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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 20 at North Texas 35

UNT
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:09 · Sawyer Evans punt for 17 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+35.6Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:50: Sam Vidlak pass complete to Isaiah Davis for 33 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK) — SFA win probability +3.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 28 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +12.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:57: Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +5.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:47: Chris Campos 21 yd FG GOOD — SFA win probability +2.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:16: Damashja Harris run for 80 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SFA made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 11:26SFA 4th & 22 at UNT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:55SFA 4th & 4 at SFA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27UNT 4th & 2 at SFA 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:50SFA 4th & 3 at SFA 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:39SFA 4th & 1 at UNT 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:23UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:51SFA 4th & 5 at UNT 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:27UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:52SFA 4th & 1 at SFA 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.9%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:08SFA 4th & 7 at UNT 31, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:02SFA 4th & 7 at SFA 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:47SFA 4th & 3 at UNT 3, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:35UNT 4th & 18 at SFA 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    88.9%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:31SFA 4th & 9 at SFA 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:54UNT 4th & 3 at SFA 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.5%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:28SFA 4th & 12 at UNT 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:17SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 43, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:36SFA 4th & 9 at UNT 24, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:30UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 44, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:32SFA 4th & 13 at SFA 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SFA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:51UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:27UNT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:08SFA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:50SFA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:15UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:57UNT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:16UNT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1INT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2593% → 92%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 24Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
92.7%
(14:38) QB Keeper MORRIS, Chandler rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the UNT34 (COTTON, Josiah), clock 14:34. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNT24 to the UNT19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-6
92.6%
Chandler Morris sacked by Jermaine Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 13Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+5
92.6%
(14:01) MORRIS, Chandler sacked for a loss of 9 yards at the UNT4 (AUSTIN, Aaron), clock 13:58. PENALTY SFA Offsides on ANYANWU, Tony enforced 5 yards from the UNT13 to the UNT18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-17
92.4%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Luke Watson return for 17 yds to the UNT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 2FG
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:588% → 8%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
92.4%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 1 yd to the UNT 10Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
92.2%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 2 yds to the UNT 8Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-10
92.0%
Sam Vidlak sacked by Terrell Dawkins for a loss of 10 yards to the UNT 18Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 17
OPP 18
-5
92.0%
(11:35) CAMPOS, Chris field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at UNT25], score nullified by penalty, clock 11:31. PENALTY Before the snap, SFA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNT18 to the UNT23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 22
OPP 23
+40
91.9%
Chris Campos 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3492% → 92%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.8%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
91.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 13 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
91.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 14 yds to the SFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
91.6%
PRICE, Juwaun rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the SFA45, End of Play, clock 10:15. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT False Start enforced 5 yards from the SFA46 to the UNT49. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+51
91.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 51 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:558% → 8%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.7%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 1 yd to the SFA 26Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
91.6%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 5 yds to the SFA 31Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
91.5%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
91.7%
Callum Eddings punt for 50 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:2191% → 92%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+38
91.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 38 yds to the SFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
91.6%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the SFA 40Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
91.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 6 yds to the SFA 34Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+9
91.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 9 yds to the SFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
91.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 9 yds to the SFA 16Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+9
91.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 9 yds to the SFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
91.3%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the SFA 1Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the SFA 1Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
91.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 2Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 2 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:358% → 8%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.8%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 4 yds to the SFA 29Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.7%
Qualan Jones run for no gain to the SFA 29Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
91.8%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 3 yds to the SFA 32Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
91.8%
Callum Eddings punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7INT TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3791% → 90%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
91.4%
Juwaun Price run for 18 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
91.6%
(03:19) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for YOUNG, Wyatt thrown to the SFA37, clock 03:16. PENALTY SFA Pass Interference on MULLEN, Jaheim enforced 14 yards to the SFA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
91.7%
Juwaun Price run for 10 yds to the SFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
91.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for a loss of 3 yards to the SFA 33Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 13
OPP 33
-70
90.2%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Jermaine Brown return for 70 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5890% → 89%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
89.7%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 22Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-7
89.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 15Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+13
89.1%
Juwaun Price run for 13 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 17 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2411% → 12%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.6%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 5 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the UNT 40Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
88.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 4 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
88.5%
Jerrell Wimbley run for no gain to the UNT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -24 yds · 1:3789% → 88%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-15
88.8%
(13:30) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CARNES, Dalton thrown to the SFA30, clock 13:26. PENALTY UNT Face mask on MOORE III, Larry enforced 15 yards from the UNT36 to the UNT21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 25
OWN 21
-1
88.6%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 20Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 26
OWN 20
-8
88.3%
Chandler Morris sacked by Tony Anyanwu for a loss of 8 yards to the UNT 12Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 34
OWN 12
0
87.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jerrell Wimbley at the SFA 38Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
87.9%
(11:58) VIDLAK, Sam pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FLUELLEN, Rohan thrown to the UNT46, clock 11:55. PENALTY UNT Holding on TEXADA, Ridge enforced 10 yards from the SFA38 to the SFA48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 11TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0312% → 17%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
87.7%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+9
87.4%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Lavar Lindo for 9 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
87.1%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Lavar Lindo for 6 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
86.4%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+33
82.6%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Isaiah Davis for 33 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1984% → 83%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
83.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
83.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
83.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kylon Harris at the SFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 67 yds · 7:1017% → 26%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
83.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 1 yd to the SFA 24Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
83.4%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Blaine Green for 13 yds to the SFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
82.3%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds to the SFA 39Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
80.9%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+14
81.4%
Qualan Jones run for 14 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.2%
Qualan Jones run for no gain to the UNT 47Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
79.7%
(06:46) VIDLAK, Sam pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HARRIS, Kylon thrown to the UNT30; QB hurried by WESLOSKI, Ethan, clock 06:40. PENALTY UNT Roughing the Passer on WESLOSKI, Ethan enforced 15 yards from the UNT47 to the UNT32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
78.8%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 4 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
78.3%
Jerrell Wimbley run for no gain to the UNT 28Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+1
78.5%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Blaine Green for 1 yd to the UNT 27Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 5
OPP 27
0
79.1%
Sam Vidlak pass intercepted Ridge Texada return for no gain to the UNT 10Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
73.7%
PENALTY UNT Unsportsmanlike Conduct on STARLING, Taylor SFA Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WILLIAMS, Anthony , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2480% → 77%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
80.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the UNT 10Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-5
79.3%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 5Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+18
78.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 18 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
79.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
78.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-6
77.9%
Chandler Morris sacked by Victor Idusuyi for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 17Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
76.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kylon Harris at the SFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3323% → 21%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.7%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the SFA 40Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
75.3%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the SFA 43Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
75.2%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the SFA 44Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
76.2%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
78.6%
(01:47) QB Keeper MORRIS, Chandler rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the SFA36, End of Play, clock 01:43. PENALTY UNT Holding on ASENUGA, Leke enforced 10 yards from the SFA44 to the UNT46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1376% → 87%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 20
OWN 46
-3
76.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 43Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 23
OWN 43
+9
75.7%
Damashja Harris run for 9 yds to the SFA 48Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+5
75.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 5 yds to the SFA 43Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+15
74.6%
(00:26) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for YOUNG, Wyatt thrown to the SFA10, clock 00:20. PENALTY SFA Pass Interference on COTTON, Josiah enforced 15 yards to the SFA28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
86.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 28 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
84.8%
(00:14) [NH] Kneel down by VIDLAK, Sam at SFA22 (team loss of 3), clock 00:07.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:5115% → 16%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
85.2%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 18 yds to the SFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
84.1%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 10 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
83.1%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 13 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
82.1%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 3 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
81.7%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
82.7%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+5
83.8%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 5 yds to the UNT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:0284% → 92%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
83.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 16 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
84.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Juwaun Price for 12 yds to the SFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
85.1%
(12:03) PRICE, Juwaun rush up the middle for a gain of 16 yards to the SFA30 (AUSTIN, Aaron), clock 11:56. PENALTY UNT Holding on DICKSON III, Johnny enforced 10 yards from the SFA46 to the UNT44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+14
83.9%
Damashja Harris run for 14 yds to the SFA 42Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
84.8%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the SFA 39Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-5
85.8%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the SFA 44Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+27
85.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 27 yds to the SFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
86.4%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the SFA 17Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+10
86.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 10 yds to the SFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
86.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:539% → 8%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.1%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 3 yds to the SFA 28Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.3%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+36
91.6%
Callum Eddings punt for 36 yds , DT Sheffield returns for no gain to the UNT 34 , returns for no gain to the UNT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21FG
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:0711% → 13%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
89.0%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 31 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.3%
Sam Vidlak run for no gain to the UNT 3Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
86.8%
Chris Campos 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:0190% → 89%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
89.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 49Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+17
90.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 17 yds to the SFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the SFA 32Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
90.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-10
90.3%
(05:14) MORRIS, Chandler pass to the left complete for 4 yards to SIDES, Landon caught at the SFA36 and advanced to the SFA28 (DEMMINGS, Charles), out of bounds, clock 05:10. PENALTY UNT Illegal Block in the Back on CONWRIGHT, Blair enforced 10 yards from the SFA32 to the SFA42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 18
OPP 42
0
90.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
89.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kylon Harris at the SFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0212% → 11%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
88.0%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
88.2%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Qualan Jones for 1 yd to the SFA 12Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
88.7%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
89.1%
Callum Eddings punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:2591% → 93%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
90.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+7
90.1%
Chandler Morris run for 7 yds to the SFA 48Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+20
91.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 20 yds to the SFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
92.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-30
92.8%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Bruce Harmon return for 30 yds to the SFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2810% → 9%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
89.7%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 10 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-9
88.6%
Sam Vidlak sacked by Chavez Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the SFA 46Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+7
90.5%
Sam Vidlak run for 7 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
90.1%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
91.2%
Callum Eddings punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:0591% → 97%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
91.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
91.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 3
OWN 17
-26
90.9%
(14:59) MORRIS, Chandler pass to the left complete for 26 yards to SIDES, Landon caught at the UNT23 and advanced to the UNT43 (BROWN, Jermaine), clock 14:52. PENALTY UNT Personal Foul on DICKSON III, Johnny enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the UNT17 to the UNT10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+10
90.7%
(14:30) MORRIS, Chandler pass to the left incomplete intended for SIDES, Landon thrown to the UNT19, clock 14:28. PENALTY SFA Holding on DEMMINGS, Charles enforced 10 yards from the UNT10 to the UNT20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
96.7%
Damashja Harris run for 80 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:385% → 4%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.3%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 8 yds to the SFA 33Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
94.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 6 yds to the SFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.0%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
95.0%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 4 yds to the SFA 43Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
95.3%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for no gain to the SFA 43Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+10
95.4%
Sam Vidlak run for 10 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
95.2%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Chris Taylor for 8 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+14
95.0%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Rohan Fluellen for 14 yds to the UNT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
94.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 1 yd to the UNT 24Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
94.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the UNT 24Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
95.8%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 9
OPP 24
0
96.1%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
98.3%
Damashja Harris run for 4 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+15
98.3%
MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WARD JR., Damon thrown to the UNT48, clock 09:09. PENALTY SFA Pass Interference on DEMMINGS, Charles enforced 15 yards to the UNT43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
98.5%
(09:08) HARRIS, Damashja rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards to the SFA45 (SEARS, Aaron), clock 09:03. PENALTY UNT Holding on LEE, Ma'Kyi enforced 10 yards from the UNT43 to the UNT33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+17
98.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 17 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 3
50
-5
98.5%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Ma'Kyi Lee) to the UNT 45Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
98.5%
Damashja Harris run for 4 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
98.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 4
OWN 49
-5
98.4%
North Texas Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UNT 44Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
98.4%
Sawyer Evans punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kylon Harris at the SFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:513% → 3%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-3
96.9%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFA 18Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
97.1%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
97.1%
Callum Eddings punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 30END OF GAME
11 plays · 46 yds · 5:5399% → 99%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
98.7%
Damashja Harris run for 14 yds to the SFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
98.8%
Damashja Harris run for 6 yds to the SFA 38Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+15
98.9%
(05:03) HARRIS, Damashja rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the SFA34 (BOBINO, Edward;TOOKER, Dylan), clock 04:59. PENALTY SFA Face mask on LEWIS, Lane enforced 15 yards from the SFA38 to the SFA23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
98.9%
Damashja Harris run for 4 yds to the SFA 19Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
99.0%
Damashja Harris run for 5 yds to the SFA 14Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
99.1%
Damashja Harris run for 2 yds to the SFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
99.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 11 yds to the SFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
99.2%
(01:59) [SG] Kneel down by MORRIS, Chandler at SFA5 (team loss of 4), clock 01:53.Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
99.2%
(01:14) [SG] Kneel down by MORRIS, Chandler at SFA8 (team loss of 3), clock 01:10.Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
99.3%
(00:33) [SG] Kneel down by MORRIS, Chandler at SFA12 (team loss of 4), clock 00:29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:15
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 28 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+12
TD · Q4 14:16
Damashja Harris run for 80 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 8:57
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com