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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreBUF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:42 · Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:47: Messiah Burch run for 27 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +6.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:21: Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 46 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +8.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:12: Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 65 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +13.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 6:19: Nolan McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +11.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:38: Victor Snow 21 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BUF win probability +8.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 13:18BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%average punt
- Q1 7:16BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 29, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.4%52% to convertField goalTheir call38.2%−0.258% to makePunt37.3%−1.1average punt
- Q1 1:38OHIO 4th & 3 at BUF 6, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.4%46% to convertField goalTheir call62.1%−0.391% to makePunt60.1%−2.3average punt
- Q2 12:42OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt58.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 7:04BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snapGo for it35.7%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%average punt
- Q2 3:23BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 22, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snapGo for it27.6%52% to convertField goalTheir call27.2%−0.472% to makePunt22.6%−5.0average punt
- Q3 12:39OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.4%average punt
- Q3 0:45OHIO 4th & 13 at OHIO 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it92.4%−1.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.2%average punt
- Q4 14:56BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 43, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.1%52% to convertField goal5.1%−2.028% to makePunt5.8%−1.3average punt
- Q4 7:34BUF 4th & 8 at OHIO 46, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.123% to makePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:55OHIO 4th & 5 at BUF 23, up 31Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goal99.9%70% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:00BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 30, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 12:47BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.8%97% to makeGo for two41.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:21OHIO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.3%97% to makeGo for two64.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:12OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.1%97% to makeGo for two73.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.7%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:19OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:38BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick8.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call8.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:15OHIO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4236% → 36%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
64.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Chance Morrow for 16 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2INT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
64.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 7 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3MISSED FG11 plays · 50 yds · 4:2636% → 37%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
63.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 3 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+18
63.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 18 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+3
63.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 3 yds to the OHIO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+1
63.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 1 yd to the OHIO 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4FG11 plays · 65 yds · 5:3864% → 65%
Q1 7:16
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+11
63.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 11 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
64.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 24 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
64.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eamonn Dennis for 4 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
64.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 4 yds to the BUF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5136% → 44%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
64.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Tadd Barr for 10 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+17
64.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Qua Sanders for 17 yds to the OHIO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
62.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Tadd Barr for 9 yds to the OHIO 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-1
62.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 39 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUF C.J. Ogbonna C. Ogbonna return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2158% → 68%
BUFDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1734% → 32%
OHIODrive 8TD2 plays · 73 yds · 0:5267% → 80%
BUFDrive 9FG7 plays · 53 yds · 2:4926% → 28%
OHIODrive 10TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2076% → 85%
BUFDrive 11END OF HALF5 plays · -14 yds · 0:5117% → 16%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
82.7%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 24Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 17
OWN 24
-15
83.4%
Buffalo Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the BUF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
83.6%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 9 yards to the BUF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:2183% → 83%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
82.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 1 yd to the OHIO 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FUMBLE9 plays · 50 yds · 3:1517% → 19%
Q3 12:39
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
82.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 9 yds to the BUF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
82.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 25 yds to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
80.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 6 yds to the OHIO 26Similar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
81.5%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the OHIO 20 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by OHIO Bralen Henderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD6 plays · 80 yds · 3:0584% → 96%
BUFDrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:415% → 15%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
94.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 16 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 3 yds to the OHIO 41Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+8
94.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Chance Morrow for 8 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
93.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 5 yds to the OHIO 28Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
94.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 7 yds to the OHIO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
85.3%
Victor Snow 21 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5396% → 96%
Q3 2:38
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+4
95.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 4 yds to the OHIO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 0:497% → 6%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
93.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 5 yds to the OHIO 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD6 plays · 57 yds · 2:4198% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 29 yds · 4:240% → 0%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for no gain to the BUF 25Similar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.8%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Shay Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 1 yd to the OHIO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21DOWNS10 plays · 33 yds · 5:39100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 1:550% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:12
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 65 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q3 6:19
Nolan McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q3 2:38
Victor Snow 21 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-8.8