Try the model
BUCK

Bucknell 21 at Navy 49

NAVY
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadBUCK aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreBUCK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:21 · Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds , TJ Cadden returns for 24 yds to the BUCK 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior+17.8Home team on offense+30.1Score differential+20.1Garbage-time factor+11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Alex Tecza run for 3 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:29: Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:14: Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 42 yds for a TD (Blake Horvath pass to Eli Heidenreich for Two-Point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:12: Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 20 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:06: Paul Neel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Schearer KICK) — BUCK win probability +1.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BUCK made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:51NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:58BUCK 4th & 9 at BUCK 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08BUCK 4th & 2 at NAVY 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:46NAVY 4th & 17 at NAVY 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:26BUCK 4th & 6 at BUCK 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:01BUCK 4th & 15 at BUCK 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:44BUCK 4th & 4 at BUCK 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:22NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 40, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:39BUCK 4th & 18 at BUCK 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:44BUCK 4th & 9 at NAVY 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:14NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.7%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:21NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:43BUCK 4th & 6 at NAVY 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:42BUCK 4th & 4 at NAVY 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BUCK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:37BUCK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:44NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56NAVY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:29NAVY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:14NAVY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:12NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:06BUCK Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:33NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:10NAVY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:30BUCK Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUCKDrive 1TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
97.0%
Paul Neel run for 14 yds to the BUCK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
96.9%
Paul Neel run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 9
50
+3
96.9%
Paul Neel run for 3 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+47
96.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Nate Anderson for 47 yds for a TD (Matt Schearer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3997% → 96%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
96.7%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
96.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-1
96.5%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 42Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+3
96.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Eric Weatherly returns for 3 yds to the BUCK 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:404% → 4%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
96.3%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 1 yd to the BUCK 16Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
96.2%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
96.2%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
96.2%
Matt Schearer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the BUCK 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
96.3%
Daba Fofana run for 49 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 5DOWNS
16 plays · 56 yds · 4:354% → 5%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.3%
Paul Neel run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUCK 24Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
96.2%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 7 yds to the BUCK 31Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.2%
Paul Neel run for 5 yds to the BUCK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
96.0%
(09:17) THOMAS, Tariq rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the BUC40 (RAMOS, Colin;PIRRIS, Luke), clock 09:14. PENALTY BUC Holding enforced 10 yards from the BUC36 to the BUC26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+5
96.0%
Tariq Thomas run for 5 yds to the BUCK 31Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+14
95.9%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Nate Anderson for 14 yds to the BUCK 45Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
95.7%
(07:58) RUCKER IV, Ralph pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CADDEN, TJ thrown to the NAV20, clock 07:56. PENALTY NAV Offsides on PIRRIS, Luke enforced 5 yards from the BUC45 to the BUC50 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
50
+5
95.6%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Paul Neel for 5 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
95.5%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+18
95.5%
Paul Neel run for 18 yds to the NAVY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
95.3%
Paul Neel run for 3 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
95.2%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+5
95.3%
Danny Meuser run for 5 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 2
OPP 19
0
95.2%
Danny Meuser run for no gain to the NAVY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 4:2095% → 94%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
95.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+2
95.2%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
94.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 9 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+8
95.0%
Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.8%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
50
+3
94.8%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the BUCK 47Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-15
94.6%
(02:44) FOFANA, Daba rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the BUC45 (WILLIS, Gavin), clock 02:42. PENALTY NAV Personal Foul on BOUTON, Javan enforced 15 yards from the BUC47 to the NAV38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 18
OWN 38
+1
94.2%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 39Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 17
OWN 39
-2
94.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds , Eric Weatherly returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BUCK 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
93.9%
Paul Neel run for 7 yds to the BUCK 23 Paul Neel fumbled, recovered by NAVY Luke Pirris L. Pirris return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1394% → 95%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
94.4%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the BUCK 15Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
94.4%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the BUCK 14Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+7
94.1%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the BUCK 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
94.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the BUCK 3Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.2%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.8%
Paul Neel run for no gain to the BUCK 24Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
94.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.8%
Tariq Thomas run for 4 yds to the BUCK 28Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+9
94.8%
Matt Schearer punt for 51 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for 9 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4995% → 94%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
94.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 13 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
94.8%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-7
94.7%
Blake Horvath sacked by Brad Jamison for a loss of 7 yards to the NAVY 39Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-8
94.3%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Blake Horvath return for 8 yds to the BUCK 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:136% → 6%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.1%
Tariq Thomas run for no gain to the BUCK 29Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
94.0%
(10:48) RUCKER IV, Ralph pass to the left complete for 14 yards to ANDERSON, Nate caught at the BUC42 and advanced to the BUC43 (JACOB, Kyle), out of bounds, clock 10:44. PENALTY BUC Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the BUC29 to the BUC24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+5
94.0%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Danny Meuser for 5 yds to the BUCK 29Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-5
93.9%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 5 yards to the BUCK 24Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
93.9%
Matt Schearer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2794% → 96%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
94.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
94.1%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+14
93.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 14 yds to the BUCK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
94.2%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the BUCK 36Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+12
94.1%
Blake Horvath run for 12 yds to the BUCK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
94.1%
Blake Horvath run for 13 yds to the BUCK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.0%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the BUCK 9Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
93.9%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
96.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:385% → 5%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
95.4%
Danny Meuser run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUCK 21Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+9
95.4%
Danny Meuser run for 9 yds to the BUCK 30Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-1
95.2%
Danny Meuser run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUCK 29Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
95.3%
Matt Schearer punt for 63 yds, downed at the NAVY 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:1096% → 96%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
95.6%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-12
95.6%
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eli Heidenreich) to the NAVY 5Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+7
95.6%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+7
95.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Jake Norris for 7 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
95.7%
Brandon Chatman run for 16 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.8%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+4
95.7%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-4
95.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 42 yds , Eric Weatherly returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BUCK 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:275% → 5%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
95.1%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to TJ Cadden for 13 yds to the BUCK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.1%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
95.1%
RUCKER IV, Ralph pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to THOMAS, Tariq caught at the BUC30 and advanced to the BUC33 (RAMOS, Colin), clock 00:54. PENALTY BUC Holding enforced 10 yards from the BUC27 to the BUC17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 20
OWN 17
-8
95.1%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the BUCK 9Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 28
OWN 9
-4
95.3%
Bucknell Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the BUCK 5Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 32
OWN 5
+14
95.3%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 14 yds to the BUCK 19Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 18
OWN 19
+23
95.1%
Matt Schearer punt for 46 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for 23 yds to the BUCK 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
98.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 42 yds for a TD (Blake Horvath pass to Eli Heidenreich for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
97.7%
(00:06) [NHSG] Kneel down by RUCKER IV, Ralph at BUC36 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:3998% → 100%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the BUCK 46Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-15
98.2%
(14:26) HORVATH, Blake pass short to the left incomplete intended for CHATMAN, Brandon broken up by DAVIS, Aaron at the BUC41, clock 14:24. PENALTY NAV Personal Foul on SELF, Brent enforced 15 yards from the BUC46 to the NAV39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 22
OWN 39
+10
98.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 10 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+18
98.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Jake Norris for 18 yds to the BUCK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.2%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the BUCK 27Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
98.3%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the BUCK 24Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
98.3%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the BUCK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.3%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.3%
Amin Hassan run for 2 yds to the BUCK 20Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
99.6%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 20 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:140% → 0%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.6%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.6%
Paul Neel run for 1 yd to the NAVY 37Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+9
99.6%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Josh Gary for 9 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.6%
Paul Neel run for 6 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+9
99.6%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Sam Milligan for 9 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
99.6%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Jaxson Campbell and Luke Pirris for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 17Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+3
99.7%
Tariq Thomas run for 3 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+2
99.7%
Tariq Thomas run for 2 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
99.6%
Matt Schearer 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Isaiah Bryant run for 3 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
99.7%
Bucknell Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 21TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:430% → 2%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to TJ Cadden for 4 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+7
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 7 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Josh Gary for 6 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
99.6%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 8 yds to the NAVY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+12
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 12 yds to the NAVY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
Paul Neel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Schearer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:3999% → 99%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
98.9%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+6
99.1%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
99.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.2%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
99.3%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 47Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
99.3%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+24
99.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds , TJ Cadden returns for 24 yds to the BUCK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:261% → 1%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.0%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 8 yds to the BUCK 48Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
98.9%
Tariq Thomas run for 1 yd to the BUCK 49Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
99.0%
(13:14) RUCKER IV, Ralph pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GARY, Josh thrown to the NAV25, clock 13:13. PENALTY NAV Offsides on ROBINSON, Landon enforced 5 yards from the BUC49 to the NAV46 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
99.0%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Luke Pirris for a loss of 5 yards to the BUCK 49Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+9
99.1%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 9 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
99.0%
RUCKER IV, Ralph pass deep to the right incomplete intended for NEEL, Paul thrown to the NAV25; QB hurried by BLEAZARD, Marcus, clock 11:51. PENALTY NAV Offsides enforced 5 yards from the NAV42 to the NAV37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-5
99.0%
Bucknell Penalty, False Start (Derrick Anderson Jr.) to the NAVY 42Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
99.1%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0599% → 100%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+39
99.4%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 39 yds to the BUCK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.4%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the BUCK 14Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
99.4%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the BUCK 11Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+7
99.4%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the BUCK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.5%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the BUCK 3Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.5%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the BUCK 1Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.9%
Michael Cadden run for 3 yds to the BUCK 18Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-5
99.9%
(07:56) CADDEN, Michael rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the BUC26 (SPELIOS, Dylan;WILLIAMS JR., Mbiti), clock 07:52. PENALTY Before the snap, BUC Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BUC18 to the BUC13. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Michael Cadden run for 2 yds to the BUCK 15Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+16
99.9%
Michael Hardyway pass complete to TJ Cadden for 16 yds TJ Cadden fumbled, recovered by NAVY Elijah Oatsvall E. Oatsvall return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26TD
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
Shane Reynolds run for 3 yds to the BUCK 28Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Mikey Pearson II run for 9 yds to the BUCK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.9%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUCK 24Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+8
99.9%
Shane Reynolds run for 8 yds to the BUCK 16Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
99.9%
Mikey Pearson II run for 5 yds to the BUCK 11Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Shane Reynolds run for 3 yds to the BUCK 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
100.0%
Gage Leonard run for 3 yds to the BUCK 5Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Shane Reynolds run for 5 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 27TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Michael Cadden run for 3 yds to the BUCK 28Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
100.0%
Michael Hardyway pass complete to TJ Cadden for 27 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Michael Hardyway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
100.0%
Michael Cadden run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+4
100.0%
Michael Hardyway pass complete to Kyle Fontes for 4 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+37
100.0%
Michael Hardyway pass complete to TJ Cadden for 37 yds to the NAVY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Michael Cadden run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Schearer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
100.0%
(00:22) Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at NAV43 (team loss of 1), clock 00:20.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 42 yds for a TD (Blake Horvath pass to Eli Heidenreich for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.4
TD · Q2 5:29
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q3 3:06
Paul Neel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Schearer KICK)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com