2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreSELA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:45 · Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 4 yds to the TULN 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:30: Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — TULN win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:45: Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — TULN win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: Eli Sawyer pass intercepted Rayshawn Pleasant return for 100 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — TULN win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:20: Ty Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — TULN win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SELA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q2 15:00SELA 4th & 28 at TULN 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.37% to convertField goalTheir call6.7%60% to makePunt6.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 7:25SELA 4th & 6 at SELA 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q2 5:19TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 29, up 14Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it94.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:45SELA 4th & 6 at TULN 47, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:10SELA 4th & 5 at TULN 44, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%41% to convertField goal0.1%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:42SELA 4th & 8 at SELA 12, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:50SELA 4th & 11 at SELA 44, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:06TULN 4th & 9 at SELA 20, up 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%75% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 3:30TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:45TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:20TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:40TULN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53TULN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:02TULN Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSELADrive 1FUMBLE11 plays · 50 yds · 5:243% → 4%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 3 yds to the SELA 28Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.6%
(13:46) HUNTER, Jack punt 35 yards to the TLN34, FLEMING, Dontae returned 10 yards to the TLN44, out of bounds, clock 13:39. PENALTY TLN Running Into the kicker on LUNZ, Michael enforced 5 yards from the SLU31 to the SLU36 and results in a 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
96.6%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 3 yds to the SELA 39Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+8
96.4%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Cade Collier for 8 yds to the SELA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+16
96.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 16 yds to the TULN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
95.9%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 6 yds to the TULN 26Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
95.7%
Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd to the TULN 25 Harlan Dixon fumbled, recovered by TULN Sam Howard S. Howard return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5896% → 96%
Q1 8:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+24
95.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 24 yds to the SELA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
95.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Reggie Brown for 9 yds to the SELA 40Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
95.2%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 7 yds to the SELA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
95.2%
(05:23) CLAYTON-JOHNSON, Shaadie rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the SLU21 (RENO, KK;DANIELS, Donte'), clock 05:18. PENALTY SLU Offsides on LEWIS, Kadan enforced 5 yards from the SLU26 to the SLU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
95.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 3MISSED FG9 plays · 7 yds · 3:085% → 5%
Q1 2:56
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+11
94.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 11 yds to the TULN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
94.6%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 14 yds to the TULN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
94.5%
Eli Sawyer sacked by Parker Petersen for a loss of 9 yards to the TULN 15Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-15
94.4%
(00:09) SAWYER, Eli pass to the left incomplete intended for DROBOCKY, Ivan thrown to the TLN0, clock 00:04. PENALTY SLU Personal Foul on MARTIN JR., Anthonio enforced 15 yards from the TLN15 to the TLN30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 30
+2
94.4%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Rodeo Graham Jr. for 2 yds to the TULN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD11 plays · 72 yds · 5:0995% → 96%
Q2 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+12
94.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 12 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
94.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 23 yds to the SELA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+14
94.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Alex Bauman for 14 yds to the SELA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 5PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 2:105% → 5%
TULNDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5996% → 96%
Q2 6:26
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
96.1%
(06:26) MENSAH, Darian pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to BROWN, Yulkeith caught at the TLN31 and advanced to the TLN35 (PIERCE, Coryell), clock 06:19. PENALTY Before the snap, TLN Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TLN25 to the TLN20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Will Karoll punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Darius Lewis at the SELA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 7INT TD10 plays · 46 yds · 4:316% → 3%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
94.5%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for a loss of 1 yard to the SELA 35Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
93.7%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for 4 yds to the TULN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+16
94.1%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 16 yds to the TULN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-100
97.1%
Eli Sawyer pass intercepted Rayshawn Pleasant return for 100 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 8END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3998% → 100%
SELADrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 35 yds · 4:280% → 0%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.6%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 11 yds to the SELA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
99.6%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Cade Collier for 8 yds to the SELA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.7%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 5 yds to the TULN 46Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-1
99.7%
Eli Sawyer sacked by Kameron Hamilton for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11TD7 plays · 57 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.8%
(06:39) MENSAH, Darian pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for FLEMING, Dontae thrown to the SLU11, clock 06:31. PENALTY SLU Pass Interference on CALLIGAN, Keydrain enforced 15 yards to the SLU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
99.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 14 yds to the SELA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 12PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 2:220% → 0%
TULNDrive 13TD3 plays · 85 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
SELADrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 13:51
4TH & 3
OWN 17
-5
99.9%
(13:51) HUNTER, Jack punt 43 yards to the TLN40 return muffed by FLEMING, Dontae at the TLN40, recovered by SLU COLLIER, Cade at the TLN40, returned 0 yards to the TLN40, End of Play, clock 13:44. PENALTY Before the snap, SLU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SLU17 to the SLU12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Jack Hunter punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the SELA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15TD6 plays · 47 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Kai Horton pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 9 yds to the SELA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 16PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 7:50
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Jack Hunter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17FG12 plays · 67 yds · 5:35100% → 100%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Tulane Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+11
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Trey Cornist for 11 yds to the TULN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+19
100.0%
Ty Thompson run for 4 yds to the SELA 36 for a 1ST down SE Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (Richard McKneely) to the SELA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
100.0%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 6 yds to the SELA 15Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-5
100.0%
(02:36) THOMPSON, Ty pass short to the right complete for 12 yards to GOINES, Joshua caught at the SLU14 and advanced to the SLU3 (DUMAS, Justin;ALLEN, Talique), out of bounds, clock 02:31. PENALTY Before the snap, TLN Illegal Formation on BAKER, Reese enforced 5 yards from the SLU15 to the SLU20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 18END OF GAME5 plays · 8 yds · 1:290% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:42
Eli Sawyer pass intercepted Rayshawn Pleasant return for 100 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 9:45
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q3 11:20
Ty Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+1.4