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UTSA

UTSA 20 at East Carolina 30

ECU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:35 · Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense+15.1Pregame prior+1.0Garbage-time factor+10.5Score differential+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Jake Garcia run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK) — ECU win probability +13.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:45: Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK) — ECU win probability +16.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 53 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK) — ECU win probability +12.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:51: Noah Perez 42 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:38: Brandon High Jr. run for 66 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UTSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:51ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05ECU 4th & 1 at UTSA 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:55UTSA 4th & 5 at ECU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:25ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:09ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 13:03UTSA 4th & 1 at ECU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:28ECU 4th & 22 at UTSA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:05UTSA 4th & 5 at ECU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:52UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:44UTSA 4th & 10 at ECU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:13UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:13ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51ECU 4th & 5 at UTSA 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−4.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:38UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:07UTSA 4th & 3 at ECU 18, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%−1.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−14.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:35ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:29UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:25ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:32UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%−3.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:14ECU 4th & 8 at UTSA 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:55UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−0.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:13ECU 4th & 6 at UTSA 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:43UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36ECU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:45ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:49ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:38UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0958% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
57.9%
Jake Garcia sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the ECU 14 Jake Garcia fumbled, recovered by ECU Hampton Ergle , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+6
57.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 20Similar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
57.8%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4042% → 42%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
57.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
57.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 7 yds to the UTSA 45Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
57.8%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 47 Robert Henry fumbled, recovered by ECU Isaiah Brown-Murray I. Brown-Murray return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:4758% → 59%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+35
58.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Yannick Smith for 35 yds to the UTSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
58.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the UTSA 6Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
58.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the UTSA 3Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
58.4%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UTSA 3Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+21
58.6%
Noah Perez 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:0942% → 42%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.5%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+66
58.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 66 yds to the ECU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.1%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
57.8%
Chase Allen 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2958% → 58%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.1%
Jake Garcia run for 11 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
58.3%
London Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 33Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+12
58.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Tyler Savage for 12 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
58.5%
London Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
58.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:3742% → 48%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
57.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
57.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+11
58.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 11 yds to the UTSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
57.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 8 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
57.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 17 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
57.0%
Owen McCown run for no gain to the ECU 40Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+35
57.0%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 35 yds to the ECU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
56.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 6Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
56.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the ECU 5Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2754% → 52%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
53.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
53.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-5
53.4%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Hampton Ergle) to the ECU 26Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+3
53.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 3 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
52.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 14:5842% → 50%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+8
57.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 8 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
57.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 6 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
57.5%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the ECU 37Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
57.3%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
57.2%
Oscar Cardenas run for no gain to the ECU 35Similar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
52.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 1 yd to the UTSA 33Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
51.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+6
52.3%
Owen McCown run for 6 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+5
51.7%
East Carolina Penalty, Offsides (Yannick Smith) to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
50.6%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
50.4%
Owen McCown run for 1 yd to the UTSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 17:3457% → 50%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
57.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
57.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
57.3%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
57.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 10 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
57.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 10 yds to the UTSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
53.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-15
53.5%
Jake Garcia run for no gain to the UTSA 39 Jake Garcia fumbled, recovered by ECUSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 22
OPP 39
0
50.6%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 22
OPP 39
0
49.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 31 yds, downed at the UTSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10FG
21 plays · 75 yds · 7:1550% → 60%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
50.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 9 yds to the UTSA 17Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+3
48.8%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
49.0%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 15Similar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
49.1%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTSA 18Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-5
49.1%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 13Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+3
48.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 3 yds to the UTSA 16Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
48.2%
(08:05) MCCOWN, Owen pass deep to the left intercepted by HUFF, Jordan at the TSA38 intended for WILSON, Jace, no return, clock 07:58. PENALTY ECU Offsides on CRAIG, Ryheem declined ECU Personal Foul on LAMPLEY, J.D. enforced 15 yards from the TSA16 to the TSA31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
46.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 31Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
46.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen for 6 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+6
44.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 6 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.4%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
43.7%
Robert Henry run for 6 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-5
43.3%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 44Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
44.7%
East Carolina Penalty, Roughing the Passer on DANKAH, Samuel enforced (15 Yards) to the ECU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
42.7%
(05:15) MCCOWN, Owen pass deep to the left complete for 17 yards to CARPENTER, Chris caught at the ECU5 and advanced to the ECU5 (NASH, Dontavius), clock 05:09. PENALTY TSA Holding on HART, Makai enforced 10 yards from the ECU22 to the ECU32 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+3
42.8%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+8
42.9%
Robert Henry run for 8 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+4
42.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 4 yds to the ECU 17Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
40.0%
Chase Allen 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2941% → 58%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.9%
(03:05) GARCIA, Jake pass deep up the middle intercepted by ROBINSON, Ken at the TSA33 intended for WRIGHT JR., Winston. Robinson return for 0 yards to the TSA33, End of Play, clock 02:56. PENALTY TSA Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Ken enforced 15 yards to the ECU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+40
41.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 40 yds to the UTSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
44.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UTSA 19Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-1
44.1%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 20Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+5
42.6%
(02:00) GARCIA, Jake sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the TSA25 (LIGON, Jamal), clock 01:54. PENALTY TSA Face mask on ROBINSON, Jimmori enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the TSA20 to the TSA10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
44.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 6 yds to the UTSA 4Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
42.7%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 6Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
42.1%
(01:17) GARCIA, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Anthony thrown to the TSA0, clock 01:13. PENALTY TSA Pass Interference on HARRIS, Denver enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the TSA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
44.3%
Jake Garcia run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 3Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.8%
Jake Garcia run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
51.2%
(00:26) [SG] Kneel down by MCCOWN, Owen at TSA23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:20.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0850% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
50.3%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 22Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
50.7%
Owen McCown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 21Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
51.7%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (Makai Hart) to the UTSA 16Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+9
51.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 9 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
Caile Hogan punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:0052% → 70%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
49.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
48.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 12 yds to the ECU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
52.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
53.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
53.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UTSA 40Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+40
69.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:5935% → 35%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
64.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen for 28 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
60.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
61.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
63.2%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+35
65.3%
Caile Hogan punt for 35 yds , Brock Spalding returns for no gain to the ECU 6 , returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4666% → 71%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
66.3%
Brock Spalding run for no gain to the ECU 6Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
66.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 7Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+25
65.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Brock Spalding for 25 yds to the ECU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
68.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
68.3%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+16
67.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 16 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
71.1%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Zah Frazier return for no gain to the UTSA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:2834% → 35%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
66.4%
Brandon High Jr. run for 6 yds to the UTSA 8Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+5
66.9%
Brandon High Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
66.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 20 yds to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
64.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Brandon High Jr. for 3 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-1
63.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 35Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+11
66.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 11 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
61.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 3 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
61.4%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
62.7%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
65.5%
Caile Hogan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brock Spalding at the ECU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:1769% → 85%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
69.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
68.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 8 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+5
68.3%
(02:37) MONTGOMERY, London rush up the middle for no gain to the ECU23 (TAYLOR, Donyai), clock 02:32. PENALTY TSA Offsides on ROBINSON, Jimmori enforced 5 yards from the ECU23 to the ECU28 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
69.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
69.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to London Montgomery for 5 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+8
68.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 8 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
72.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 6 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+53
85.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 53 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:4616% → 17%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
84.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 19 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.4%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
81.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
82.9%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Andrew Wilson-Lamp return for no gain to the ECU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3486% → 85%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
85.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 36Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
86.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
85.5%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21INT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:2515% → 14%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
84.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 13Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
84.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 13
-5
85.9%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (Willie McCoy) to the UTSA 8Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+13
86.1%
Owen McCown run for 13 yds to the UTSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-12
84.8%
UTSA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Owen McCown) to the UTSA 9Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 22
OWN 9
+5
85.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the UTSA 14Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 17
OWN 14
-9
86.4%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Omar Rogers return for 9 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4488% → 96%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
88.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
88.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
87.8%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
95.6%
Noah Perez 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1310% → 20%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 5 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
89.4%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the UTSA 30Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.9%
Owen McCown run for 4 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+66
80.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 66 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Zah Frazier return for no gain to the ECU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2527% → 23%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
72.9%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the ECU 22Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
72.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+4
75.0%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the ECU 18Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
76.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2885% → 84%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
84.8%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 18Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
85.4%
Jake Garcia run for 6 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
85.4%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
84.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5918% → 16%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
82.1%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 33Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
84.3%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
82.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+40
84.5%
Caile Hogan punt for 40 yds , Brock Spalding returns for no gain to the ECU 22 , returns for no gain to the ECU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5588% → 89%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
87.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
88.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 27Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-4
88.2%
Jake Garcia sacked by Ronald Triplette for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 23Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
88.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4616% → 14%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
83.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 1 yd to the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
85.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 3 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
85.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1395% → 94%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.7%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UTSA 41Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
94.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
95.2%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
94.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 35 yds, downed at the UTSA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:088% → 7%
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
92.2%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
92.0%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
92.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 4
0
92.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 32FG
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3496% → 98%
Q4 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
95.7%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 5Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
96.2%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 6Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.1%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UTSA 6Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
98.3%
Noah Perez 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.0%
(00:12) [NH] Kneel down by MCCOWN, Owen at TSA24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:45
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q2 0:36
Jake Garcia run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q3 0:49
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 53 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com