2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Lowe at the GWEB 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:35: Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 30 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK) — GWEB win probability +16.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:09: Trexler Ivey pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CLT win probability +20.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:20: Trexler Ivey pass complete to Sean Brown for 28 yds for a TD (Trexler Ivey pass to Sean Brown for Two-Point Conversion) — CLT win probability +48.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:55: Hahsaun Wilson run for 39 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — CLT win probability +36.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:55: Carson Gresock run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — GWEB win probability +30.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7GWEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 13:05CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it82.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q1 9:40GWEB 4th & 1 at CLT 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.0%71% to convertField goal18.9%−0.164% to makePunt18.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:47GWEB 4th & 8 at CLT 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.9%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call20.0%85% to makePunt19.1%−0.8average punt
- Q2 15:00GWEB 4th & 3 at CLT 10, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snapGo for it24.2%49% to convertField goalTheir call24.0%−0.288% to makePunt22.0%−2.3average punt
- Q2 5:55CLT 4th & 20 at CLT 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snapGo for it58.1%−2.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.2%average punt
- Q2 0:35GWEB 4th & 6 at CLT 30, up 10Close callWent for it · 45.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.4%−0.540% to convertField goal45.9%56% to makePunt44.2%−1.8average punt
- Q3 9:02GWEB 4th & 9 at CLT 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snapGo for it65.7%−1.131% to convertField goalTheir call66.8%62% to makePunt59.0%−7.8average punt
- Q3 6:08CLT 4th & 4 at GWEB 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.5%48% to convertField goal27.8%−1.747% to makePunt26.6%−2.9average punt
- Q3 1:23CLT 4th & 8 at GWEB 8, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snapGo for it20.6%−1.326% to convertField goalTheir call21.9%90% to makePunt9.8%−12.0average punt
- Q3 0:27GWEB 4th & 18 at GWEB 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it75.5%−5.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.9%average punt
- Q4 14:41CLT 4th & 18 at CLT 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it18.6%−2.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.3%average punt
- Q4 13:04GWEB 4th & 15 at GWEB 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it82.1%−4.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q4 9:35CLT 4th & 7 at GWEB 25, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 15.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.7%−1.236% to convertField goal14.9%66% to makePunt8.6%−6.3average punt
- Q4 7:46GWEB 4th & 3 at GWEB 32, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snapGo for it82.1%−0.652% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%average punt
- Q4 4:40GWEB 4th & 10 at GWEB 25, down 7Close callWent for it · 10.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.0%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.4%average punt
- Q4 0:26CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 47, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it75.9%−4.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GWEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 8:04GWEB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.0%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:35GWEB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.4%97% to makeGo for two57.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:09CLT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick24.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call24.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:20CLT Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick44.0%−1.897% to makeGo for twoTheir call45.8%45% to convert
- Q4 4:55CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−1.645% to convert
- Q4 1:55GWEB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 2.2 ptsWent for two · failedKick40.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call38.3%−2.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5584% → 83%
GWEBDrive 2FG13 plays · 69 yds · 6:0317% → 20%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
82.5%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 35 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
82.0%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Jordan Bly for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 37Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+11
82.0%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Camden Overton for 11 yds to the CLT 26Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+11
81.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Jordan Bly for 11 yds to the CLT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3FUMBLE7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0581% → 80%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
80.7%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Colin Weber for 18 yds to the GWEB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-24
79.7%
Deshawn Purdie sacked for a loss of 24 yards to the GWEB 29 Deshawn Purdie fumbled, recovered by GWEB Justin Isler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 4MISSED FG7 plays · 61 yds · 3:2821% → 23%
CLTDrive 5FUMBLE7 plays · 33 yds · 3:1277% → 77%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
77.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Jairus Mack for 39 yds to the GWEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+8
78.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 8 yds to the GWEB 34Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
78.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 4 yds to the GWEB 26Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-21
77.1%
Deshawn Purdie sacked for a loss of 21 yards to the GWEB 48 Deshawn Purdie fumbled, recovered by GWEB Trevor Moffitt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6INT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3126% → 26%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
74.1%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Jordan Bly for a loss of 2 yards to the GWEB 46Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-5
73.4%
(10:14) GRESOCK, Carson rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the CLT38 (BALFOUR, Dontae), clock 10:08. PENALTY Before the snap, GWU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the CLT49 to the GWU46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+19
74.0%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 19 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
71.8%
Tyler Ridell pass intercepted Al-Ma'hi Ali return for no gain to the CLT 26Similar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
74.1%
(09:04) PURDIE, Deshawn pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HOPKINS, Adam thrown to the GWU40, clock 09:01. PENALTY GWU Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Miles enforced 15 yards to the CLT41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7INT TD2 plays · 15 yds · 0:5775% → 66%
CLTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 2:1564% → 63%
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
64.3%
(07:53) PURDIE, Deshawn pass up the middle complete for 0 yards to RUTLEDGE, Henry caught at the CLT20 and advanced to the CLT21 (BELL, Ayden), clock 07:46. PENALTY GWU Personal Foul on BELL, Ayden enforced 15 yards from the CLT21 to the CLT36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
64.6%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 4 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-9
61.7%
Charlotte Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Deshawn Purdie) to the CLT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 9TD15 plays · 99 yds · 5:0837% → 64%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+31
60.0%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Giovanni Adopte for 31 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
57.1%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Edward Saydee for 9 yds to the CLT 36Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-10
53.3%
Gardner-Webb Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CLT 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+2
52.6%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Edward Saydee for 2 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+30
35.7%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 30 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FG7 plays · 28 yds · 0:2943% → 47%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
43.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Colin Weber for 7 yds to the CLT 42Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+23
45.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Isaiah Myers for 23 yds to the GWEB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
54.7%
(00:03) [NHSG] Kneel down by CLT at GWU37 (team loss of 2), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 11FG14 plays · 48 yds · 5:5854% → 71%
Q3 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
44.3%
(13:52) RIDELL, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ADOPTE, Giovanni thrown to the CLT45, clock 13:46. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on BOOKER, Trevon enforced 15 yards to the GWU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+18
40.3%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 18 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
38.4%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 7 yds to the CLT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 41 yds · 2:5432% → 30%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Adam Hopkins IV for 8 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
32.4%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Sean Brown for 16 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
32.8%
Deshawn Purdie sacked by Raquon Hartley for a loss of 10 yards to the CLT 39Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+21
29.7%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 21 yds to the GWEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
31.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 6 yds to the GWEB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 13INT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2577% → 84%
CLTDrive 14FG7 plays · 35 yds · 3:1030% → 27%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
30.3%
Deshawn Purdie sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Deshawn Purdie fumbled, recovered by CLT , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 17
50
+42
27.4%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 42 yds to the GWEB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
27.8%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Bryce Kennon for a loss of 3 yards to the GWEB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5684% → 84%
CLTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:3826% → 22%
Q3 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
25.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Isaiah Myers for 3 yds to the GWEB 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-11
25.1%
Deshawn Purdie sacked by Antonio O'Berry for a loss of 11 yards to the CLT 40Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 18
OWN 40
+10
21.7%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 38 yds , Anthony Lowe returns for 10 yds to the GWEB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2790% → 90%
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
10.3%
Gardner-Webb Penalty, Delay Of Game (Giovanni Adopte) to the GWEB 27Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 15
OWN 27
-7
10.7%
Tyler Ridell sacked by Stephen Sings V for a loss of 7 yards to the GWEB 20Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 22
OWN 20
+7
10.1%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 7 yds to the GWEB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4922% → 35%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
22.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 14 yds to the GWEB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
22.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 5 yds to the GWEB 38Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-10
22.9%
Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kendall Stanley) to the GWEB 48Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-5
20.9%
(11:54) IVEY, Trexler pass up the middle complete for 11 yards to WILSON, Hahsaun caught at the GWU50 and advanced to the GWU37 (NJENGE, Pius), clock 11:45. PENALTY Before the snap, CLT Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the GWU48 to the CLT47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+25
19.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 25 yds to the GWEB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+14
14.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Sean Brown for 14 yds to the GWEB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
35.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2378% → 83%
CLTDrive 20TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1922% → 71%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
22.4%
Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Holding (O'Mega Blake) to the CLT 19Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
21.8%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 9 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
21.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 24 yds to the GWEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
71.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Sean Brown for 28 yds for a TD (Trexler Ivey pass to Sean Brown for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 21INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
56.9%
Gardner-Webb Penalty, Illegal Block (Yards) to the GWEB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22TD1 play · 39 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 23TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0010% → 47%
Q4 4:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+35
91.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Giovanni Adopte for 35 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
87.3%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Ty Lyles for 15 yds to the CLT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
85.5%
Tyler Ridell sacked by Demon Clowney for a loss of 6 yards to the CLT 31Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+30
87.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Caleb Borders for 30 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.5%
Carson Gresock run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 1:2776% → 82%
Q4 0:26
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
81.6%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Lowe at the GWEB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 25END OF GAME3 plays · 12 yds · 0:1928% → 20%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:20
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Sean Brown for 28 yds for a TD (Trexler Ivey pass to Sean Brown for Two-Point Conversion)
+48.6
TD · Q4 4:55
Hahsaun Wilson run for 39 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
+36.8
TD · Q4 1:55
Carson Gresock run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-30.7