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NWST

Northwestern State 28 at Tulsa 62

TLSA
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:06 · Seth Morgan 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cam Hardy for a TD , Antonio Hall return for 74 yds for a TD (Reed Honshtein KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+43.6Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.3Blowout margin−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 14:13: Kennieth Lacy run for 75 yds for a TD — NWST win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:34: Jeremiah Ballard 29 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick) — TLSA win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:45: Anthony Watkins run for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan PAT MISSED) — TLSA win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:16: Connor Vaughn 20 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick) — TLSA win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:37: Connor Vaughn 14 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick) — TLSA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NWST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:15TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51NWST 4th & 10 at NWST 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19NWST 4th & 15 at NWST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06TLSA 4th & 14 at NWST 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:29NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:39NWST 4th & 10 at NWST 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:42NWST 4th & 19 at NWST 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:48TLSA 4th & 3 at NWST 25, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:34NWST 4th & 4 at TLSA 47, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:18TLSA 4th & 3 at NWST 44, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:18TLSA 4th & 3 at NWST 44, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52NWST 4th & 18 at TLSA 48, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:01NWST 4th & 1 at NWST 34, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NWST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:13NWST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:40TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:34TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:45TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:16TLSA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:37TLSA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:22TLSA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:39NWST Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:28TLSA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:372% → 2%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Kennieth Lacy run for no gain to the NWST 25Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
98.3%
Kennieth Lacy run for 75 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5298% → 98%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
98.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.1%
Angus Davies punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NWST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
98.1%
JT Fayard run for 5 yds to the NWST 28Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+18
98.0%
JT Fayard pass complete to Chance Newman for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.0%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
98.0%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
98.0%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.0%
Reed Honshtein punt for 38 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 4 yds to the TLSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0198% → 98%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.9%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
97.9%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
97.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
97.8%
Bill Jackson run for 14 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
97.8%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+15
97.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
97.8%
Kamdyn Benjamin 36 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:022% → 2%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.7%
JT Fayard pass complete to Amaaz Eugene for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.6%
Chance Newman run for no gain to the NWST 37Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.5%
Ray Mckneely-Harris run for 5 yds to the NWST 32Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
97.5%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 15
OWN 32
+66
97.7%
Reed Honshtein punt for 34 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 66 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 3:332% → 3%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.7%
Ray Mckneely-Harris run for 12 yds to the NWST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.6%
Kennieth Lacy run for 1 yd to the NWST 36Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
97.5%
Kennieth Lacy run for 4 yds to the NWST 32 Kennieth Lacy fumbled, recovered by NWST Kennieth LacySimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-15
97.5%
JT Fayard pass complete to Ray Mckneely-Harris Northwestern State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NWST 22Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 25
OWN 22
+10
97.4%
JT Fayard run for 10 yds to the NWST 12Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 35
OWN 12
0
97.4%
Reed Honshtein punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the NWST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7MISSED FG TD
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:5097% → 96%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
97.3%
Jacob Emmers run for 15 yds to the NWST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
97.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the NWST 24Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
97.2%
Kirk Francis run for 2 yds to the NWST 22Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+15
97.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.1%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
97.1%
PENALTY TLS False Start 5 yards from NSU07 to NSU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
97.1%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the NWST 14Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
97.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+74
96.2%
Seth Morgan 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cam Hardy for a TD , Antonio Hall return for 74 yds for a TD (Reed Honshtein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:2696% → 97%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
96.0%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
96.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
96.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
96.1%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 44Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+15
95.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
95.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the NWST 37Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
95.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
96.6%
Jeremiah Ballard 29 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 3:494% → 4%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
96.3%
Zay Davis run for 9 yds to the NWST 25Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Zay Davis run for no gain to the NWST 25Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
96.1%
JT Fayard run for 1 yd to the NWST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
96.0%
PENALTY NSU False Start (Cedillo,Guadalupe) 5 yards from NSU26 to NSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+15
95.9%
Tulsa Penalty, Targeting (Chris Thompson Jr.) to the NWST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
95.9%
Chance Newman run for 3 yds to the NWST 22Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
95.8%
Zay Davis run for 2 yds to the NWST 20Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
95.8%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+13
95.9%
Reed Honshtein punt for 34 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 13 yds to the NWST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:3696% → 97%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
96.0%
Cardell Williams run for 8 yds to the NWST 33Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+33
97.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
96.6%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
96.6%
Kennieth Lacy run for no gain to the NWST 15Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
96.6%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+2
96.6%
Reed Honshtein punt for 39 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 2 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:1797% → 99%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
96.9%
Bill Jackson run for 8 yds to the NWST 44Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+4
96.8%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the NWST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
96.8%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass complete short right to McGary,Luke caught at NSU25, for 15 yards to the NSU25, End Of Play PENALTY TLS Holding (Steptoe,Zion) 10 yards from NSU40 to NSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 20
50
+3
96.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGarySimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+27
96.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.5%
Connor Vaughn 20 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
98.2%
JT Fayard pass complete to Kareame Cotton Jr.Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
98.4%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-7
98.4%
JT Fayard sacked by Justin Lohrenz for a loss of 7 yards to the NWST 26Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
98.4%
Reed Honshtein punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:4999% → 99%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+29
98.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
98.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the NWST 30Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
98.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+5
98.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+11
98.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.4%
Connor Vaughn 14 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
99.5%
Kennieth Lacy run for 4 yds to the NWST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
99.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Ethan HallSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+18
99.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.7%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the NWST 37Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+18
99.7%
Bill Jackson run for 18 yds to the NWST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.8%
Braylin Presley run for 19 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.7%
JT Fayard run for 2 yds to the NWST 33Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+14
99.8%
Chance Newman run for 14 yds to the NWST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.7%
Kennieth Lacy run for 6 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Zay Davis run for no gain to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
99.8%
JT Fayard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Reed Honshtein punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:08100% → 100%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+16
99.8%
Lloyd Avant run for 16 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.8%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Lloyd Avant run for 7 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.8%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Li'o Marks,Tautai) 5 yards from TLS33 to TLS28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+15
99.8%
Kirk Francis run for 15 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
99.8%
(05:30) Shotgun Ellison Jr.,Viron rush left for 10 yards gain to the NSU41 (Williams,Christian) PENALTY TLS Holding (Vaughn,Connor) 10 yards from TLS49 to TLS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+10
99.8%
Lloyd Avant run for 10 yds to the NWST 46Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+2
99.8%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the NWST 44Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:190% → 0%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
99.9%
Zay Davis run for 8 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-15
99.8%
(02:38) Shotgun Fayard,JT pass incomplete deep middle to Kitt-Denton,Myles thrown to TLS17 PENALTY NSU Chop Block (Lacy,Kennieth) 15 yards from TLS48 to NSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Zay Davis run for 1 yd to the NWST 38Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+22
99.9%
JT Fayard pass complete to Amaaz Eugene for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
JT Fayard run for no gain to the TLSA 40Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Zay Davis run for 6 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 18
OPP 48
+36
99.9%
Reed Honshtein punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 20TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:070% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Myles Kitt-Denton 12 Yd pass from Quaterius Hawkins (Reed Honshtein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+27
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins pass complete to Kareame Cotton Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Zay Davis run for 5 yds to the NWST 46Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+6
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins pass complete to Kareame Cotton Jr.Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+12
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins pass complete to Ty Moore for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Zay Davis run for 6 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+26
99.9%
Zay Davis run for 26 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
C. Newman run for 4 yds for a TD (R. Honshtein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:46100% → 100%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 11 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 5 yds to the NWST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the NWST 43Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
99.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 1 yd to the NWST 42Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+10
99.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 10 yds to the NWST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 3 yds to the NWST 29Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 1 yd to the NWST 28Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 6 yds to the NWST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
C. Williams run for 22 yds for a TD (S. Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Ray Mckneely-Harris run for 1 yd to the NWST 26Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Ray Mckneely-Harris run for no gain to the NWST 26Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
100.0%
Quaterius Hawkins run for 8 yds to the NWST 34Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Reed Honshtein punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Grayson Tempest at the TLSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+41
100.0%
Cam Crooks run for 41 yds to the NWST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
100.0%
Cam Crooks run for 6 yds to the NWST 38Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
100.0%
Cardell Williams run for 1 yd to the NWST 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
100.0%
Cardell Williams run for 4 yds to the NWST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:16
Connor Vaughn 20 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)
+1.9
TD · Q2 7:45
Anthony Watkins run for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan PAT MISSED)
+0.9
TD · Q2 12:34
Jeremiah Ballard 29 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com