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BUF

Buffalo 37 at Eastern Michigan 20

EMU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 20, 2024 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:01 · Mitchell Tomasek punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:08: Victor Snow 7 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick) — BUF win probability +20.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:51: Terry Lockett Jr. 38 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick) — EMU win probability +12.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:14: Al-Jay Henderson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BUF win probability +14.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:54: Markus Allen 78 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick) — EMU win probability +33.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:43: Al-Jay Henderson 75 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick) — BUF win probability +32.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:34EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:01EMU 4th & 10 at BUF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:07BUF 4th & 8 at EMU 37, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:01EMU 4th & 10 at BUF 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:09BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 43, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:15EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 27, down 8
    Close callPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:27BUF 4th & 10 at EMU 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:08BUF 4th & 3 at EMU 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:14BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:50BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 4, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−3.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−14.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:13BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:41EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 19, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:37BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:07EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:20BUF 4th & 4 at EMU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:59EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:43EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 8:47BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    46.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:08BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:51EMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:14BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:52EMU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:54EMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:43BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:59BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2556% → 56%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 6 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
55.8%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
55.8%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the EMU 33Similar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
55.8%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the EMU 28Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
55.8%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 51 yds, downed at the BUF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2644% → 44%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
55.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 22Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
55.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 8 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
55.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
55.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-1
55.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 33Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
56.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
56.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Oran Singleton at the EMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:5056% → 56%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
56.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 8 yds to the EMU 37Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+9
56.4%
Delbert Mimms III run for 9 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
56.6%
Cole Snyder run for 11 yds to the BUF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
56.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 9 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-9
57.0%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cole Snyder) to the BUF 43Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
56.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
56.1%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
53.6%
JJ Jenkins 90 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Andrew Schnackenberg Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4952% → 52%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
51.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 15 yds to the EMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
51.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the EMU 36Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
51.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-10
51.5%
Cole Snyder pass intercepted Shaun Dolac return for 10 yds to the EMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3148% → 49%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
51.9%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the EMU 37Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
51.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the EMU 34Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-3
51.3%
Andrew Schnackenberg sacked by Jefferson Adam for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 37Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+55
51.2%
Upton Bellenfant 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0350% → 48%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
50.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 5 yds to the EMU 42Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
50.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the EMU 45Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+14
50.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Joey Mattord for 14 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
50.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 43Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+2
49.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 2 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
49.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
48.3%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 39 yds, downed at the BUF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4350% → 52%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
50.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
50.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 5Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+13
50.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 13 yds to the BUF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
49.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 16 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
48.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 4 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
47.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
47.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+36
48.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 36 yds , Oran Singleton returns for no gain to the EMU 19 , returns for no gain to the EMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4647% → 46%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
46.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the EMU 24Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
46.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+3
46.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 3 yds to the EMU 27Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+8
45.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 51 yds , Victor Snow returns for 8 yds to the BUF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:3952% → 55%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
47.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 5 yds to the BUF 35Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+11
46.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 11 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
45.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
45.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the EMU 49Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+6
45.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 6 yds to the EMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
44.4%
Messiah Burch run for 4 yds to the EMU 39Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
44.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 1 yd to the EMU 38Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
44.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 5
OPP 38
-5
44.8%
Buffalo Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kobe Stewart) to the EMU 43Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
45.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 37 yds, downed at the EMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11SF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5645% → 41%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
44.7%
Joey Mattord run for 7 yds to the EMU 13Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 3
OWN 13
-5
43.5%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the EMU 8Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 8
-8
41.0%
Dion Crawford SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 7:0951% → 76%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
49.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 21Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
50.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 8 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
47.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
46.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 35Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
46.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+10
47.4%
(06:35) OGBONNA, C.J. pass deep to the right intercepted by CARTER, David at the EMU38 intended for JOHNSON, Taji. Carter return for 0 yards to the EMU38; QB hurried by DJONKAM, James and JEFFERSON, Justin, End of Play, clock 06:30. PENALTY EMU Holding on MCNULTY, Dramarian enforced 10 yards from the BUFF35 to the BUFF45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
45.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 5
50
+9
45.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the EMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
44.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the EMU 37Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
44.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 5 yds to the EMU 32Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
45.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the EMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
43.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
44.0%
(03:34) OGBONNA, C.J. pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JENKINS, JJ broken up by CARTER, David at the EMU0, clock 03:29. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on WHITE, Daiquan enforced 15 yards to the EMU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
43.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-2
43.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMU 16Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+9
43.9%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 9 yds to the EMU 7Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
23.7%
Victor Snow 7 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:1031% → 32%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
30.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 13 yds to the BUF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
31.1%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the BUF 42Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
30.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 10 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
31.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for 8 yds to the BUF 24Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+12
29.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 12 yds to the BUF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
31.5%
Cole Snyder pass intercepted, touchback. Solomon Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:1281% → 80%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
19.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 21Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
18.9%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
19.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4376% → 76%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the EMU 47Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-6
23.1%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 6 yards to the BUF 47Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
24.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for no gain to the BUF 47Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
24.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 43 yds, downed at the EMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:1525% → 36%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
24.7%
Cole Snyder run for 6 yds to the EMU 16Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+5
24.2%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the EMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
23.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 4 yds to the EMU 25Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
23.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 5 yds to the EMU 30Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
23.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the EMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
23.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 14 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
24.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
24.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 16 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
36.3%
Terry Lockett Jr. 38 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3567% → 86%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
33.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 16 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
30.7%
(09:07) OGBONNA, C.J. pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BURCH, Messiah thrown to the EMU25, clock 09:02. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on DJONKAM, James enforced 15 yards to the EMU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
30.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 19 yds to the EMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
29.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the EMU 22Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+9
29.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 9 yds to the EMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
28.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 5 yds to the EMU 8Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
27.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the EMU 7Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
28.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the EMU 4Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+3
28.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the EMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.1%
Al-Jay Henderson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2018% → 26%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 2 yds to the EMU 27Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+47
16.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 47 yds to the BUF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
19.7%
Oran Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 28Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+3
18.8%
Joey Mattord run for 3 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+9
18.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Joey Mattord for 9 yds to the BUF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
18.7%
Cole Snyder sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the BUF 21Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+8
17.8%
Joey Mattord run for 8 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
26.3%
Terry Lockett Jr. 13 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3776% → 75%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
24.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 17 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
22.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 40Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+3
22.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
22.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+46
24.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 46 yds , Oran Singleton returns for no gain to the EMU 10 , returns for no gain to the EMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2417% → 13%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
17.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the EMU 15Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-10
16.6%
(13:30) SNYDER, Cole pass to the left complete for 10 yards to SINGLETON, Oran caught at the EMU25 and advanced to the EMU25 (MCCARTHERENS, Charles), clock 13:24. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on LOCKETT, Terry enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards to the EMU8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+9
16.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 9 yds to the EMU 17Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+2
14.5%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the EMU 19Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
13.0%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 38 yds, downed at the BUF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5784% → 87%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
16.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+2
15.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+2
13.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 2 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+1
12.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 46 yds , Max Reese returns for 1 yd to the EMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:3113% → 46%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
13.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 12 yds to the EMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
46.2%
Markus Allen 78 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
13.4%
Al-Jay Henderson 75 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3411% → 7%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
10.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Deion Brown for 10 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
11.0%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, False Start (Terry Lockett Jr.) to the EMU 30Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
10.6%
Deion Brown run for 4 yds to the EMU 34Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
10.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jere Getzinger for 6 yds to the EMU 40Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
9.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Antonio Colclough for a loss of 5 yards to the EMU 35Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+2
6.9%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the EMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3892% → 91%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
8.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for no gain to the EMU 37Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
8.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the EMU 36Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+5
8.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
9.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 26INT TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:184% → 1%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
3.9%
Jeremiah Salem run for 1 yd to the EMU 32Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+14
5.8%
Jeremiah Salem pass complete to Markus Allen for 14 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.3%
Jeremiah Salem pass complete to Max Reese for no gain to the EMU 46Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-60
0.9%
Shaun Dolac 60 Yd Interception Return (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Jeremiah Salem pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.8%
Deion Brown run for 9 yds to the EMU 34Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
0.9%
Deion Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 33Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the EMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
0.7%
Jeremiah Salem sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 35Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 13
OWN 35
-4
0.7%
Jeremiah Salem sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the EMU 31Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+10
0.7%
Jeremiah Salem pass complete to Max Reese for 10 yds to the EMU 41Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
0.7%
Jeremiah Salem pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
0.9%
(00:37) [NHSG] Kneel down by OGBONNA, C.J. at EMU43 (team loss of 2), clock 00:33.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:54
Markus Allen 78 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick)
+33
TD · Q4 8:43
Al-Jay Henderson 75 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)
-32.8
TD · Q2 2:08
Victor Snow 7 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)
-20.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com