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NAVY

Navy 41 at UAB 18

UAB
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Protective Stadium
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:02 · Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−38.3Score differential−22.0Garbage-time factor−7.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4Pregame prior−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:11: Jonah Delange 35 Yd Field Goal — UAB win probability +9.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Nathan Kent 77 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick) — NAVY win probability +12.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:36: Eli Heidenreich 74 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick) — NAVY win probability +11.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:08: Iverson Hooks 39 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Jonah Delange Kick) — UAB win probability +5.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:09: Lee Beebe Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jacob Zeno Pass to Kam Shanks for Two-Point Conversion) — UAB win probability +4.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:25UAB 4th & 3 at NAVY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:59UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57UAB 4th & 18 at UAB 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:43UAB 4th & 3 at NAVY 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:11UAB 4th & 4 at NAVY 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:36UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:49NAVY 4th & 5 at UAB 28, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:02NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:54NAVY 4th & 1 at midfield, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:14NAVY 4th & 4 at UAB 29, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:09UAB 4th & 4 at NAVY 24, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 0:31NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:36NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:08UAB Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:32NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:09UAB Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:2946% → 47%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.8%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 3 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
46.0%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 18 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
46.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Kam Shanks for 2 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
46.4%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+12
46.3%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Zeno,Jacob pass incomplete short middle to Thomas,Amare thrown to NAVY40, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference (Lane,Rayuan) 12 yards from UAB48 to NAVY40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
46.5%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 1 yd to the NAVY 39Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
46.7%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 5 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+1
46.9%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 1 yd to the NAVY 33Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-6
46.9%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:5154% → 56%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
46.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+8
46.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 8 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
46.5%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
46.4%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
46.6%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
46.5%
(08:43) No Huddle Horvath,Blake pass incomplete deep middle to Hutchison,Luke thrown to UAB08 PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Dempsey,Colby) 15 yards from UAB40 to UAB25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
43.9%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the UAB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 5:4542% → 39%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
42.2%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 8 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+2
42.2%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
41.9%
Jacob Zeno run for 8 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
42.0%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 9 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.8%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 6 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
41.7%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 3 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
41.3%
Jacob Zeno run for 6 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
41.2%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 3 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
40.3%
Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 12
50
-6
39.3%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 18
OWN 44
0
38.6%
Patrick Foley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 7:4862% → 69%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
37.9%
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 16Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+10
37.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
37.2%
PENALTY UAB Offside (Shepard Jr.,Derrick) 5 yards from NAVY26 to NAVY31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+3
36.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Daba Fofana for 3 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
36.2%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
35.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for 3 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
34.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
50
0
34.3%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
50
+8
34.2%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
34.0%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
33.0%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Horvath,Blake rush left for 22 yards gain to the UAB15 (Maddox,Adrian) PENALTY NAVY Illegal Formation (Bouton,Javan) 5 yards from UAB37 to UAB42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+8
32.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 8 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
32.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 5 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+14
31.6%
UAB Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (14 Yards) to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
30.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the UAB 6Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
30.6%
Alex Tecza 6 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5FG
22 plays · 57 yds · 7:4533% → 32%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
33.0%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Damous,Bryce) 5 yards from UAB26 to UAB21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
32.6%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+9
32.5%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 9 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
31.5%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 8 yds Bryce Damous fumbled, recovered by UAB Quez Yates for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
31.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Kam Shanks for 6 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
31.9%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 1 yd to the UAB 43Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
31.3%
Jacob Zeno run for 8 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
31.6%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 11 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
31.3%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Bedosky,Trey) 5 yards from NAVY38 to NAVY43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+5
30.5%
Jacob Zeno run for 5 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
30.7%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 8 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
30.4%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 1 yd to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+8
29.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Amare Thomas for 8 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
30.3%
Isaiah Jacobs run for no gain to the NAVY 23Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
23.8%
Jacob Zeno run for 6 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
22.8%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
31.8%
Jonah Delange 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3369% → 82%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+77
18.3%
Nathan Kent 77 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:1021% → 20%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
20.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 9 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-1
19.7%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 25 Jacob Zeno fumbled, recovered by UAB Lee Beebe Jr. , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1882% → 94%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.1%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
17.5%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+74
6.0%
Eli Heidenreich 74 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:475% → 3%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
5.0%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 5 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-10
4.7%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Zeno,Jacob pass incomplete short right to Beebe Jr.,Lee thrown to UAB35 QB hurried by Robinson,Landon PENALTY UAB Holding (Damous,Bryce) 10 yards from UAB20 to UAB10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+5
3.9%
Jacob Zeno run for 5 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+10
4.0%
Jacob Zeno run for 10 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
4.1%
Brandon Hawkins Jr. run for 14 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
4.0%
Jacob Zeno run for 4 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
3.9%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 1 yd to the UAB 44Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-5
3.4%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Morgan,JonDarius) 5 yards from UAB44 to UAB39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
3.2%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
3.1%
Patrick Foley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:4297% → 97%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
3.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 6 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+38
3.3%
Blake Horvath run for 23 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Ray Thornton III) to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
3.1%
PENALTY UAB Offside (Shepard Jr.,Derrick) 5 yards from UAB33 to UAB28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 5
OPP 28
-5
2.9%
PENALTY NAVY False Start (Purvis,Ben) 5 yards from UAB28 to UAB33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
2.8%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
2.8%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
2.5%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
3.3%
Nathan Kirkwood 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:283% → 11%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.1%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 6 yds to the UAB 26Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+20
3.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Malachi Holt-Bennett for 20 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
3.0%
Navy Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marcus Bleazard) to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
8.2%
Iverson Hooks 39 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Jonah Delange Kick)Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
10.9%
Thomas,Amare pass attempt Successful PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Holt-Bennett,Malachi) 15 yards from NAVY03 to NAVY18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5895% → 96%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.0%
Isaiah Bryant run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
4.8%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
4.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 5 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
4.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:476% → 5%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
5.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Kam Shanks for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 19Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+12
5.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 12 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
5.6%
Jacob Zeno run for 2 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
5.2%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 6 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+10
5.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Kam Shanks for 10 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
4.9%
Jacob Zeno pass intercepted Mbiti Williams Jr. return for no gain to the NAVY 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 4:1397% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
3.3%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+6
3.2%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
3.0%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+26
2.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
50
+6
2.6%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
2.3%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
2.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 23 yds to the UAB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
0.5%
Daba Fofana 16 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
Q4 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
0.5%
PENALTY NAVY False Start (Smith II,Hoke) 5 yards from UAB03 to UAB08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:540% → 5%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
0.4%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 67 yds Terrell McDonald fumbled, recovered by UAB for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
0.5%
Jacob Zeno run for 6 yds to the NAVY 2Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.8%
Lee Beebe Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jacob Zeno Pass to Kam Shanks for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FG
17 plays · 46 yds · 6:4598% → 100%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.4%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
2.3%
Brandon Chatman run for 12 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
2.0%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-5
1.9%
PENALTY NAVY False Start (Evans,Kendall) 5 yards from NAVY46 to NAVY41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
1.7%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
1.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 1
50
+4
1.3%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
1.2%
Shane Reynolds run for 8 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
1.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
1.0%
Shane Reynolds run for 3 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
1.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+2
0.8%
Shane Reynolds run for 2 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
0.5%
Nathan Kirkwood 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17INT
13 plays · 56 yds · 2:061% → 0%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.6%
Lee Witherspoon run for 15 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.3%
Armoni Goodwin run for 5 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
0.3%
Armoni Goodwin run for 6 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
0.3%
Armoni Goodwin run for 2 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+17
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 17 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.4%
Jacob Zeno run for 6 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for no gain to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+5
0.3%
Lee Witherspoon run for 5 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:31
Nathan Kent 77 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)
-12.3
TD · Q3 13:36
Eli Heidenreich 74 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)
-11.5
FG · Q2 1:11
Jonah Delange 35 Yd Field Goal
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com