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OHIO

Ohio 24 at Toledo 7

TOL
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 20, 2024 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:32 · Jack Wilson punt for 36 yds, downed at the TOL 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.5Pregame prior+6.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:12: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +10.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:20: Parker Navarro 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +15.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:46: Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 2 yds to the OHIO 49 — OHIO win probability +8.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:19: Parker Navarro 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +17.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:07: Anthony Tyus III 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +15.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:20OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:07TOL 4th & 11 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:32OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:50TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:08OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:28OHIO 4th & 11 at OHIO 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:32OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 31, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:03OHIO 4th & 7 at TOL 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:27TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:03OHIO 4th & 3 at TOL 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.7%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:46TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:46OHIO 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.2%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:19OHIO 4th & 2 at TOL 2, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−4.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−22.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:53TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−5.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:57TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 36, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:31OHIO 4th & 6 at TOL 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−3.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00OHIO 4th & 6 at TOL 26, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:12TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:20OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:19OHIO Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:07OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.8%
Parker Navarro run for 4 yds to the OHIO 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
56.8%
Parker Navarro run for 2 yds to the OHIO 31Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
57.0%
Jack Wilson punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1357% → 57%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
57.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
57.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
57.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the OHIO 46Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-4
57.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 11
50
0
56.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 47 yds, downed at the OHIO 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:3543% → 43%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
57.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 9 yds to the OHIO 12Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+2
57.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the OHIO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
57.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for 6 yds to the OHIO 20Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+15
56.9%
NAVARRO, Parker pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for OWEN, Coleman thrown to the TOLEDO46. PENALTY TOLEDO Pass Interference on AWLS, Braden enforced 15 yards to the OHIO35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.8%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
56.9%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the OHIO 36Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+3
57.0%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
57.0%
Jack Wilson punt for 36 yds, downed at the TOL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4257% → 57%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
57.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Shay Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the TOL 18Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
56.9%
Sevaughn Clark run for 2 yds to the TOL 20Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
56.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
56.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:4244% → 44%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
56.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 8 yds to the OHIO 35Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
56.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the OHIO 35Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
56.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the OHIO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
56.3%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the OHIO 40Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
56.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the OHIO 44Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
55.9%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
56.1%
Jack Wilson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5158% → 58%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
57.6%
Sevaughn Clark run for no gain to the TOL 20Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
57.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
57.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 12 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
58.7%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-10
59.2%
GLEASON, Tucker scrambles to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the TOLEDO47 (TAYLOR, Shay), out of bounds, clock 00:00. PENALTY TOLEDO Holding on RHETT, Cole enforced 10 yards from the TOLEDO45 to the TOLEDO35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+13
57.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 13 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
58.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
57.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 29 yds, downed at the OHIO 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4944% → 42%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
56.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 21Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+1
56.5%
Parker Navarro run for 1 yd to the OHIO 22Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
57.0%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+19
57.6%
Jack Wilson punt for 47 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 19 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1660% → 71%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
50
+6
59.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 6 yds to the OHIO 44Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
60.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+10
59.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 10 yds to the OHIO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
60.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
60.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 9 yds to the OHIO 25Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
59.7%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the OHIO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
70.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT
15 plays · 31 yds · 6:0434% → 30%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
66.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 8 yds to the OHIO 32Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
65.4%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-5
67.6%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OHIO 27Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+4
68.1%
Parker Navarro run for 4 yds to the OHIO 31Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+7
68.4%
Mason Williams run for 7 yds to the OHIO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
66.8%
Ohio Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OHIO 31Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 17
OWN 31
+15
67.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for 15 yds to the OHIO 46Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
65.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 6 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.6%
Parker Navarro run for no gain to the TOL 48Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
66.1%
Parker Navarro run for no gain to the TOL 48Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-5
66.8%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OHIO 47Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+8
67.6%
Parker Navarro run for 8 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
70.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3674% → 72%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
73.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-2
73.7%
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 10 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Willie Shaw III W. Shaw III return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
72.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 9
OWN 10
+5
72.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 49 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 5 yds to the OHIO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5728% → 25%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
72.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 45Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
73.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 8 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
72.0%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
73.3%
Jack Wilson punt for 46 yds, downed at the TOL 1Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
75.3%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the TOL 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5576% → 72%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
75.5%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the TOL 7Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+1
76.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 8Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
72.1%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the TOL 10Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 10
-3
71.8%
[SG] Kneel down by GLEASON, Tucker at TOLEDO7 (team loss of 3); TOLEDO turnover on downs, clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0969% → 68%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
69.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the TOL 13Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
69.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 13Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
68.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
67.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 46 yds, downed at the OHIO 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14INT
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:3431% → 35%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+3
69.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for 3 yds to the OHIO 34Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+4
69.4%
Parker Navarro run for 4 yds to the OHIO 38Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+12
69.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 1
50
+10
67.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 10 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
66.3%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (Davion Weatherspoon) to the TOL 45Similar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+6
67.5%
Parker Navarro run for 6 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+34
66.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 34 yds to the TOL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
65.2%
Parker Navarro pass intercepted Maxen Hook return for 5 yds to the TOL 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+40
71.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 40 yds Eric Holley III fumbled, recovered by OHIO Roman Parodie R. Parodie return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:4033% → 50%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
67.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
67.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 3 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+34
67.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 34 yds to the TOL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the TOL 1Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
65.3%
HUNT JR., Rickey rush to the right for no gain to the TOLEDO6 (BOLDEN, Daniel). PENALTY TOLEDO Face mask on DUNN JR, Anthony enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the TOLEDO6 to the TOLEDO3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.3%
Parker Navarro 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:2954% → 57%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
53.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 16 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
57.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
56.8%
Junior Vandeross III run for 4 yds to the OHIO 47 fumbled, recovered by OHIO Adonis Williams Jr. A. Williams Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 6:2752% → 73%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
48.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 2 yds to the OHIO 49Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
48.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-15
48.4%
Ohio Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Carson Heidecker) to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.8%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+20
49.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for 20 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
47.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 16 yds to the TOL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
46.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 9 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+3
46.1%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the TOL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
46.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the TOL 5Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
42.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the TOL 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
44.3%
Eamonn Dennis run for 1 yd to the TOL 2Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.6%
Parker Navarro 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2631% → 27%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
30.8%
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 22Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
29.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 17 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Tucker Gleason , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
26.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:4677% → 94%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
23.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 38Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+7
24.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 7 yds to the OHIO 45Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+5
23.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
50
-1
22.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 49Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+5
22.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+45
22.6%
Parker Navarro run for 45 yds to the TOL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the TOL 1Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.9%
Anthony Tyus III 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:107% → 5%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.8%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (Eric Holley III) to the TOL 20Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
6.7%
John Alan Richter run for 4 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
6.7%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+20
6.6%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
7.4%
John Alan Richter run for 2 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-15
7.4%
Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Carter Fouty) to the TOL 31Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 23
OWN 31
+5
6.6%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 18
OWN 36
-11
5.1%
run for a loss of 11 yards to the TOL 25 fumbled, recovered by TOL John Alan Richter J. Alan Richter return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22FG
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:2696% → 98%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
4.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the TOL 25Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
4.7%
Parker Navarro run for 14 yds to the TOL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
2.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the TOL 10Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-3
2.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 13Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+6
2.2%
Parker Navarro run for 6 yds to the TOL 7Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
1.6%
Gianni Spetic 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.2%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
1.2%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
1.2%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 3 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.2%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
1.2%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 1 yd to the TOL 37Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-25
1.1%
John Alan Richter sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TOL 30 John Alan Richter fumbled, recovered by OHIO Roman Parodie , return for 0 yards Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Allen Jones Jr.) to the TOL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
0.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+2
0.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-2
0.5%
Parker Navarro run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 26Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+5
0.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the TOL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:19
Parker Navarro 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)
-17.8
TD · Q4 8:07
Anthony Tyus III 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)
-15.9
TD · Q3 6:20
Parker Navarro 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com