2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:52 · John Henderson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:55: Levi Gazarek 2 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Zach Long Kick) — BGSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:42: Jerjuan Newton 64 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TOL win probability +14.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: One-score game).
- FG · Q3 5:33: Zach Long 47 Yd Field Goal — BGSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:58: Zach Long 35 Yd Field Goal — BGSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:11: Rahkeem Smith 19 Yd Run (Zach Long Kick) — BGSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 13:46TOL 4th & 21 at TOL 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snapGo for it56.7%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.9%average punt
- Q1 5:41BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snapGo for it42.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.9%average punt
- Q1 4:48TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.2%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.7%average punt
- Q2 14:06TOL 4th & 11 at BGSU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snapGo for it50.7%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call50.9%42% to makePunt50.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 5:05TOL 4th & 3 at BGSU 41, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.2%52% to convertField goal39.6%−1.632% to makePunt39.7%−1.5average punt
- Q2 1:51BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 24, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snapGo for it59.8%−2.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q2 0:00TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 9, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snapGo for it38.4%54% to convertField goalTheir call37.3%−1.189% to makePunt30.6%−7.8average punt
- Q3 10:52BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 49, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it61.9%−2.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.3%average punt
- Q3 5:33BGSU 4th & 13 at TOL 29, up 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snapGo for it45.9%−3.520% to convertField goalTheir call49.4%58% to makePunt37.9%−11.5average punt
- Q3 2:49TOL 4th & 7 at BGSU 47, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it42.1%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q4 14:58BGSU 4th & 1 at TOL 17, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snapGo for it66.0%71% to convertField goalTheir call61.7%−4.380% to makePunt48.6%−17.4average punt
- Q4 10:03BGSU 4th & 8 at TOL 39, up 8Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.3%34% to convertField goal79.2%−1.136% to makePuntTheir call79.8%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:43TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 8, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it15.9%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q4 4:34TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 32, down 15Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.8%−0.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%average punt
- Q4 3:15BGSU 4th & 2 at TOL 35, up 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.8%57% to convertField goal96.3%−0.545% to makePunt95.9%−0.9average punt
- Q4 1:11BGSU 4th & 5 at TOL 19, up 15Close callWent for it · 97.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%−0.140% to convertField goal97.6%77% to makePunt96.2%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:06BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.8%97% to makeGo for two43.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:57TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.3%97% to makeGo for two57.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:40BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.7%97% to makeGo for two46.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:55BGSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.0%97% to makeGo for two56.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:42TOL Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick53.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call53.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:11BGSU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two94.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTOLDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0555% → 55%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
54.9%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Avi McGary and Ali Saad for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 17Similar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
54.9%
(13:59) DURAN, Emilio punt 37 yards to the BGSU44 out of bounds, clock 13:54. PENALTY Before the snap, TOLEDO Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TOLEDO19 to the TOLEDO14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2TD5 plays · 45 yds · 2:4245% → 47%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
54.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 6 yds to the TOL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1154% → 57%
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
53.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
53.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Sevaughn Clark for 2 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
53.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 34 yds to the BGSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1445% → 44%
Q1 5:41
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+1
55.6%
John Henderson punt for 40 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 1 yd to the TOL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4856% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD6 plays · 54 yds · 1:5545% → 51%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
54.6%
Bowling Green Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
54.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Trey Johnson for 7 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
54.3%
(03:13) QB Keeper BAZELAK, Connor rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the TOLEDO33, End of Play, clock 03:09. PENALTY Before the snap, TOLEDO Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the TOLEDO34 to the TOLEDO29 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
53.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 20 yds to the TOL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
49.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2851% → 53%
Q1 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
50.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 8 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
50.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 3 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+22
50.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 22 yds to the BGSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
50.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for no gain to the BGSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8TD9 plays · 79 yds · 5:0447% → 59%
TOLDrive 9TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5542% → 40%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
41.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 5 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
41.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 9 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+6
40.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 6 yds to the BGSU 41Similar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
40.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 10 yds to the BGSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+16
38.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 16 yds to the BGSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 1:0264% → 65%
TOLDrive 11INT TD3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4234% → 37%
Q2 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+10
33.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 10 yds to the BGSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FG10 plays · 41 yds · 0:5137% → 42%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
50
+22
36.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 22 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 15
OPP 33
-10
37.8%
(00:46) GLEASON, Tucker pass to the right complete for 21 yards to NEWTON, Jerjuan caught at the BGSU21 and advanced to the BGSU12 (OLADOKUN, Jordan), clock 00:38. PENALTY TOLEDO Holding enforced 10 yards from the BGSU33 to the BGSU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+26
36.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 26 yds to the BGSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
38.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 3 yds to the BGSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:5764% → 64%
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
35.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-7
33.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by D'Andre Ragin for a loss of 7 yards to the BGSU 49Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
36.0%
John Henderson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD5 plays · 93 yds · 2:0436% → 53%
BGSUDrive 15FG8 plays · 44 yds · 3:0050% → 59%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+34
49.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 34 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+5
46.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Rahkeem Smith for 5 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
44.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+2
47.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jacob Harris for 2 yds to the TOL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4142% → 40%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
42.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 10 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
41.6%
(04:42) GLEASON, Tucker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TORRES, Anthony thrown to the BGSU42, clock 04:35. PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference on BROWN, CJ enforced 15 yards to the TOLEDO50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-1
45.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 48Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+1
43.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 1 yd to the BGSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FG8 plays · 64 yds · 2:3962% → 75%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
32.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 14 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
31.9%
(00:55) BAZELAK, Connor pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON JR., Malcolm thrown to the TOLEDO20, clock 00:50. PENALTY TOLEDO Pass Interference on SMITH, Avery enforced 15 yards to the TOLEDO26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+14
31.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 14 yds to the TOL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18INT4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3128% → 29%
BGSUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0980% → 81%
TOLDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1423% → 19%
BGSUDrive 21TD6 plays · 60 yds · 3:1984% → 98%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
16.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 18 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:335% → 4%
Q4 4:58
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-3
5.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23DOWNS13 plays · 26 yds · 3:1298% → 99%
Q4 3:15
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+11
1.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 11 yds to the TOL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24END OF GAME6 plays · 36 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
0.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 8 yds to the TOL 25Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+7
1.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 7 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
0.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 16 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
0.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 5 yds to the BGSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:42
Jerjuan Newton 64 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+14.8
TD · Q2 8:55
Levi Gazarek 2 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Zach Long Kick)
-7.8
FG · Q4 14:58
Zach Long 35 Yd Field Goal
-6.1