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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreTOL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:09 · Avery Book punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · OT 0:00: Charles Kellom 25 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Garrison Smith Kick) — AKR win probability +49.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 10:41: Charles Kellom run for 8 yds to the AKR 16 — TOL win probability +48.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:57: Tahj Bullock 1 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick) — AKR win probability +12.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:47: Anthony Torres 7 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick) — TOL win probability +12.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:26: Jerjuan Newton 19 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick) — TOL win probability +37.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
- Q1 11:02TOL 4th & 6 at AKR 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snapGo for it70.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call70.1%60% to makePunt69.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:05TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 34, down 7Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it67.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:23AKR 4th & 21 at AKR 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.98% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.0%average punt
- Q1 3:49TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 45, down 7Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:09AKR 4th & 5 at TOL 47, up 7Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it38.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:45TOL 4th & 4 at AKR 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.5%48% to convertField goal58.1%−0.458% to makePunt55.0%−3.5average punt
- Q2 7:58AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 38, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 47.8% before the snapGo for it48.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%−1.3average punt
- Q2 5:24TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 45, down 7Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it50.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:51AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it49.9%−1.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.9%average punt
- Q2 0:48TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it43.8%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.1%average punt
- Q3 10:46AKR 4th & 10 at midfield, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snapGo for it58.1%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.9%average punt
- Q3 5:51TOL 4th & 3 at AKR 8, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snapGo for it39.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call38.5%−1.590% to makePunt26.5%−13.4average punt
- Q4 12:41TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.5%−1.1average punt
- Q4 10:47TOL 4th & 7 at AKR 7, down 14Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.2%−0.828% to convertField goal11.0%91% to makePunt3.5%−7.5average punt
- Q4 6:10AKR 4th & 10 at TOL 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it86.4%−0.530% to convertField goal85.2%−1.725% to makePuntTheir call86.9%average punt
- Q4 2:23AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snapGo for it42.1%−6.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at AKR 11, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snapGo for it56.0%71% to convertField goalTheir call51.5%−4.487% to makePunt37.2%−18.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q4 13:57AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:47TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.3%97% to makeGo for two18.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:26TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.7%97% to makeGo for two41.8%−0.945% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTOLDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 47 yds · 3:5676% → 75%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
24.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the AKR 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4273% → 72%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the TOL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:3629% → 30%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
28.5%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Israel Polk for 17 yds to the AKR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
29.3%
Charles Kellom run for a loss of 5 yards to the AKR 37 Charles Kellom fumbled, recovered by AKR Tahj BullockSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-8
30.1%
Ben Finley sacked by Cavon Butler for a loss of 8 yards to the AKR 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2869% → 67%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
30.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
31.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 7 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
32.1%
pass incomplete to Sevaughn Clark Toledo Penalty, Offensive holding (Ethan Spoth) to the TOL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 39 yds · 1:2833% → 34%
TOLDrive 6FUMBLE16 plays · 94 yds · 6:1666% → 63%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
34.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Elijah Reed) to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
36.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
35.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 6 yds to the AKR 49Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+14
35.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the AKR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+12
37.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds to the AKR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
35.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the AKR 12Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
37.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Anthony Torres for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Defensive holding (CJ Nunnally IV) to the AKR 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
36.9%
Sevaughn Clark run for a loss of 4 yards to the AKR 8 Sevaughn Clark fumbled, recovered by AKR Antavious FishSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8DOWNS7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0020% → 11%
AKRDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 2:4341% → 44%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
41.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jarvis Rush for 10 yds to the AKR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2757% → 54%
AKRDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2447% → 48%
Q2 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
49.7%
Tahj Bullock sacked by Martez Poynter for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 1:5652% → 48%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 3 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
48.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 6 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
49.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 8 yds · 0:1252% → 51%
AKRDrive 14PUNT12 plays · 25 yds · 4:1353% → 56%
TOLDrive 15MISSED FG11 plays · 65 yds · 4:4944% → 42%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
55.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+14
54.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 14 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
53.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the AKR 47Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
53.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the AKR 34Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
52.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Elijah Reed) to the AKR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
53.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 3 yds to the AKR 9Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+1
55.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 1 yd to the AKR 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16TD14 plays · 80 yds · 6:5166% → 91%
Q3 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
66.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 15 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
67.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 15 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+23
77.9%
Ben Finley run for 13 yds to the TOL 22 Toledo Penalty, Defensive holding (Jackson Barrow) to the TOL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD11 plays · 85 yds · 3:0113% → 26%
Q4 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
87.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 7 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+21
88.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 21 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
86.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 17 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+29
86.6%
Connor Walendzak run for 19 yds to the AKR 19 Akron Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Darrian Lewis) to the AKR 9Similar
Q4 10:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.5%
Anthony Torres 7 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2882% → 87%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
81.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Charles Kellom for 3 yds to the AKR 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD7 plays · 92 yds · 2:3916% → 60%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
83.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the TOL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+22
82.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 7 yds to the TOL 33 Akron Penalty, personal foul (Gage Summers) to the TOL 48Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+24
79.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 24 yds to the AKR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
40.4%
Jerjuan Newton 19 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5556% → 51%
TOLDrive 21MISSED FG9 plays · 62 yds · 14:4858% → 57%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton, broken up by Catrell WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
49.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 16 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
44.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 15 yds to the AKR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+57.4
TD · OT 0:00
Charles Kellom 25 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Garrison Smith Kick)
+49.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:41
Charles Kellom run for 8 yds to the AKR 16
-48.3