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MEM

Memphis 44 at Navy 56

NAVY
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:28 · Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−2.4Home team on offense+23.3Score differential+5.1Garbage-time factor+13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:24: Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 46 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +17.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:11: Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MEM win probability +22.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Blake Horvath run for 7 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +18.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:22: Mario Anderson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MEM win probability +22.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:23: Rayuan Lane III 86 Yd Interception Return (Nathan Kirkwood Kick) — NAVY win probability +20.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 9:50NAVY 4th & 17 at NAVY 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:19MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:14MEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−7.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:39NAVY 4th & 5 at MEM 40, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−1.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 12:15MEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−4.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q4 8:42MEM 4th & 10 at NAVY 10, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:28NAVY 4th & 6 at MEM 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:58MEM 4th & 3 at NAVY 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−1.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:22MEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:13MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:11NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:21MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:54NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:37NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:11NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:24NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:37MEM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:11MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:56NAVY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:22NAVY Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:49MEM Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.8%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:22MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.3%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.2%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:23NAVY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:4679% → 78%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
21.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 22 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
21.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
21.4%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 11 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
21.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 13 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
21.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 20Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+7
22.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
22.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 6 yds to the NAVY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
22.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
21.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2722% → 22%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.0%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.0%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
22.0%
Blake Horvath sacked by Javon Denis for a loss of 8 yards to the NAVY 18Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
22.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 38Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
22.0%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Demeer Blankumsee) to the MEM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2678% → 78%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+1
22.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 1 yd to the MEM 34Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
22.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+10
22.5%
Seth Henigan run for 10 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+8
22.3%
Joshua Sloan punt for 41 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 5:0123% → 29%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
22.6%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
23.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
23.1%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
23.1%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 40Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+20
23.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Thomas Scully for 20 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
24.0%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+8
24.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 8 yds to the MEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
24.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 16 yds to the MEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
24.9%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the MEM 5Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.5%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4973% → 77%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.0%
Ja'Koby Banks run for 3 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
27.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 8 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
26.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
26.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete. PENALTY NAVY Offsides (Jacob) enforced 5 yards from the MEM 38 to the MEM 43 Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+57
22.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 57 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2724% → 31%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
24.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 27 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
25.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+39
30.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 39 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2971% → 70%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
28.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+1
28.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the MEM 5Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 5
-1
29.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Colin Ramos for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 4Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 10
OWN 4
0
30.5%
Joshua Sloan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:3732% → 42%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
31.5%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 49Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+26
31.8%
Isaiah Bryant run for 36 yds to the MEM 15 Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+19
31.4%
Alex Tecza run for 19 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
33.0%
Alex Tecza pass complete to Blake Horvath for 13 yds to the MEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
33.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the MEM 18Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
34.4%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the MEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
41.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 7:2361% → 61%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
39.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
50
+4
37.8%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
38.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 2 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
39.8%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
40.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
40.2%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
41.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
40.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
40.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 6 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
42.4%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
41.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+4
41.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 4 yds to the NAVY 11Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
43.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
39.1%
Caden Costa 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0242% → 60%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.6%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+46
41.8%
Blake Horvath run for 46 yds to the MEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
45.9%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the MEM 23Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
46.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the MEM 17Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
45.2%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the MEM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
46.9%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 17Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
46.5%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+14
45.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 14 yds to the MEM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.9%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
55.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds to the MEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3159% → 81%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.1%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
59.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 9 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
61.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+9
63.2%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
81.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 46 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:4527% → 40%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
73.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 33Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+23
73.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 23 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
73.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
74.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 7 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+37
60.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 37 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:5265% → 70%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
65.3%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 22Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+23
65.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 23 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
69.5%
Blake Horvath sacked by Chandler Martin for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 40Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+15
69.2%
Amin Hassan run for 15 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.4%
Eli Heidenreich pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
71.3%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
71.1%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
70.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 35 yds, downed at the MEM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 5:2731% → 51%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
69.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the MEM 10Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+11
70.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 11 yds to the MEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
70.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 6 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
70.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+21
72.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 21 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
69.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 10 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
70.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
71.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 2 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+11
72.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 11 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
70.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the NAVY 16Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+5
71.3%
Navy Penalty, Personal Foul (Andrew Duhart) to the NAVY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1260% → 85%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+60
62.2%
Blake Horvath run for 60 yds to the MEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
66.1%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the MEM 7Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.8%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:0519% → 12%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
81.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 9 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+11
79.4%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 11 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
80.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
81.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 2 yds to the MEM 48Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+7
82.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
82.9%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
82.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 16 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
82.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
85.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 6 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+9
86.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds to the NAVY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.9%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the NAVY 10 Brandon Thomas fumbled, recovered by MEM Brendan Doyle B. Doyle return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
86.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
87.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
88.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
97.5%
Blake Horvath run for 90 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:204% → 12%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 7 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+37
95.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 37 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
96.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+36
88.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 36 yds for a TD (Seth Henigan pass to Koby Drake for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1592% → 93%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
91.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the MEM 47Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
92.9%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
93.0%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-5
92.8%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Cam Nichols) to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
92.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 3:018% → 30%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
91.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 12 yds to the MEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
90.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
90.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
92.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 6 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 26 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.0%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
91.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+7
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 7 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+16
92.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 16 yds to the NAVY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
92.0%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the NAVY 1Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.7%
Mario Anderson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22INT TD
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:5729% → 3%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
71.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 8 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
75.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
77.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 4 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
77.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 7 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+9
77.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 9 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
76.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-86
96.9%
Rayuan Lane III 86 Yd Interception Return (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:193% → 3%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-15
97.5%
Memphis Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jonah Gambill) to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
97.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brady Kluse for 13 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:22
Mario Anderson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-22.3
TD · Q3 1:11
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-22
TD · Q4 0:23
Rayuan Lane III 86 Yd Interception Return (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com