2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:15 · Josh Smith punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:54: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 3 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — KENT win probability +0.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:55: Jaden Nixon run for 92 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 11:42: Luka Zurak 21 yd FG GOOD — WMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:55: Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:21: Jalen Buckley run for 17 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 5:15KENT 4th & 26 at KENT 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.0%average punt
- Q1 2:43WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.4%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.0%average punt
- Q2 11:42WMU 4th & 3 at KENT 3, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snapGo for it90.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call89.9%−0.693% to makePunt86.9%−3.5average punt
- Q2 10:43KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 8, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q2 7:00KENT 4th & 21 at KENT 14, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%−1.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q2 1:53KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 44, down 38Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00KENT 4th & 9 at WMU 31, down 31Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−<0.132% to convertField goal1.4%54% to makePunt1.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:27WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 48, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 6:50KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 18, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 5:10WMU 4th & 7 at KENT 40, up 31Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%37% to convertField goal99.7%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 2:43KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 38, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 2:43KENT 4th & 1 at WMU 25, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.166% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:46KENT 4th & 4 at WMU 9, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%43% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.189% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 8:54WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:55WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.4%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:55WMU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:21WMU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:54WMU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:10KENT Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:04WMU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:42KENT Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:47WMU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:20KENT Touchdown, down 32 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWMUDrive 1TD12 plays · 83 yds · 6:0690% → 89%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
89.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 7 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
89.9%
BUCKLEY, Jalen rush up the middle for no gain to the WMU26 (BEATTY, Kaden). PENALTY KSU Offsides on DOTSON, Jaylen enforced 5 yards from the WMU26 to the WMU31 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+12
89.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Chris Toudle for 12 yds to the KENT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+14
89.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 14 yds Blake Bosma fumbled, recovered by WMU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 3 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:3911% → 11%
WMUDrive 3TD1 play · 92 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5791% → 90%
KENTDrive 6FUMBLE7 plays · 39 yds · 2:3110% → 10%
Q1 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+20
90.2%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 5 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Donald Willis) to the WMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-2
89.6%
Ky Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 44 Ky Thomas fumbled, recovered by WMU Jacob Wahlberg J. Wahlberg return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7FG7 plays · 53 yds · 3:1891% → 93%
KENTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:598% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD4 plays · 52 yds · 1:4893% → 96%
KENTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:555% → 4%
Q2 8:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
94.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Ky Thomas for 1 yd to the KENT 23Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-9
94.8%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Corey Walker and Aaron Wofford for a loss of 9 yards to the KENT 14Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+5
94.9%
Josh Smith punt for 39 yds , Jordin Parker returns for 5 yds to the KENT 48Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.1%
NIXON, Jaden rush to the left for a gain of 36 yards to the KSU12 (BAKA, Josh). PENALTY WMU Illegal Block in the Back on GIDEON, Jacob declined WMU Holding on HOFER, John enforced 10 yards from the KSU48 to the WMU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:3996% → 98%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+38
96.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 38 yds to the KENT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · -6 yds · 0:472% → 2%
WMUDrive 13TD2 plays · 19 yds · 0:4098% → 99%
KENTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:011% → 1%
WMUDrive 15INT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 6 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
98.9%
ULATOWSKI, Tommy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCCRAY, Chrishon broken up by PAUL, Isaiah at the WMU2. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on PAUL, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the WMU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD1 play · 33 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 18 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18INT9 plays · 43 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WMUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:3199% → 100%
Q3 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
99.6%
Ryan Millmore punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:521% → 0%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
99.5%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Rodney McGraw for a loss of 4 yards to the KENT 10Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+6
99.6%
Josh Smith punt for 31 yds , Jordin Parker returns for 6 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
99.7%
NIXON, Jaden rush up the middle for a gain of 43 yards to the KSU0, TOUCHDOWN WMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:35 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY WMU Holding on GIDEON, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the KSU43 to the WMU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
KENTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:271% → 0%
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+15
99.5%
Western Michigan Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tyson Lee) to the KENT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.5%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Boone Bonnema for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 38Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+41
99.8%
Josh Smith punt for 41 yds , Jordin Parker returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q3 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 10 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24TD6 plays · 61 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 16 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25TD12 plays · 78 yds · 5:55100% → 100%
KENTDrive 26TD21 plays · 75 yds · 7:270% → 0%
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
99.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Stanley King for 13 yds to the KENT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
99.9%
ULATOWSKI, Tommy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KING, Stanley thrown to the WMU30. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on PAUL, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the WMU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
100.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 6 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+4
100.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Conner Muldowney for 4 yds to the WMU 9Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+7
100.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Ardell Banks for 7 yds to the WMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Conner Muldowney for 7 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:55
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q1 4:55
Jaden Nixon run for 92 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
+1.7
FG · Q2 11:42
Luka Zurak 21 yd FG GOOD
+1.7