What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:09 · Dante Perri pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
TD · Q1 0:43: Luke Yoder run for 18 yds for a TD (Nick Garrido KICK) — LEH win probability +4.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LEH has the ball).
TD · Q2 10:21: Bryson Daily run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
TD · Q2 2:59: Kanye Udoh run for 13 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:52: Connor Poole kickoff for 56 yds , Lloyd Benson III return for 14 yds to the ARMY 23 — LEH win probability +3.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: LEH has the ball).
TD · Q3 8:32: Noah Short run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LEH made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
Q1 10:52LEH4th & 6 at ARMY 41, tied
Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
Go for it
49.5%
40% to convert
Field goal
49.4%−0.1
32% to make
PuntTheir call
49.4%−0.1
average punt
Q1 8:43ARMY4th & 2 at ARMY 28, tied
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
50.8%
57% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
Punt
50.6%−0.1
average punt
Q2 9:14LEH4th & 5 at LEH 30, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
Go for it
38.1%−0.3
41% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
38.4%
average punt
Q2 0:23LEH4th & 6 at ARMY 37, down 14
Close callWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
24.6%−0.4
40% to convert
Field goal
25.0%
40% to make
Punt
23.8%−1.2
average punt
Q3 8:32ARMY4th & 3 at LEH 3, up 14
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.4% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
84.2%
44% to convert
Field goal
82.6%−1.6
93% to make
Punt
74.0%−10.2
average punt
Q3 5:04LEH4th & 2 at ARMY 38, down 21
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
5.1%
57% to convert
Field goal
3.9%−1.2
38% to make
Punt
3.9%−1.2
average punt
Q4 3:09LEH4th & 5 at ARMY 44, down 28
Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
0.1%−<0.1
41% to convert
Field goal
0.1%
27% to make
Punt
0.1%−<0.1
average punt
Q4 3:09LEH4th & 5 at ARMY 44, down 28
Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
0.1%−<0.1
41% to convert
Field goal
0.1%
27% to make
Punt
0.1%−<0.1
average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LEH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
Q1 5:57ARMYTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
54.5%
97% to make
Go for two
54.4%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 0:43LEHTouchdown, down 1 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
47.0%
97% to make
Go for two
47.0%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 10:21ARMYTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
59.0%
97% to make
Go for two
58.9%−0.1
45% to convert
Q2 2:59ARMYTouchdown, up 13 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
74.7%
97% to make
Go for two
74.6%−0.1
45% to convert
Q3 8:32ARMYTouchdown, up 20 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
94.9%
97% to make
Go for two
94.8%−0.1
45% to convert
Q4 8:28ARMYTouchdown, up 27 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
100.0%
97% to make
Go for two
100.0%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q4 0:19ARMYTouchdown, up 34 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
100.0%
97% to make
Go for two
100.0%−<0.1
45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Noah Short run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LEHDrive 10INT
17 plays · 69 yds · 8:075% → 2%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.3%
Geoffrey Jamiel run for 5 yds to the LEH 30Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
95.2%
Jaden Green run for 13 yds to the LEH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
95.3%
Jaden Green run for 11 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
95.4%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Hayden pass complete short right to Jamiel,Geoffrey caught at ARMY46, for 20 yards to the ARMY26 (Larkin,Casey) PENALTY LEH Chop Block (Green,Jaden) 15 yards from ARMY46 to LEH39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+22
95.8%
Hayden Johnson pass complete to Jamaire HardenSimilar