2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:03 · Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Markus Allen, broken up by Paul Lewis III
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:54: Tahj Bullock 3 Yd Run (Tahj Bullock Pass to Liam Reardon for Two-Point Conversion) — AKR win probability +6.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:24: Tahj Bullock pass complete to Liam Reardon for no gain to the AKR 35 — AKR win probability +6.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:09: Garrison Smith 34 Yd Field Goal — EMU win probability +0.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:45: T. Bullock run for 15 yds for a TD (G. Smith KICK) — AKR win probability +2.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:15: Jere Getzinger 2 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Cole Snyder Pass to Max Reese for Two-Point Conversion) — AKR win probability +0.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 9:08EMU 4th & 16 at AKR 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snapGo for it53.3%−0.216% to convertField goalTheir call53.5%42% to makePunt53.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:23AKR 4th & 9 at EMU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.6%−0.132% to convertField goal46.5%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call46.7%average punt
- Q1 6:29EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snapGo for it52.0%−0.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.5%average punt
- Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 27, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snapGo for it55.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q2 14:09AKR 4th & 8 at EMU 17, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snapGo for it62.7%−0.532% to convertField goalTheir call63.3%80% to makePunt59.7%−3.6average punt
- Q2 13:14EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 27, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it31.8%−1.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q2 6:17EMU 4th & 1 at AKR 29, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.6%71% to convertField goal24.3%−3.358% to makePunt17.6%−10.0average punt
- Q2 1:51EMU 4th & 5 at AKR 45, down 19Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snapGo for it20.9%41% to convertField goal19.2%−1.625% to makePuntTheir call20.2%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:41AKR 4th & 3 at EMU 37, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.8%53% to convertField goal87.6%−2.140% to makePunt87.4%−2.4average punt
- Q3 9:56EMU 4th & 3 at AKR 42, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.3%52% to convertField goal12.4%−2.930% to makePunt13.4%−1.9average punt
- Q3 4:25AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 28, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%average punt
- Q4 13:11AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 47, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.2%−1.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q4 7:41EMU 4th & 1 at AKR 1, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.5%59% to convertField goal3.1%−1.394% to makePunt0.1%−4.4average punt
- Q4 0:54AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 42, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q4 0:27EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 8, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%27% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.7%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 2:54AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick51.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call51.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1MISSED FG15 plays · 39 yds · 5:4856% → 54%
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
44.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for no gain to the EMU 29Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
44.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 10 yds to the EMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+11
44.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 11 yds to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
44.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 17 yds to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
44.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for no gain to the AKR 30 Eastern Michigan Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Markus Allen) to the AKR 45Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 23
OPP 43
0
45.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Jere Getzinger, broken up by Paul Lewis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4146% → 46%
Q1 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
46.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 15 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
46.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 1 yd to the EMU 44Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
46.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Tahj Bullock, broken up by Bryce LlewellynSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4654% → 53%
Q1 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
46.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Markus Allen, broken up by Devonte Golden-NelsonSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
46.8%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for no gain , Jordan Castleberry returns for no gain to the EMU 3 Eastern Michigan Penalty, kick catching interference (Nick Devereaux) to the EMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD8 plays · 36 yds · 1:3054% → 61%
Q1 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.6%
Tahj Bullock 3 Yd Run (Tahj Bullock Pass to Liam Reardon for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
53.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 8 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
54.5%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Liam Reardon for no gain to the AKR 35Similar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
61.3%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Liam Reardon for no gain to the AKR 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6FG6 plays · 45 yds · 15:5144% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
44.0%
Kellom,Charles rush (McNulty,Dramarian), PENALTY AKR illegal formation 5 yards to the EMU14. Akron Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the EMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3434% → 33%
Q2 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr., broken up by Paul Lewis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8INT5 plays · 14 yds · 2:3470% → 73%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
69.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for no gain to the AKR 40 Akron Penalty, Offensive holding (Ronald Hull) to the AKR 40Similar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+9
68.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 9 yds to the AKR 39Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
71.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 10 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9DOWNS11 plays · 48 yds · 3:5529% → 28%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
70.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 12 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Oran Singleton, broken up by Darrian LewisSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
71.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 9 yds to the EMU 44Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
72.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 7 yds to the AKR 48Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+10
70.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 10 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
71.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr., broken up by Malcom DeWalt IVSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
71.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 8 yds to the AKR 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10TD7 plays · 71 yds · 3:2577% → 83%
EMUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4823% → 22%
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2684% → 87%
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
84.8%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, off-side (Sterling Miles) to the AKR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-11
85.0%
Charles Kellom run for 4 yds to the AKR 37 Akron Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jake Newell) to the AKR 22Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 21
OWN 22
+23
86.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 23 yds to the AKR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1787% → 89%
EMUDrive 14TD14 plays · 65 yds · 5:2116% → 12%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
84.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to for 16 yds to the AKR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+7
85.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for 7 yds to the AKR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+14
86.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr., broken up by Devonte Golden-Nelson for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devonte Golden-Nelson) to the AKR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
87.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for no gain to the EMU 35Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.4%
Jere Getzinger 2 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Cole Snyder Pass to Max Reese for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4593% → 93%
EMUDrive 16TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:409% → 8%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
90.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for no gain to the EMU 42 Eastern Michigan Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Carson Lee) to the EMU 42Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+11
91.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 11 yds to the AKR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
91.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 12 yds to the AKR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
91.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 5 yds to the AKR 29Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+13
90.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 13 yds to the AKR 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+18
92.3%
Jere Getzinger 18 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0996% → 97%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
95.8%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Bobby Golden for 16 yds to the EMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18TD13 plays · 99 yds · 5:305% → 4%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
95.2%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, false start (Josh Anderson) to the EMU 1Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+79
95.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 79 yds to the AKR 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Markus Allen, broken up by Elijah Reed for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (CJ Nunnally IV) to the AKR 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.2%
Jackson-Anderson,Elijah rush middle (Spriggs,Melvin;Brockington,Zy).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3898% → 99%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 6 yds to the AKR 31Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
98.1%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Bobby Golden for a 1ST down Eastern Michigan Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dramarian McNulty) to the AKR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 7 yds to the AKR 42Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
98.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 12 yds to the EMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · 29 yds · 1:442% → 2%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
98.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 5 yds to the EMU 20Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+16
98.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for 16 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
98.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 8 yds to the EMU 44Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Markus Allen, broken up by Elijah ReedSimilar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+40
98.2%
Elijah Jackson-Anderson run for 40 yds to the AKR 16 Elijah Jackson-Anderson fumbled, recovered by AKR Paul Lewis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q4 0:54
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
99.2%
Avery Book punt for 48 yds , Oran Singleton returns for no gain to the EMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22END OF GAME9 plays · 59 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
98.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Markus Allen, broken up by Malcom DeWalt IVSimilar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 10
OWN 8
+27
98.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Joey Mattord for 27 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
98.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for 12 yds to the EMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 6 yds to the AKR 47Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
98.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 6 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
98.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 8 yds to the AKR 33Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
97.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Markus Allen, broken up by Paul Lewis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:24
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Liam Reardon for no gain to the AKR 35
+6.9
TD · Q1 2:54
Tahj Bullock 3 Yd Run (Tahj Bullock Pass to Liam Reardon for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.8
TD · Q2 2:45
T. Bullock run for 15 yds for a TD (G. Smith KICK)
+2.4