2024 · Week 11 · Nov 6, 2024 · Dix Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:39 · Josh Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:01: Anthony Tyus III run for 19 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +1.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 11:54: Gianni Spetic 36 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +1.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:07: Parker Navarro run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +6.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:29: Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 10 yds to the OHIO 30 for a 1ST down — OHIO win probability +2.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:47: Eamonn Dennis 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 11 of 12OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 13:39KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it11.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q1 8:30OHIO 4th & 4 at KENT 25, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call86.6%−<0.166% to makePunt86.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:55KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q1 3:32KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q1 3:32KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q1 2:08OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snapGo for it86.1%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.4%average punt
- Q2 11:54OHIO 4th & 4 at KENT 19, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snapGo for it85.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call85.3%−0.177% to makePunt83.7%−1.7average punt
- Q2 8:23KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 45, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%average punt
- Q2 1:29KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 47, down 20Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:36KENT 4th & 6 at OHIO 36, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%40% to convertField goal1.7%−0.242% to makePunt1.6%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:07OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 45, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q3 6:52KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 14, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 4:43KENT 4th & 15 at KENT 14, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 2:27KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 43, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q4 9:12KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 42, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 3:02OHIO 4th & 1 at KENT 37, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.240% to makePunt99.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:02OHIO 4th & 1 at KENT 37, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.240% to makePunt99.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:08KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 41, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 5:01OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:07OHIO Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two91.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:47OHIO Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:52OHIO Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:13OHIO Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2112% → 12%
OHIODrive 2FG12 plays · 49 yds · 5:0988% → 86%
KENTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2814% → 14%
Q1 6:55
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
14.3%
Josh Smith punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD5 plays · 61 yds · 1:5486% → 87%
Q1 6:55
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+22
14.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 22 yds to the KENT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2914% → 13%
OHIODrive 6PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2486% → 86%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
14.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 12 yds to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7INT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 2:08
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
13.7%
Ruel Tomlinson pass complete to Ky Thomas for 9 yds to the KENT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8FG7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0686% → 87%
KENTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 3:2314% → 14%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
14.0%
Ruel Tomlinson sacked by CJ Doggette for a loss of 6 yards to the KENT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10TD11 plays · 72 yds · 5:1687% → 94%
Q2 8:23
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+9
13.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 9 yds to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+14
12.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass incomplete deep left to Owen,Coleman thrown to KSU01 broken up by Williams,Canaan, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Williams,Canaan) 14 yards from KSU38 to KSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
12.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 20 yds to the KENT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 1:329% → 9%
OHIODrive 12MISSED FG13 plays · 42 yds · 1:2994% → 95%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
5.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 10 yds to the OHIO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
5.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for 5 yds to the OHIO 35Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
5.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 9 yds to the KENT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 41 yds · 3:112% → 2%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
2.1%
Ruel Tomlinson pass complete to Luke Floriea for 16 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
2.2%
Ruel Tomlinson pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
2.4%
Ruel Tomlinson pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 3 yds to the OHIO 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2998% → 98%
Q3 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
1.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 4 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
2.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker rush middle for 8 yards gain to the KSU47 (Johns,Khalib; Williams,Canaan) PENALTY OHIO Holding (Atkinson,Christophe) 10 yards from OHIO45 to OHIO35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+10
2.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 10 yds to the OHIO 45Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
1.9%
Jack Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT TD5 plays · -1 yds · 2:152% → 1%
KENTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q3 6:48
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+4
0.8%
Ruel Tomlinson pass complete to Luke Floriea for 4 yds to the KENT 22Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-8
0.8%
Ruel Tomlinson sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 8 yards to the KENT 14Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 15
OWN 14
+11
0.6%
Josh Smith punt for 50 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 11 yds to the OHIO 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · 15 yds · 1:2799% → 99%
KENTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:491% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19TD6 plays · 79 yds · 3:1499% → 100%
KENTDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 34 yds · 4:500% → 0%
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thomas,Ky rush left for 6 yards gain to the KSU14 (Thomeson,Jalen; Haskins,JT) PENALTY OHIO Offside (Seegars,Kaci) 5 yards from KSU08 to KSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
0.2%
Ruel Tomlinson pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 18 yds to the KENT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Josh Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Max Rodarte at the OHIO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 50 yds · 6:10100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 1:08
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
0.0%
Josh Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Max Rodarte at the OHIO 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:07
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q3 14:47
Eamonn Dennis 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)
-3.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:29
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 10 yds to the OHIO 30 for a 1ST down
-2.9