 plays · 46 yds · 0:4093% → 94%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
93.1%
K.Weisman pass complete. Catch made by L.Washington for 11 yards. Tackled by J.Reilly at FAU 35.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.1%
K.Weisman steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for FAU. PENALTY on FAU-FAU, Encroachment, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+26
93.0%
K.Weisman pass complete. Catch made by O.Hayes for 26 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Smith at WAG 44.Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.6%
K.Weisman pass INTERCEPTED at WAG 25. Intercepted by C.Davis at WAG 25. Tackled by M.Johnson at WAG 32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 3:297% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonelli. PENALTY on FAU-J.Ambush, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-7
92.2%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Sacked at WAG 29 for -7 yards (J.Merrifield).Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
92.7%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by D.Burrell for yards. D.Burrell ran out of bounds. PENALTY on FAU-E.Williams, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
91.6%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by D.Burrell for 6 yards. Tackled by W.Philord; J.Ambush at WAG 45.Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
91.1%
J.Cady scrambles for 2 yards. Tackled by FAU at WAG 47. PENALTY on FAU-E.Williams, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
90.7%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.McDonald.Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
90.7%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonelli.Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+29
91.6%
J.Brown punts 29 yards to FAU 8, Center-WAG. Fair catch by O.Hayes.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13FG12 plays · 81 yds · 4:5892% → 93%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+27
91.8%
C.Campbell rushed for 27 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Reilly at FAU 35.Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
92.4%
K.Weisman pass complete. Catch made by D.Henry for 15 yards. Tackled by J.Justice at WAG 45.Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
93.2%
K.Weisman pass complete. Catch made by D.Henry for 16 yards. Tackled by N.Gadson at WAG 18.Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
92.4%
K.Weisman steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Smith.Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 3
OPP 11
0
93.0%
M.Suarez 29 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-N.Marino, Holder-N.Salmon.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14TD7 plays · 68 yds · 3:1093% → 98%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
93.4%
K.Weisman pass complete. Catch made by O.Hayes for 15 yards. Tackled by WAG at WAG 14.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 1:563% → 3%
Q3 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
97.0%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by M.Cooper for 6 yards. Tackled by D.Hill at WAG 26.Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
97.2%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by M.Cooper for 7 yards. Tackled by E.Williams; M.Antoine at WAG 34.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
97.1%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Burrell.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16TD7 plays · 34 yds · 1:4598% → 99%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.7%
Z.Mobley rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Johnson; C.Darmody at WAG 31.Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.0%
K.Weisman steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for O.Hayes.Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
98.0%
Z.Mobley rushed for 12 yards. Tackled by C.Davis; N.Gadson at WAG 9.Similar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.0%
K.Weisman steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for FAU. PENALTY on WAG-J.Romulus, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q4 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.2%
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by T.McDonald for 4 yards. Tackled by C.Goggins at WAG 38.Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
99.3%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonelli.Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
99.3%
J.Cady steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Stafford.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18TD10 plays · 68 yds · 5:0099% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.3%
G.Sands rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Hansbrough; J.Romulus at WAG 47.Similar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+28
99.4%
X.Terrell rushed for 28 yards. Tackled by B.Coleman at WAG 2. PENALTY on WAG-K.Johnson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 1 yards, accepted.Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
X.Terrell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Romulus; T.Charles at WAG 1.Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
G.Sands rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by B.Hansbrough; J.Romulus at WAG 1.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19END OF GAME8 plays · 29 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
99.9%
X.Terrell rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Coleman; S.Cali at FAU 13.Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+6
99.9%
K.Shields-Dutton rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by S.Cali; A.Idriss at FAU 14.Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+9
99.9%
C.Cruver pass complete. Catch made by J.Coolman for 9 yards. Tackled by J.Boone; A.Idriss at FAU 23.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
K.Shields-Dutton rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by S.Cali; N.Wagner at FAU 29.Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
K.Shields-Dutton rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by B.Leal at FAU 30.Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+6
100.0%
K.Shields-Dutton rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Leal; P.Dempsey at FAU 36.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:58
C.Campbell rushed for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+4.3
TD · Q2 8:30
J.Cady pass complete. Catch made by C.Stafford for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-1.9
TD · Q2 12:07
Z.Mobley rushed for 22 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+1.6