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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreARMY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:20 · Dante Atton punt for 45 yds, downed at the ARMY 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:50: Bryson Daily run for 8 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +4.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:50: Bryson Daily run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:10: Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TEM win probability +2.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:19: Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 54 yds for a TD (Evan Simon pass to Antonio Jones for Two-Point Conversion) — TEM win probability +9.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:36: Bryson Daily run for 12 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:20TEM 4th & 18 at TEM 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%average punt
- Q1 5:19TEM 4th & 9 at ARMY 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q2 13:16ARMY 4th & 1 at TEM 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.4%70% to convertField goal77.2%−1.336% to makePunt77.2%−1.2average punt
- Q2 8:25TEM 4th & 5 at ARMY 48, down 14Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:23ARMY 4th & 27 at ARMY 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it80.5%−2.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.2%average punt
- Q2 1:43TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q2 1:12ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it82.7%−1.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q2 0:31TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it15.7%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q2 0:00ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 47, up 14Close callWent for it · 85.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.6%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt85.4%average punt
- Q3 9:06TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q4 13:42ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 21, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%average punt
- Q4 0:43TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 22, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:48ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.7%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:50ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.0%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:50ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:10TEM Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick2.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:19TEM Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick6.4%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.5%45% to convert
- Q4 7:36ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.3%45% to convert
- Q4 1:54ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 3:3417% → 19%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
16.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 10 yds to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
17.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the TEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-10
18.7%
Simon, Evan pass complete to Jones, Antonio for 49 yards to the ARMY0, PENALTY TEMPLE holding (Barajas, Diego) 10 yards to the TEMPLE41, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD3 plays · 86 yds · 1:2581% → 82%
TEMDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 4:2218% → 19%
Q1 8:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
18.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 3 yds to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
18.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-7
19.5%
Evan Simon sacked by Eric Ford for a loss of 7 yards to the TEM 45Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+6
19.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Tyrei Washington for 6 yds to the ARMY 49Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
19.3%
Dante Atton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaydan Mayes at the ARMY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD13 plays · 89 yds · 8:2081% → 85%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
19.7%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 27 yds to the TEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5FUMBLE9 plays · 27 yds · 3:1916% → 17%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 11 yds to the TEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+10
16.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the TEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
17.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Tyrei Washington for 2 yds to the TEM 49Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+5
17.0%
Dante Atton punt for 39 yds , Jaydan Mayes returns for 5 yds to the ARMY 14 Jaydan Mayes fumbled, recovered by ARMY Jaydan MayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 7 yds · 4:5684% → 84%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-17
14.9%
Bryson Daily run for a loss of 7 yards to the ARMY 31 Bryson Daily fumbled, recovered by ARMY Army Penalty, Illegal Batting (Noah Short) to the ARMY 21Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 27
OWN 21
0
16.0%
James Wagenseller punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3415% → 15%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
15.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 11 yds to the TEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2786% → 86%
Q2 1:12
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
14.4%
James Wagenseller punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3812% → 14%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
12.4%
Evan Simon sacked by Jacob Tuioti for a loss of 6 yards to the TEM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10DOWNS6 plays · 27 yds · 0:2487% → 88%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
13.4%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 27 yds to the ARMY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0686% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:338% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD6 plays · 52 yds · 3:3996% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:082% → 4%
Q3 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+18
1.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 18 yds to the TEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
1.2%
Simon, Evan pass complete to Jones, Antonio for no gain to the TEMPLE44, PENALTY ARMY face mask off-setting, PENALTY TEMPLE Ineligible Downfield on Pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
1.2%
Evan Simon sacked by Chance Keith for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 43Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+20
1.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Landon Morris for 20 yds to the ARMY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
3.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 2:2498% → 98%
Q4 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
2.3%
Noah Short run for 6 yds to the ARMY 33 Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (Parker Poloskey) to the ARMY 23Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
2.3%
James Wagenseller punt for 44 yds , Dante Wright returns for no gain to the TEM 21 Temple Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:182% → 11%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
2.2%
Evan Simon sacked by Elo Modozie for a loss of 5 yards to the TEM 30Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+10
2.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the TEM 40Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
2.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 6 yds to the TEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+54
11.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 54 yds for a TD (Evan Simon pass to Antonio Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3793% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18INT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:522% → 1%
ARMYDrive 19TD8 plays · 46 yds · 4:3399% → 100%
Q4 1:54
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
0.1%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Cam Schurr for 18 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20DOWNS5 plays · -12 yds · 1:050% → 0%
ARMYDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:19
Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 54 yds for a TD (Evan Simon pass to Antonio Jones for Two-Point Conversion)
+9
TD · Q3 10:50
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 11:50
Bryson Daily run for 8 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
-4.3