2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadTXSO aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreTXSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:23 · Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the TXSO 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:43: Dean Connors run for 5 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — TXSO win probability +0.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:15: E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 4 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:48: E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:59: Tyson Flowers 34 Yd Interception Return (Enock Gota Kick) — RICE win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:46: Dean Connors run for 5 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TXSO made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 6:23TXSO 4th & 3 at TXSO 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q1 6:23RICE 4th & 1 at TXSO 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.3%71% to convertField goal95.1%−0.180% to makePunt94.7%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:53TXSO 4th & 17 at TXSO 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q1 13:37TXSO 4th & 9 at TXSO 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q1 12:34TXSO 4th & 9 at TXSO 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q2 12:57RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 45, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q2 11:55TXSO 4th & 9 at TXSO 3, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q2 8:08TXSO 4th & 22 at TXSO 24, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−1.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 4:37TXSO 4th & 19 at TXSO 16, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 1:58TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 40, down 35Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:41RICE 4th & 3 at TXSO 39, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%53% to convertField goal99.3%−<0.136% to makePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:02RICE 4th & 4 at TXSO 7, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%41% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%−<0.191% to makePunt98.9%−0.5average punt
- Q3 11:57TXSO 4th & 10 at TXSO 25, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 8:59RICE 4th & 9 at TXSO 26, up 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%64% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:39TXSO 4th & 16 at TXSO 19, down 55Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:01TXSO 4th & 15 at TXSO 20, down 62Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TXSO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:43RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:15RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:48RICE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:59RICE Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:46RICE Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:37RICE Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:04RICE Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:08RICE Touchdown, up 61 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:07RICE Touchdown, up 68 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:14TXSO Touchdown, down 63 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRICEDrive 1TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:5196% → 96%
Q1 12:34
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+10
96.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden Groen for 10 yds to the TXSO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+23
96.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 23 yds to the TXSO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
96.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Micah Barnett for 8 yds to the TXSO 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 2PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 2:154% → 5%
Q1 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
95.7%
Jace Wilson pass complete to Donald McKinney for 6 yds to the TXSO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD12 plays · 56 yds · 5:0896% → 96%
Q1 6:23
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
95.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden Groen for no gain to the RICE 48Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+15
95.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 15 yds to the TXSO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+13
95.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 13 yds to the TXSO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
95.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 5 yds to the TXSO 21Similar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
95.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 11 yds to the TXSO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 4 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 4PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:224% → 4%
TXSODrive 5PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 13:374% → 5%
Q1 13:37
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+13
96.4%
Christian Avelar punt for 35 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 13 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+13
96.3%
Christian Avelar punt for 35 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 13 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.6%
PENALTY Rice Holding (Fresch,Sean) 10 yards from TSU25 to TSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
95.5%
PENALTY TSU False Start (Leary,Trenton) 5 yards from TSU39 to TSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5696% → 96%
TXSODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q2 11:55
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+1
95.7%
Christian Avelar punt for 32 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 1 yd to the TXSO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD1 play · 34 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
97.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 9INT TD4 plays · 0 yds · 0:493% → 1%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
98.6%
PENALTY TSU Personal Foul (Wilson,Jace) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 10PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q2 10:59
2ND & 16
OWN 30
-6
98.7%
Jordon Davis sacked by Gabriel Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the TXSO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD3 plays · 47 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
98.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden Groen for 2 yds to the TXSO 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 12PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 2:091% → 0%
Q2 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Jordon Davis pass complete to Kerien Charlo for no gain to the TXSO 26Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
99.3%
Jordon Davis sacked by Blaise Tita for a loss of 10 yards to the TXSO 16Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.6%
Christian Avelar punt for 29 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for no gain to the TXSO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.3%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted MJ Hinson Jr. return for no gain to the TXSO 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 14PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:311% → 0%
RICEDrive 15FG18 plays · 67 yds · 1:5699% → 100%
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+11
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 11 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 8 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 5 yds to the TXSO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 7 yds to the TXSO 39Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+11
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 11 yds to the TXSO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 5 yds to the TXSO 23Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+10
99.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 10 yds to the TXSO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17TD3 plays · 71 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
TXSODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:400% → 0%
RICEDrive 19FG6 plays · 29 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 20INT8 plays · 17 yds · 1:270% → 0%
RICEDrive 21TD12 plays · 78 yds · 6:28100% → 100%
TXSODrive 22PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
PENALTY TSU False Start (Cain,Braden) 5 yards from TSU25 to TSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Jordon Davis pass complete to Da'Veon Ford for a loss of 2 yards to the TXSO 18Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+8
100.0%
Christian Avelar punt for 34 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 8 yds to the TXSO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23TD3 plays · 45 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
TXSODrive 24PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:070% → 0%
RICEDrive 25TD2 plays · 28 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
TXSODrive 26TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:530% → 0%
Q4 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Jordon Davis pass complete to Kordell Rodgers for 5 yds to the TXSO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+6
100.0%
Jordon Davis pass complete to Kordell Rodgers for 6 yds to the TXSO 49Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+12
100.0%
Shotgun Davis,Jordon rush left for 0 yards to the Rice24 (Nwajuaku,Chibby; Stevenson,Peyton) PENALTY Rice Personal Foul (Jean,Jonathan) 12 yards from Rice24 to Rice12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
Jordon Davis pass complete to Kordell Rodgers for 12 yds for a TD (Gustavo Romero KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 27END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:48
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 10:59
Tyson Flowers 34 Yd Interception Return (Enock Gota Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q1 1:15
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 4 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
+1.1