2024 · Week 12 · Nov 13, 2024 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:00 · Mitchell Tomasek punt for 65 yds, downed at the OHIO 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:47: Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:11: Parker Navarro run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:04: Parker Navarro run for 25 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +11.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 13:07: Parker Navarro run for 2 yds to the OHIO 17 — OHIO win probability +6.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:20: Parker Navarro run for 1 yd for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +8.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:25EMU 4th & 7 at OHIO 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it24.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.0%average punt
- Q1 11:49OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snapGo for it75.7%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.7%average punt
- Q1 9:37EMU 4th & 13 at OHIO 38, tiedClose callPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it24.5%−0.121% to convertField goal24.5%38% to makePuntTheir call24.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:12OHIO 4th & 6 at EMU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snapGo for it73.8%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call73.9%84% to makePunt72.4%−1.5average punt
- Q1 1:23EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.0%−0.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.7%average punt
- Q1 0:35OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it72.7%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.9%average punt
- Q2 11:55OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snapGo for it64.5%−0.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q2 10:00EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 30, up 7Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snapGo for it36.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 5:51EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it31.2%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.0%average punt
- Q2 4:51OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snapGo for it67.9%−0.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%average punt
- Q3 13:40EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt21.1%−2.3average punt
- Q3 7:22OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 44, up 7Close callPunted · 81.1% before the snapGo for it81.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:04EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.9%−2.1average punt
- Q4 13:13EMU 4th & 11 at OHIO 11, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snapGo for it7.2%−1.322% to convertField goalTheir call8.5%87% to makePunt2.5%−6.0average punt
- Q4 1:52EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 29, down 25Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:47EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.6%97% to makeGo for two33.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:11OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:13OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.4%97% to makeGo for two76.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:04OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:20OHIO Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:59OHIO Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3524% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
76.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 12 yds to the EMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3676% → 76%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
75.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 6 yds to the OHIO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 2:1225% → 25%
OHIODrive 4MISSED FG14 plays · 74 yds · 6:2575% → 74%
Q1 9:37
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+19
74.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 19 yds to the OHIO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
75.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 11 yds to the OHIO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
75.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 8 yds to the EMU 47Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+29
75.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 29 yds to the EMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-1
74.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4927% → 27%
OHIODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4874% → 73%
Q1 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
72.7%
Jack Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Oran Singleton at the EMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7TD7 plays · 85 yds · 2:4828% → 37%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
72.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 13 yds to the EMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
71.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for no gain to the EMU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
71.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 3 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+44
71.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 44 yds to the OHIO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
63.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5265% → 64%
Q2 11:55
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
64.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Oran Singleton at the EMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5538% → 34%
OHIODrive 10TD5 plays · 95 yds · 2:4964% → 74%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+21
63.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 21 yds to the OHIO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+34
63.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 34 yds to the EMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+31
66.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 31 yds to the EMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2033% → 32%
OHIODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0070% → 68%
Q2 4:51
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+16
68.4%
Jack Wilson punt for 47 yds , Oran Singleton returns for 16 yds to the EMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13INT9 plays · 33 yds · 2:2134% → 31%
Q2 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+10
66.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 10 yds to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
65.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Joey Mattord for 4 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.7%
Cole Snyder pass intercepted Ben McNaboe return for no gain to the OHIO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD11 plays · 75 yds · 1:4769% → 77%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
68.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 4 yds to the OHIO 24Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+26
67.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+15
71.9%
NAVARRO, Parker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RODARTE, Max thrown to the EMU1. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on WHITE, Daiquan enforced 15 yards to the EMU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
72.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for no gain to the EMU 29Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
72.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 9 yds to the EMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15END OF HALF3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0319% → 20%
OHIODrive 16INT3 plays · 20 yds · 1:2078% → 80%
EMUDrive 17INT5 plays · 13 yds · 2:2723% → 25%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 3 yds to the EMU 40Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
76.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
50
0
75.1%
Cole Snyder pass intercepted Tank Pearson return for no gain to the OHIO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:5179% → 81%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
79.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eamonn Dennis for 6 yds to the OHIO 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19INT3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1123% → 22%
Q3 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-1
78.1%
Cole Snyder pass intercepted Tank Pearson return for 1 yd to the EMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21FG18 plays · 64 yds · 7:5113% → 15%
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
86.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 3 yds to the EMU 45Similar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
85.1%
Cole Snyder sacked by CJ Doggette for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 49Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+7
86.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 7 yds to the OHIO 42Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
87.9%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 6 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by EMU Delbert Mimms III D. Mimms III return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
87.9%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dramarian McNulty) to the OHIO 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD9 plays · 85 yds · 5:4792% → 99%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
92.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 13 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
92.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 9 yds to the EMU 17Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+16
90.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eamonn Dennis for 16 yds to the EMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23FUMBLE2 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
97.0%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the EMU 19 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by OHIO Kaci Seegars , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24TD7 plays · 19 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q4 7:12
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+12
99.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 12 yds to the EMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Jake Bruno for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 7Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 3 yds to the EMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:071% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 18 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:04
Parker Navarro run for 25 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q4 7:20
Parker Navarro run for 1 yd for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 7:11
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+7.3