2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUNA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUNA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:36 · Ari Patu pass complete to KJ Fields for 4 yds to the MEM 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:05: Mario Anderson 4 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick) — MEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:56: Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:47: Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 21 yds to the UNA 33 for a 1ST down — MEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:11: Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 32 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:20: Mario Anderson 5 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick) — MEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 6:37UNA 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 5:22MEM 4th & 14 at MEM 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q2 3:10UNA 4th & 3 at UNA 42, down 28Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:34MEM 4th & 7 at UNA 20, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%75% to makePunt99.3%−0.3average punt
- Q3 12:20UNA 4th & 13 at UNA 22, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 8:42MEM 4th & 9 at UNA 32, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%51% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:00UNA 4th & 4 at MEM 38, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%48% to convertField goal0.2%−0.138% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:25MEM 4th & 3 at UNA 3, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−0.193% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 15:00UNA 4th & 9 at UNA 39, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:00UNA 4th & 14 at UNA 42, down 40Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:40UNA 4th & 6 at MEM 33, down 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%40% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.149% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:36UNA 4th & 26 at MEM 35, down 40Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.17% to convertField goal0.0%45% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:24MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 31, up 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:05MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:11MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:20MEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:29MEM Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEMDrive 1TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:4799% → 98%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 8 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+35
98.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 35 yds to the UNA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
98.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 5 yds to the UNA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 2PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 3:272% → 2%
MEMDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0898% → 98%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
97.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 7 yds to the MEM 21Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-11
97.8%
Seth Henigan sacked by Fred Vili for a loss of 11 yards to the MEM 10Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 14
OWN 10
+46
97.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for 46 yds , Logan Collier returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UNA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 4INT3 plays · 2 yds · 1:162% → 2%
MEMDrive 5TD10 plays · 52 yds · 3:5598% → 98%
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+27
97.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 27 yds to the UNA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
97.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 4 yds to the UNA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 6INT9 plays · 23 yds · 5:022% → 3%
Q2 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Ari Patu run for no gain to the UNA 31 Ari Patu fumbled, recovered by UNA Ari Patu A. Patu return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
97.0%
(10:46) QB Keeper PATU, Ari rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the MEM50 (COFFEY, An'Darius), clock 10:41. PENALTY MEM Offsides on JONES, Adarious enforced 5 yards from the UNA45 to the UNA50 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-7
96.9%
Ari Patu pass intercepted Davion Ross return for 7 yds to the MEM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD3 plays · 54 yds · 1:3697% → 99%
UNADrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 1 yds · 1:262% → 2%
MEMDrive 9TD3 plays · 26 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
98.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the UNA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 10PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 2:091% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11FG13 plays · 35 yds · 2:3099% → 100%
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
99.4%
(02:35) HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left complete for 6 yards to DESROSIERS JR., Greg caught at the MEM47 and advanced to the UNA45 (REDDICK, Gregory), clock 02:26. PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MEM49 to the MEM44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+16
99.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 16 yds to the UNA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 12 yds to the UNA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+1
99.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 1 yd to the UNA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 13PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q3 12:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+15
99.8%
Adam Watford punt for 52 yds , Koby Drake returns for 15 yds to the MEM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14MISSED FG10 plays · 27 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
UNADrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 30 yds · 3:380% → 0%
Q3 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+15
99.8%
Ari Patu pass complete to Jackson Bratton for 15 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FG7 plays · 59 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
99.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 21 yds to the UNA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+30
99.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 30 yds to the UNA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 1 yd to the UNA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 17PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:240% → 0%
MEMDrive 18TD6 plays · 63 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+45
99.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 45 yds to the UNA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+9
99.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 9 yds to the UNA 15Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for DRAKE, Koby thrown to the UNA0, clock 12:29. PENALTY UNA Offsides on REDDICK, Gregory enforced 5 yards from the UNA10 to the UNA5 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Costa PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 19DOWNS19 plays · 44 yds · 9:500% → 0%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Ari Patu pass complete to Takairee Kenebrew for 5 yds to the UNA 30Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.9%
Ari Patu pass complete to Dakota Warfield for 16 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
99.9%
Ari Patu pass complete to Takairee Kenebrew for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 46Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-15
99.9%
North Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ryan Walker) to the UNA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-7
99.9%
Ari Patu sacked by Bryce Edmondson for a loss of 7 yards to the UNA 39Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 14
OWN 42
-12
99.9%
Adam Watford run for a loss of 12 yards to the MEM 37 Chris Adams fumbled, recovered by UNA return for 33 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+14
99.9%
Ari Patu pass complete to Tanaka Scott for 14 yds to the MEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-6
99.9%
TJ Smith sacked by Elijah Herring for a loss of 6 yards to the MEM 25Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 16
OPP 25
-10
99.9%
Ari Patu sacked by William Whitlow Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the MEM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 21END OF GAME1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:11
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 32 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q2 5:20
Mario Anderson 5 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q2 14:56
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+0.5