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WMU

Western Michigan 14 at Central Michigan 16

CMU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 19, 2024 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.8CMU 46.0%Tristan Mattson 30 Yd Field GoalAWAY 14 - HOME 13 · Q4 14:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:56 · Tristan Mattson 30 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior−4.6Home team on offense−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−1.2Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:22: Cade Graham kickoff for 59 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 23 yds to the WMU 42 Western Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WMU 10 — CMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Tristan Mattson 47 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:56: Timeout Central Michigan, clock 14:56 — WMU win probability +4.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:15: Jalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick) — CMU win probability +18.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:15: Timeout Central Michigan, clock 07:15 — CMU win probability +13.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 13:34WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:16CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:46WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:41CMU 4th & 6 at WMU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:39WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:13WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:11CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:53WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:53WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:25CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:04WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 10:04CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 8:27WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:27CMU 4th & 8 at WMU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−5.4
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:55WMU 4th & 3 at CMU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:56CMU 4th & 7 at WMU 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−15.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:41WMU 4th & 10 at CMU 36, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:01CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−2.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:38WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 38, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:06CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1668% → 67%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 3 yds to the WMU 22Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
32.2%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 20Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
32.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jaden NixonSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
32.7%
Ryan Millmore punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1633% → 33%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.7%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
32.8%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
32.7%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Marion LukesSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
32.7%
David Chapeau punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordin Parker at the WMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2567% → 66%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
32.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
33.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 18Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
33.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jordin ParkerSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
33.6%
Ryan Millmore punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Donte Kent at the WMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5834% → 34%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
33.8%
Myles Bailey run for 6 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-6
34.1%
Jadyn Glasser run for a loss of 6 yards to the WMU 49Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
34.1%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Myles Bailey for 4 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
34.3%
David Chapeau punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordin Parker at the WMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:5666% → 65%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
34.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 3 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+18
34.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 18 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
34.5%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
34.6%
Jaden Nixon run for 4 yds to the WMU 36Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
34.7%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the WMU 36Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
35.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:2836% → 41%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
35.5%
B.J. Harris run for 9 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+55
36.6%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Solomon Davis for 55 yds to the WMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.7%
B.J. Harris run for 6 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4860% → 59%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Blake BosmaSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
40.5%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Chris ToudleSimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
40.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5641% → 41%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
41.3%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 41Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
41.7%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 45Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
41.7%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Marion LukesSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
41.1%
David Chapeau punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:1359% → 57%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
41.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the WMU 22Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
41.4%
Lorenzo Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
42.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 4 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
42.0%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
42.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 33Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
43.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 5 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
43.2%
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donte Kent at the CMU 23Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
43.2%
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donte Kent at the CMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2344% → 45%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
43.7%
(14:52) Shotgun Glasser,Jadyn pass incomplete short left to McIntosh,Tommy thrown to CMU35 PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (Kone,Bilhal) 15 yards from CMU23 to CMU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
44.6%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 39Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
45.3%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Solomon Davis for 2 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
45.2%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMU 41Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
45.0%
David Chapeau punt for 39 yds , Jordin Parker returns for no gain to the WMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0255% → 53%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
45.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 10 yds to the WMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
45.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 20Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
46.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
47.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5551% → 50%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
50.8%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Nathan VanTimmerenSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
50.7%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the CMU 36Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
51.1%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to Myles BaileySimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+6
50.3%
David Chapeau punt for 35 yds , Jordin Parker returns for 6 yds to the WMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3453% → 51%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
46.6%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
47.0%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 3 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
47.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jordin ParkerSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
48.6%
Ryan Millmore punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Donte Kent at the CMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:5553% → 64%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
52.8%
B.J. Harris run for 4 yds to the CMU 12Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+1
53.8%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 13Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+26
54.0%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to B.J. Harris for 26 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
56.5%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to B.J. Harris for 21 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
58.2%
Jadyn Glasser sacked by Corey Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 43Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+6
57.9%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+17
58.4%
Marion Lukes run for 17 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
60.2%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
60.7%
B.J. Harris run for no gain to the WMU 18Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
59.8%
Central Michigan Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
63.5%
Tristan Mattson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:0540% → 37%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
60.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 10 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
62.0%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the WMU 24Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+11
62.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 11 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
61.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
50
-2
59.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 48Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+6
63.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 6 yds to the CMU 46Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+3
61.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 3 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
62.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kaevion MackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:5070% → 75%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
69.5%
Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the CMU 48Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
69.8%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
65.4%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
67.9%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Solomon Davis for 16 yds to the WMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+47
74.5%
Tristan Mattson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17INT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4670% → 75%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
70.0%
Marion Lukes run for 10 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
71.3%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
73.4%
Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the CMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
74.2%
(13:04) PENALTY CMU False Start (Heinzen,Davis) 5 yards from CMU48 to CMU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+19
74.5%
Marion Lukes run for 19 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
75.9%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the WMU 37Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+1
75.0%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the WMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FG
19 plays · 50 yds · 10:1244% → 46%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
44.2%
Jadyn Glasser sacked by Corey Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 31Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+6
42.2%
Jadyn Glasser run for 6 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+12
41.8%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Marion Lukes for 12 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
47.3%
Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMU 49Similar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
47.5%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the WMU 48Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
48.3%
Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
47.9%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.2%
Jadyn Glasser pass incomplete to B.J. HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
48.9%
Myles Bailey run for 6 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
48.7%
Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the WMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
51.1%
B.J. Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 31Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+5
50.8%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+11
49.6%
B.J. Harris run for 11 yds to the WMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
50.7%
B.J. Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 19Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+4
49.9%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the WMU 15Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+3
48.8%
Jadyn Glasser run for 3 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
46.0%
Tristan Mattson 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19TD
18 plays · 76 yds · 7:2659% → 52%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
40.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 17 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
36.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
36.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 8 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
35.7%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jason Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the WMU 45Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+17
39.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 17 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
34.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
35.7%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Ke'Shon Parker for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 43Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+7
36.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 7 yds to the CMU 36Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
36.2%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jordin ParkerSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+18
38.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kaevion Mack for 18 yds to the CMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
31.3%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jason Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 21Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+15
32.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 15 yds to the CMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
29.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the CMU 1Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.7%
Jalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0061% → 64%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
61.1%
Marion Lukes run for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 22Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+8
65.2%
Myles Bailey run for 8 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+4
64.4%
Jadyn Glasser pass complete to Myles Bailey for 4 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
64.3%
David Chapeau punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1939% → 35%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.0%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 35Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
64.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.5%
Hayden Wolff run for 3 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+29
65.2%
Ryan Millmore punt for 46 yds , Donte Kent returns for 29 yds to the CMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 12 yds · 3:3170% → 96%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
69.8%
B.J. Harris run for 6 yds to the CMU 36Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
80.2%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 37Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
78.7%
B.J. Harris run for 4 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
82.4%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 45Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
82.7%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
88.4%
J. Glasser takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 17
OWN 46
-1
87.7%
J. Glasser takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 45
-3
95.6%
J. Glasser takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:15
Jalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)
+18.3
TD · Q4 7:15
Timeout Central Michigan, clock 07:15
+13.3
FG · Q2 2:22
Cade Graham kickoff for 59 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 23 yds to the WMU 42 Western Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WMU 10
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com