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BUF

Buffalo 41 at Akron 30

AKR
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · Ben Finley pass incomplete to Bobby Golden, broken up by Eddie Pleasant III
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense−31.9Score differential−11.3Garbage-time factor−14.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.1Blowout margin−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:50: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 18 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +3.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:35: J. Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +3.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Akron Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the AKR 19 — BUF win probability +11.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:25: B. Finley pass to A. Norton for 25 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — AKR win probability +6.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:39: Kyan Mason 28 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Tahj Bullock Run for Two-Point Conversion) — AKR win probability +14.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:01BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:00AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:13BUF 4th & 1 at AKR 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−1.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19BUF 4th & 8 at AKR 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:27AKR 4th & 6 at BUF 47, down 17
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:06AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:04BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:58AKR 4th & 21 at AKR 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:04BUF 4th & 1 at AKR 1, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:51AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:30AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 8, down 24
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:11BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 33, up 16
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:11AKR 4th & 10 at BUF 38, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:59BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 33, up 8
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:38BUF 4th & 6 at AKR 18, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−4.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:13AKR 4th & 22 at BUF 46, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:50BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:35BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:33BUF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:25AKR Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:39AKR Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0649% → 48%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
51.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 21Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+1
51.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 1 yd to the BUF 22Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
52.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Devonte Golden-NelsonSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
52.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
52.3%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Akron Penalty, Defensive holding (Jayvin James) to the BUF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2348% → 47%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
52.2%
Jack Shields run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 24Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+1
52.5%
Jack Shields run for 1 yd to the BUF 25Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
53.1%
pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4253% → 55%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
53.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tahj Bullock for 8 yds to the AKR 40Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+10
54.0%
Charles Kellom run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
50
+10
54.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 10 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
54.8%
Charles Kellom run for 2 yds to the BUF 38 Charles Kellom fumbled, recovered by BUF Daishon FolsomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:3246% → 50%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+44
53.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 44 yds to the AKR 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
50.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 18 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
51.5%
Finley,Ben rush middle , fumble by Finley,Ben recovered by UB McNair,Jalen, McNair,Jalen rush. Ben Finley fumbled, recovered by BUF Jalen McNairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5350% → 54%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
50.3%
Messiah Burch run for 4 yds to the AKR 19Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+7
50.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the AKR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
50.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the AKR 10Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
50.4%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+9
50.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 9 yds to the AKR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.4%
Ogbonna,C.J. rush (Lewis III,Paul), PENALTY UA off-side (Richards,Kabbash). Akron Penalty, off-side (Kabbash Richards) to the AKR 1Similar
Q1 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.4%
Burch,Messiah rush right (Fish,Antavious).Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.5%
J. Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3248% → 48%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
48.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for 7 yds to the AKR 42Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
48.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the AKR 43Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
48.5%
Bullock,Tahj rush right (Crawford,Dion), PENALTY UA illegal shift (Bullock,Tahj). Akron Penalty, illegal shift (Tahj Bullock) to the AKR 43Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+1
47.8%
Tahj Bullock run for 1 yd to the AKR 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 17:5554% → 67%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
46.0%
Lamar Sperling run for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 46Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+10
45.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 10 yds to the AKR 36Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
45.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the AKR 35Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+5
45.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
44.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Tadd Barr for 13 yds to the AKR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
44.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the AKR 14Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
44.3%
pass incomplete to Javien CuffSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+4
44.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the AKR 15Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
44.7%
Upton Bellenfant 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+5
32.9%
Akron Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the AKR 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:4451% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
50.5%
Jordon Simmons run for 9 yds to the AKR 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+15
50.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 15 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
50.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 18 yds to the BUF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
50.5%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Adrian Norton, broken up by Marquis CooperSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
50.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 29 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 14:1444% → 27%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
43.8%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Jarvis Rush for 24 yds to the AKR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
44.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
44.5%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
37.1%
Tahj Bullock pass incomplete to Jake Newell, broken up by Solomon BrownSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
36.7%
Avery Book punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
26.7%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the BUF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:1567% → 71%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
32.6%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+12
32.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 12 yds to the BUF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
32.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 11 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
31.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 16 yds to the AKR 49 for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
30.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the AKR 32Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+20
29.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 20 yds to the AKR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
29.4%
Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the AKR 11Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+9
29.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Evan King for 9 yds to the AKR 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
28.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the AKR 1Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
28.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 2Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.4%
Jake Orlando 2 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5233% → 32%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.7%
pass incomplete to Adrian NortonSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
32.4%
Ben Finley run for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 23Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
31.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Conner Cravaack, broken up by Marquis CooperSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
31.5%
Avery Book punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5572% → 72%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.1%
pass incomplete to Jake OrlandoSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
28.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Evan King for 6 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
27.2%
pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
28.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:5731% → 28%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 9 yds to the AKR 34Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
31.2%
pass incomplete to Jake NewellSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
31.1%
Ben Finley run for 12 yds to the AKR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Ahmarian Granger, broken up by Solomon BrownSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-6
30.8%
Ben Finley sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the AKR 40Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+19
28.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 19 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
30.4%
Ben Finley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
29.3%
pass incomplete to Ahmarian GrangerSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-9
28.5%
Ben Finley sacked by Malin White and Kobe Stewart for a loss of 9 yards to the AKR 48Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
27.7%
Avery Book punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:0178% → 79%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
22.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 20Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
21.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 11 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:4793% → 94%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
7.1%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the AKR 40Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+7
7.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the AKR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
7.0%
Jack Shields run for 2 yds to the AKR 31Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+28
7.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 28 yds to the AKR 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
6.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the AKR 1Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.9%
Ogbonna,C.J. rush right (McCoy,Bryan).Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.0%
Barksdale,Jacqez rush middle (Fish,Antavious).Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Malcom DeWalt IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:4887% → 89%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
13.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
13.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Al-Jay Henderson, broken up by Terence ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+15
13.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 15 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
12.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 5
50
+5
12.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 5 yds to the AKR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
10.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 45 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0413% → 10%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
12.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the AKR 27Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+7
13.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the AKR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
13.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for 3 yds to the AKR 37Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
13.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the AKR 43Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
13.7%
Simmons,Jordon rush middle (Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
9.8%
Simmons,Jordon rush middle (Folsom,Daishon).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:346% → 6%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
6.4%
pass incomplete to Jarvis RushSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
6.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the AKR 5Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+3
6.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 3 yds to the AKR 8Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
5.6%
Avery Book punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:5796% → 99%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
4.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 46Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+24
4.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 24 yds to the AKR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
4.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the AKR 13 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the AKR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.3%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 8 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 15:098% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
7.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Charles Kellom for no gain to the BUF 23 Buffalo Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (5 Yards) to the BUF 28Similar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
1.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 11 yds to the AKR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
1.6%
pass incomplete to Charles KellomSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
1.5%
pass incomplete to Charles KellomSimilar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+26
1.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 26 yds to the AKR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
1.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Ahmarian Granger, broken up by Kobe StewartSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
1.7%
Ben Finley run for 8 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+20
1.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 20 yds to the BUF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
5.2%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Adrian Norton for no gain to the AKR 35Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+28
4.8%
Adrian Norton 28 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Tahj Bullock Pass to Adrian Norton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:073% → 10%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.9%
pass incomplete to Jake NewellSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 15 yds to the AKR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.1%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Adrian Norton, broken up by Jalen McNairSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
3.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 11 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
3.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 17 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
3.6%
Ben Finley run for 4 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+3
3.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
9.6%
B. Finley pass to A. Norton for 25 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1990% → 91%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.3%
Sperling,Lamar rush middle (Kapongo,Nate;Summers,Gage).Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
10.3%
Sperling,Lamar rush middle (Summers,Gage).Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.6%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
9.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1493% → 94%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
6.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 7 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
6.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
5.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:327% → 20%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
7.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 4 yds to the AKR 32Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
7.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the AKR 37Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+10
7.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 10 yds to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
7.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 15 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
8.1%
pass incomplete to Ahmarian GrangerSimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
8.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Paul Davis, broken up by Shaun DolacSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
7.9%
pass incomplete to Adrian NortonSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 10
OPP 38
-15
7.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Tahj Bullock for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the BUF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
5.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for no gain Buffalo Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (5 Yards) to the BUF 28Similar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+28
19.6%
Kyan Mason 28 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Tahj Bullock Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4090% → 92%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 26Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
10.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
10.5%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+45
8.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 41 yds , Jordan Castleberry returns for no gain to the AKR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2194% → 93%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
6.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the AKR 19Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
5.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the AKR 18Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
6.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Darrian LewisSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
6.6%
Upton Bellenfant 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:207% → 5%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
7.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for 10 yds to the AKR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+32
7.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 32 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
10.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Adrian Norton, broken up by Eddie Pleasant IIISimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-12
10.4%
Ben Finley sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 12 yards to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 22
OPP 46
0
7.2%
pass incomplete to Bobby GoldenSimilar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 22
OPP 46
0
4.9%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Bobby Golden, broken up by Eddie Pleasant IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:39
Kyan Mason 28 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Tahj Bullock Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+14.1
FG · Q2 0:00
Akron Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the AKR 19
-11.8
TD · Q4 9:25
B. Finley pass to A. Norton for 25 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com