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NIU

Northern Illinois 42 at Western Michigan 28

WMU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 6, 2024 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:35 · Ryan Millmore punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Pregame prior−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:54: Jaden Nixon run for 14 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +15.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +12.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:46: Broc Lowry run for 1 yd for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +15.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:19: Gavin Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +14.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:49: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Mareyohn Hrabowski for 10 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +11.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 13:12NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:37WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:05NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:28WMU 4th & 1 at NIU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35WMU 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:40WMU 4th & 1 at NIU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−3.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:49WMU 4th & 2 at NIU 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:25NIU 4th & 4 at WMU 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:05WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:05WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:18WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:56NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:05NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:54WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:09NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:46WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:19NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:47NIU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:49WMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4854% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
45.8%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
45.8%
Ethan Hampton run for 7 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
45.8%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 43Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+7
46.2%
Tom Foley punt for 27 yds , Jordin Parker returns for 7 yds to the WMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2046% → 47%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
46.4%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Devonte O'Malley for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 30Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+12
46.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 12 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
46.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
46.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3253% → 53%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
46.7%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 16Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
46.7%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 19Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
46.8%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
47.3%
Tom Foley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordin Parker at the WMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4747% → 49%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
47.1%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 34Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+66
49.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 66 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:5051% → 51%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
49.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 28 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+49
49.1%
Antario Brown run for 49 yds to the WMU 2 Antario Brown fumbled, recovered by WMU Bilhal Kone B. Kone return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6INT
13 plays · 56 yds · 7:2849% → 54%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
49.4%
Hayden Wolff run for 4 yds to the WMU 6Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+10
49.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 10 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
49.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 17 yds to the WMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
49.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 8 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
50.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
50.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
50.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 8 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
50.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the NIU 47Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+1
49.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the NIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
50.5%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the NIU 46Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
50.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 2 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
50.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-15
54.1%
Ryan Millmore pass intercepted by Santana Banner, returrned 29 yards to the WMU 46. WMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the WMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0449% → 54%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
51.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the WMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
51.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 7 yds to the WMU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
51.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WMU 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
52.2%
Ethan Hampton run for 2 yds to the WMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2149% → 50%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
49.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
50.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
51.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds to the WMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
51.0%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 45Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
50.1%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+5
49.1%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Offsides (Skyler Gill-Howard) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 8
50
0
50.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 8
50
0
49.8%
Ryan Millmore punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 4:3051% → 65%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
48.9%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 6 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+2
48.6%
Ethan Hampton run for 2 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+4
49.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
48.7%
HAMPTON, Ethan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BARNES, Grayson thrown to the WMU32. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on KONE, Bilhal enforced 15 yards to the NIU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
47.2%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the NIU 42Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+13
47.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Brock Lampe for 13 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
46.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+31
46.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 31 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 7 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1139% → 56%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
38.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 28 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
41.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
41.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
41.5%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+12
40.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 12 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
42.8%
Kenneth Womack run for 3 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
44.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the NIU 21Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+7
41.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the NIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
56.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 14 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 1:4553% → 70%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
47.0%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
46.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 9 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
45.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 9 yds to the WMU 40Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+7
44.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the WMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
43.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 9 yds to the WMU 24Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
42.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+1
43.8%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the WMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
42.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
43.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+12
43.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 12 yds to the WMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:1441% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
40.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+17
42.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 17 yds to the NIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
42.1%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left incomplete intended for WOMACK, Kenneth thrown to the NIU0. PENALTY NIU Pass Interference on DOLPHIN, Jaden enforced 12 yards to the NIU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the NIU 1Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.3%
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5037% → 32%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
36.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 31Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-8
36.5%
Hayden Wolff pass intercepted Jaden Dolphin return for 8 yds to the WMU 35Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
31.5%
Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Cam Thompson) to the WMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 3:2468% → 83%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+12
32.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 12 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+3
31.3%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
31.3%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+11
31.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
31.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WMU 2Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.2%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16INT
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:4321% → 21%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
20.8%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 21Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
20.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 6 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+15
20.5%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the right incomplete thrown to the WMU40. PENALTY NIU Pass Interference on BANNER, Santana enforced 15 yards to the WMU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
22.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 13 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
23.4%
NIXON, Jaden rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the NIU42 (GILL-HOWARD, Skyler). PENALTY WMU Holding on WEST, Addison enforced 10 yards from the NIU45 to the WMU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+35
21.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 35 yds to the NIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
24.3%
WOLFF, Hayden pass deep up the middle complete for 19 yards to SAMBUCCI, Anthony caught at the NIU1 and advanced to the NIU1, End of Play. PENALTY WMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GIDEON, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the NIU20 to the NIU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+7
23.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the NIU 18Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-24
20.7%
Hayden Wolff pass intercepted Nate Valcarcel return for 24 yds to the NIU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:4985% → 97%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
15.3%
Gavin Williams run for 25 yds to the WMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
14.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
13.8%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
13.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
3.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:585% → 15%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
5.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 6 yds to the WMU 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
4.9%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the WMU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
5.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
5.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 11 yds to the NIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
5.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 19 yds to the NIU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
5.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 8 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
6.1%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the NIU 10Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
3.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
14.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Mareyohn Hrabowski for 10 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 7:2492% → 96%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
8.5%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 33Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
8.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
8.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 8 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
7.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the WMU 48Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
7.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the WMU 48Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
8.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
7.8%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
7.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
7.6%
JOHNSON JR., Telly rush up the middle for no gain to the WMU37 (WILLIS, Donald). PENALTY Before the snap, WMU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the WMU37 to the WMU32 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
7.5%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the WMU 31Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+2
3.8%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WMU 29Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+3
3.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
4.0%
Kanon Woodill 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:202% → 2%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
1.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
1.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
1.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+8
1.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 8 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
1.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 6 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
1.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
1.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
1.5%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 3:0598% → 99%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
2.1%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+13
1.3%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
1.3%
[NH] Kneel down by TEAM at WMU31 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-1
1.3%
[NH] Kneel down by TEAM at WMU32 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-1
1.2%
[NH] Kneel down by TEAM at WMU33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:46
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q2 1:54
Jaden Nixon run for 14 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 8:19
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com