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BALL

Ball State 48 at Buffalo 51

BUF
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 12, 2024 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:16 · Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 40 yds , Victor Snow returns for 7 yds to the BUF 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense−29.5Garbage-time factor−13.3Score differential−8.7Pregame prior+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:56: Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +14.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:46: Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 65 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +24.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Cam Pickett run for 9 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +14.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:49: JJ Jenkins 33 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (C.J. Ogbonna Pass to Jake Orlando for Two-Point Conversion) — BUF win probability +45.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:49: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for no gain to the BUF 35 — BUF win probability +20.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:13BUF 4th & 1 at BALL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:11BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:06BUF 4th & 9 at BALL 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−5.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:22BALL 4th & 17 at BUF 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:32BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:54BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 12, up 4
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:46BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:02BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:08BALL 4th & 8 at BUF 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:43BUF 4th & 10 at BALL 26, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:16BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:16BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:05BALL 4th & 1 at BUF 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−4.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−13.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:13BALL 4th & 10 at BUF 41, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 19.5 ptsPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−13.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−19.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:47BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:34BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:14BALL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:40BUF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:12BALL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:56BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:46BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:56BALL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:43BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:49BUF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.7%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 2TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:1354% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
54.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
54.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
54.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 11 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
54.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BALL 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+14
54.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 14 yds to the BALL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
54.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 6 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
54.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BALL 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
54.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BALL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
54.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BALL 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+4
54.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BALL 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
54.3%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BALL 13Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+4
55.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BALL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
55.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BALL 6Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
55.9%
Victor Snow run for 3 yds to the BALL 3Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.3%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:0842% → 47%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
57.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 16 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.6%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
57.7%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 8 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
57.2%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
57.1%
Cam Pickett run for 6 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+25
56.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 10 yds to the BUF 38 Buffalo Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Eddie Pleasant III) to the BUF 23Similar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
53.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 23 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1755% → 54%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
55.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for no gain to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
55.2%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush right (Newson,Keionte;Tolsma,Riley).Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
54.7%
pass incomplete to Taji JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
54.4%
Ethan Duane punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:1645% → 53%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
55.0%
Tj Horton run for 6 yds to the BALL 33Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
54.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tj Horton for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 32Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+53
55.1%
Kadin Semonza run for 53 yds to the BUF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
53.4%
pass incomplete to Tj HortonSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
53.4%
Tanner Koziol run for 6 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
53.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the BUF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
47.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 2 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0546% → 46%
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.4%
Ogbonna,C.J. rush middle (Tolsma,Riley).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.4%
Victor Snow 2 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:3950% → 53%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
49.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 5 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
50.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
50
+41
50.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 41 yds to the BALL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
51.7%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush (Coleman,Jordan;Newson,Keionte), PENALTY BUF holding (Doty,Tyler) 10 yards to the BSU-1. Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Doty) to the BALL 19Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+15
51.4%
Messiah Burch run for 15 yds to the BALL 4Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
51.7%
Messiah Burch run for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 9Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
50.9%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
53.3%
Upton Bellenfant 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:4547% → 59%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
53.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 11 yds to the BALL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tyce Ferrell for no gain to the BALL 34Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
53.3%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BALL 35Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+53
54.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 53 yds to the BUF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
51.1%
Malcolm Gillie run for 11 yds to the BUF 1 Malcolm Gillie fumbled, recovered by BALL for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.1%
Pemberton,Vaughn rush middle (Murdock,Red).Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4043% → 43%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
43.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+6
42.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 34 Al-Jay Henderson fumbled, recovered by BALL Thailand BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:0760% → 58%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
40.4%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 4 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-10
40.2%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 10 yards to the BUF 40Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 16
OPP 40
-1
41.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 41Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
41.9%
Kadin Semonza punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4241% → 58%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
41.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+9
42.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 9 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
42.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 4 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+49
43.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 49 yds to the BALL 11 for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Defensive holding (Myles Norwood) to the BALL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
45.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Jake Orlando for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (George Udo) to the BALL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:2050% → 65%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
50.5%
Tj Horton run for 1 yd to the BALL 38Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
50.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
50
+3
48.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+22
47.9%
Cam Pickett run for 22 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
46.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
34.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 22 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:3139% → 38%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
39.4%
pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
39.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 13 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.0%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
40.1%
pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
39.1%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
37.5%
Ethan Duane punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:2362% → 64%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
38.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
36.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.0%
Kadin Semonza pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:2352% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
47.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+1
48.1%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BALL 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+7
49.2%
Kadin Semonza run for 7 yds to the BALL 12Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+5
49.7%
Brian Cooey Jr. puntSimilar
Q3 12:54
4TH & -2
OWN 17
+4
50.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BALL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
46.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the BALL 26Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
46.2%
Pemberton,Vaughn rush middle (White,Malin;Hines III,Clevester).Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
47.1%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:4148% → 68%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
48.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
50.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
51.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+26
51.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 26 yds to the BALL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
53.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BALL 16Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
53.5%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BALL 12Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+7
51.3%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 7 yds to the BALL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
53.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BALL 4Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1038% → 35%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
62.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 20 yds to the BALL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.8%
Sloan,Braedon rush right (Fuqua,Marcus).Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
59.6%
Kelly,Kiael rush right (Evans,Cornell;Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
60.8%
pass incomplete to Justin BowickSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
64.7%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4464% → 61%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
63.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
64.1%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
62.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Jake Orlando, broken up by George UdoSimilar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
61.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:1637% → 61%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.3%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Braedon Sloan, broken up by Cornell EvansSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+65
39.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 65 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3742% → 40%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
42.6%
pass incomplete to Evan KingSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
40.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 15:0455% → 81%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
44.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BUF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
33.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the BUF 14Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
33.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BUF 10Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.4%
Cam Pickett run for 9 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:4322% → 24%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
22.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
22.9%
pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+10
21.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 10 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
23.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+11
24.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 11 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
25.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
26.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 10 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
24.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 5:0081% → 94%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
19.1%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Cam Pickett, broken up by Kobe StewartSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+17
19.2%
Tj Horton run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
50
+9
17.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
17.0%
Horton,TJ rush middle (Evans,Cornell).Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+30
17.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 30 yds to the BUF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
16.7%
Charlie Spegal run for 1 yd to the BUF 10Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-2
16.7%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 12Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+3
17.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 3 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
6.4%
Jackson Courville 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:257% → 23%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
7.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 5 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, personal foul (Nathan Reichert) to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
8.0%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+29
7.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 29 yds to the BALL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
9.3%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush right (Tolsma,Riley;Udo,George).Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
8.9%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
8.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+26
16.9%
C.J. Ogbonna 26 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
22.5%
Buffalo Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BALL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2789% → 91%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.0%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
10.8%
Tj Horton run for 10 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
10.0%
Tj Horton run for 2 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
9.9%
pass incomplete to Justin BowickSimilar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
10.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Justin Bowick, broken up by Marquis CooperSimilar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+7
9.3%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 40 yds , Victor Snow returns for 7 yds to the BUF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:2713% → 86%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
12.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to JJ Jenkins, broken up by Myles Norwood for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Myles Norwood) to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
15.5%
Lamar Sperling run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
14.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 4 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
14.7%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+10
12.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Victor Snow, broken up by Thailand Baldwin for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Defensive holding (Thailand Baldwin) to the BALL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
17.3%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
16.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to JJ Jenkins for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Eric McClain) to the BALL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
20.2%
pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
65.9%
JJ Jenkins 33 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (C.J. Ogbonna Pass to Jake Orlando for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
86.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for no gain to the BUF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 29PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 1:3031% → 23%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 10 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
67.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 12 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
62.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 6 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
59.2%
pass incomplete to Justin BowickSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
65.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 3 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+3
67.5%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol, broken up by Shaun DolacSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
65.9%
pass incomplete to Malcolm GillieSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
68.6%
pass incomplete to Cam PickettSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
77.5%
DD Snyder punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:49
JJ Jenkins 33 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (C.J. Ogbonna Pass to Jake Orlando for Two-Point Conversion)
+45.7
TD · Q3 2:46
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 65 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)
-24.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+22.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com