2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:35 · R.Millmore punts 36 yards to EMC 13, Center-R.Todd. Fair catch by O.Singleton.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:00: H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by Z.Abdus-Salaam for 31 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — WMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:25: J.Buckley rushed for 15 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — WMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:05: D.Mimms rushed for 10 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — EMU win probability +10.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:10: Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 22 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — WMU win probability +9.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:19: D.Mimms rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — EMU win probability +8.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 9:35WMU 4th & 17 at EMU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it66.8%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.0%average punt
- Q1 8:06EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it32.7%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%average punt
- Q1 5:33WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it66.0%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q1 4:07EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 28, tiedClose callPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it33.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:11WMU 4th & 4 at EMU 44, tiedClose callPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it66.6%48% to convertField goal66.0%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call66.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:22WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 65.2% before the snapGo for it65.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 3:49EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it35.1%−1.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.8%average punt
- Q2 0:55WMU 4th & 1 at EMU 28, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.5%71% to convertField goal75.6%−0.860% to makePunt71.5%−5.0average punt
- Q3 6:51WMU 4th & 1 at EMU 26, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.2%71% to convertField goal77.8%−2.364% to makePunt71.7%−8.5average punt
- Q4 11:33WMU 4th & 5 at EMU 8, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snapGo for it86.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call86.1%90% to makePunt78.0%−8.1average punt
- Q4 7:57EMU 4th & 3 at WMU 14, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snapGo for it10.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call9.9%−0.884% to makePunt6.2%−4.4average punt
- Q4 6:22WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 32, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snapGo for it89.3%−1.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.7%average punt
- Q4 5:31EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 19, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q4 2:24WMU 4th & 1 at EMU 28, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.9%71% to convertField goal93.6%−1.360% to makePunt90.7%−4.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 2:00WMU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.1%97% to makeGo for two77.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:25WMU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:05EMU Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick22.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call22.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:10WMU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:19EMU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.2%97% to makeGo for two18.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWMUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 5:1973% → 72%
Q1 14:22
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+24
72.9%
J.Buckley rushed for 24 yards. Tackled by Q.Scandrett at WMC 46.Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
72.8%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Djonkam at EMC 42.Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+3
72.5%
B.Lowry rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Djonkam; J.Jefferson at EMC 41.Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-8
72.4%
H.Wolff steps back to pass. Sacked at EMC 49 for -8 yards (J.Djonkam). H.Wolff FUMBLES, forced by J.Djonkam. Fumble RECOVERED by WMC-J.Buckley at EMC 49.Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 17
OPP 49
+36
71.8%
R.Millmore punts 36 yards to EMC 13, Center-R.Todd. Fair catch by O.Singleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1928% → 28%
Q1 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
71.7%
D.Mimms rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Wahlberg; D.Roberson at EMC 17.Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
71.8%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for O.Singleton.Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+53
72.0%
M.Tomasek punts 53 yards to WMC 30, Center-M.Dietzel. Downed by N.Devereaux.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:2572% → 71%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
71.6%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 11 yards. Tackled by J.Adam at WMC 41.Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
71.9%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by J.Buckley for 3 yards. Tackled by L.Murphy at WMC 46.Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-4
71.6%
H.Wolff steps back to pass. Sacked at WMC 42 for -4 yards (P.Price; D.Shelton).Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+36
70.7%
R.Millmore punts 36 yards to EMC 22, Center-R.Todd. O.Singleton returned punt from the EMC 22. Pushed out of bounds by W.Gerig at EMC 22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2029% → 29%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
70.9%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Allen.Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+3
71.0%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by D.Mimms for 3 yards. Tackled by D.Willis at EMC 28.Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+42
71.2%
M.Tomasek punts 42 yards to WMC 30, Center-M.Dietzel. J.Parker returned punt from the WMC 30. Tackled by T.Deener; N.Devereaux at WMC 23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 33 yds · 2:4571% → 71%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
70.7%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by B.Bosma for 27 yards. Tackled by Q.Scandrett; B.Manning at WMC 50.Similar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
71.9%
J.Nixon rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by L.Murphy; D.Shelton at WMC 50.Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+5
71.9%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by J.Buckley for 5 yards. Tackled by K.Nowling at EMC 45.Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
71.4%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by J.Zelinsky at EMC 44.Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+27
70.7%
R.Millmore punts 27 yards to EMC 17, Center-R.Todd. Fair catch by O.Singleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6FUMBLE18 plays · 58 yds · 5:3231% → 34%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
69.4%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by M.Allen for 9 yards. Tackled by N.Washington at EMC 26.Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
69.1%
PENALTY on WMC-C.Walker, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+2
68.4%
D.Mimms rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Wahlberg; I.Green at EMC 35.Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
68.2%
D.Mimms rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by R.McGraw; C.Walker at EMC 36.Similar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
66.7%
J.Mattord rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Wahlberg; T.Lee at WMC 42.Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+13
66.5%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by D.Mimms for 13 yards. Tackled by B.Bonnema at WMC 29.Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.7%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for O.Singleton.Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
65.8%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by T.Lockett for yards. Tackled by B.Kone at WMC 15. PENALTY on EMC-EMC, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+9
66.5%
J.Mattord rushed for 9 yards. J.Mattord FUMBLES, forced by A.Wofford. Fumble RECOVERED by WMC-D.Roberson at WMC 25. Tackled by EMC at WMC 25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0169% → 69%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.1%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by J.Buckley for 5 yards. Tackled by Q.Scandrett at WMC 30.Similar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
70.0%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by Z.Abdus-Salaam for 8 yards. Tackled by K.Nowling at WMC 48.Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+43
68.7%
R.Millmore punts 43 yards to EMC 9, Center-R.Todd. O.Singleton returned punt from the EMC 9. Tackled by WMC at EMC 9.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8SF8 plays · 13 yds · 3:2634% → 29%
Q2 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+5
66.7%
PENALTY on WMC-C.Walker, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
65.2%
D.Brown rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by M.Tyler; J.Childers at EMC 23.Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-8
65.2%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Sacked at EMC 15 for -8 yards (D.Willis).Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
71.2%
M.Tomasek punts yards to WMC 22, Center-M.Dietzel. A.Thompson blocked the kick. SAFETY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD5 plays · 48 yds · 1:3573% → 80%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
72.5%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by Z.Abdus-Salaam for 1 yards. Tackled by L.Murphy at EMC 47.Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-1
72.4%
J.Buckley rushed for -1 yards. Tackled by J.Djonkam; D.Shelton at EMC 48.Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+17
70.5%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by M.Dieudonne for 17 yards. Tackled by D.White at EMC 31.Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
80.1%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by Z.Abdus-Salaam for 31 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD7 plays · 37 yds · 1:2580% → 88%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.8%
H.Wolff steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for A.Sambucci.Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
79.7%
J.Buckley rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Djonkam; L.Murphy at EMC 33.Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
79.3%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by C.Toudle for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Djonkam; Q.Scandrett at EMC 28.Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+7
78.6%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by C.Toudle for 7 yards. Tackled by L.Murphy at EMC 21.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
80.4%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by B.Bosma for 6 yards. Pushed out of bounds by B.Manning at EMC 15.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:4715% → 25%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
84.8%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by T.Lockett for 9 yards. Tackled by D.Roberson at EMC 39.Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
84.1%
O.Singleton rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by D.Roberson; A.Wofford at WMC 43.Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
84.6%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for O.Singleton.Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+31
85.3%
D.Mimms rushed for 31 yards. Tackled by B.Kone; A.Wofford at WMC 10.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD10 plays · 72 yds · 5:4580% → 91%
EMUDrive 15TD11 plays · 68 yds · 3:3712% → 21%
Q3 5:09
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+7
88.9%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by N.Devereaux for 7 yards. Tackled by D.Bussell at EMC 44.Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
88.5%
J.Mattord rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by D.Roberson; D.Willis at WMC 43.Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
88.7%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.Lockett.Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
89.1%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Allen.Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.7%
D.Mimms rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by D.Willis; J.Wahlberg at WMC 1.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16FG13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3785% → 89%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
85.4%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 22 yards. Pushed out of bounds by L.Murphy at WMC 39.Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+9
86.9%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 9 yards. Tackled by Q.Scandrett; D.Carter at EMC 45.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
87.9%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by L.Murphy at EMC 40.Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
88.1%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by L.Murphy at EMC 34.Similar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
88.8%
H.Wolff pass complete. Catch made by C.Toudle for 11 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Djonkam at EMC 23.Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
89.3%
H.Wolff steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for B.Bosma.Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
88.5%
H.Wolff steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for A.Sambucci.Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
88.9%
L.Zurak 25 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-R.Todd, Holder-R.Millmore.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17FG10 plays · 68 yds · 3:3011% → 15%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
88.8%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by M.Allen for 17 yards. Tackled by N.Washington at EMC 35.Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
87.8%
C.Snyder pass complete. Catch made by M.Allen for 33 yards. Tackled by A.Wofford at WMC 32.Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
86.6%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.Lockett.Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
87.7%
D.Mimms rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by I.Green; D.Willis at WMC 21.Similar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
87.6%
J.Mattord rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by A.Wofford; D.Willis at WMC 16.Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
85.5%
J.Gomez 32 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-M.Dietzel, Holder-M.Tomasek.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3090% → 90%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.1%
J.Buckley rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Zelinsky; J.Djonkam at WMC 31.Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
91.0%
H.Wolff steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Dieudonne. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion and the play was upheld.Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+49
90.3%
R.Millmore punts 49 yards to EMC 19, Center-R.Todd. Fair catch by O.Singleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4411% → 9%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.0%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Mimms.Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
90.4%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.Lockett.Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+29
90.8%
M.Tomasek punts 29 yards to EMC 48, Center-M.Dietzel. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5994% → 95%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
94.1%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 7 yards. Tackled by Q.Scandrett; L.Murphy at EMC 41.Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
94.3%
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Djonkam; L.Murphy at EMC 37.Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-3
94.9%
J.Buckley rushed for -3 yards. Tackled by P.Price; J.Djonkam at EMC 31.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-11
90.9%
C.Snyder pass INTERCEPTED at EMC 45. Intercepted by B.Kone at EMC 45. Tackled by M.Reese at EMC 34. PENALTY on WMC-D.Bussell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:05
D.Mimms rushed for 10 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-10.5
TD · Q3 6:10
Z.Abdus-Salaam rushed for 22 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+9.3
TD · Q3 2:19
D.Mimms rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-8.5