2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:31 · Josh Smith punt for 49 yds , Justin Pegues returns for 23 yds to the KENT 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 3:15: Will Hryszko 37 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +0.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:21: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 50 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK) — BGSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:46: Will Hryszko 30 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +0.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:23: Lucian Anderson III run for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK) — BGSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:32: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK) — BGSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
- Q1 13:14BGSU 4th & 10 at KENT 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.8%average punt
- Q1 10:06KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q1 5:29BGSU 4th & 12 at KENT 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.220% to convertField goalTheir call90.5%84% to makePunt89.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 3:15KENT 4th & 10 at BGSU 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call9.7%77% to makePunt8.9%−0.9average punt
- Q2 14:53KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q2 11:14BGSU 4th & 3 at KENT 7, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snapGo for it90.1%46% to convertField goalTheir call89.8%−0.291% to makePunt88.1%−2.0average punt
- Q2 8:21KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 46, down 10Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:21KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 46, down 10Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:42BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 19, up 10Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it89.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 2:46KENT 4th & 8 at BGSU 12, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call10.1%86% to makePunt7.6%−2.5average punt
- Q3 13:31KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q3 13:31KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q3 11:32BGSU 4th & 4 at KENT 33, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.9%48% to convertField goal92.5%−0.449% to makePunt92.1%−0.8average punt
- Q3 9:22KENT 4th & 1 at BGSU 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.1%−1.0average punt
- Q3 7:00KENT 4th & 19 at KENT 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.2%−1.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q4 13:13BGSU 4th & 15 at KENT 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snapGo for it94.3%−1.017% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%56% to makePunt94.5%−0.8average punt
- Q4 4:01BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 38, up 21Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%average punt
- Q4 3:33KENT 4th & 10 at BGSU 32, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.330% to convertField goal0.8%51% to makePunt0.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 3:33KENT 4th & 10 at BGSU 32, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.330% to convertField goal0.8%51% to makePunt0.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:54BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 35, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 1:21BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:23BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:32BGSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3493% → 93%
Q1 13:14
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
92.9%
John Henderson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 3:027% → 8%
BGSUDrive 3FG9 plays · 84 yds · 4:2792% → 91%
KENTDrive 4FG9 plays · 65 yds · 2:099% → 10%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
91.1%
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game (Davis,Chace) 5 yards from KentSt16 to KentSt21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4890% → 91%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
50
+50
91.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 50 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:209% → 9%
BGSUDrive 7FG8 plays · 60 yds · 3:2891% → 90%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Justin Pegues for 2 yds to the BGSU 35Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+13
90.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 13 yds to the BGSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
91.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 16 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
91.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 22 yds to the KENT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4610% → 10%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
89.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 3 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
90.0%
Josh Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Justin Pegues at the BGSU 10Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
90.0%
Josh Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Justin Pegues at the BGSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3589% → 89%
Q2 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
89.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 9 yds to the BGSU 19Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
89.1%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the BGSU 19 Jaison Patterson fumbled, recovered by KENT Elijah BoydSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
88.8%
John Henderson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10FG11 plays · 51 yds · 3:3811% → 13%
BGSUDrive 11TD14 plays · 73 yds · 2:1088% → 93%
Q2 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+19
87.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 19 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
88.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 4 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
88.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Justin Pegues for 4 yds to the KENT 45Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
88.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Justin Pegues for 4 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
89.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 12 yds to the KENT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+15
89.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jared Merk for 15 yds to the KENT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
89.9%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Bazelak,Connor pass incomplete short right to Davis,Chace thrown to KentSt00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KentSt Pass Interference (Williams,Canaan) 15 yards from KentSt17 to KentSt02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
92.9%
PENALTY BGSU False Start (Porter,Jordan) 5 yards from KentSt03 to KentSt08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:147% → 7%
Q3 14:07
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+2
93.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 2 yds to the KENT 13Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+23
93.0%
Josh Smith punt for 49 yds , Justin Pegues returns for 23 yds to the KENT 39Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+23
93.0%
Josh Smith punt for 49 yds , Justin Pegues returns for 23 yds to the KENT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14DOWNS4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4994% → 93%
KENTDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 3 yds · 4:258% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16MISSED FG18 plays · 64 yds · 8:3793% → 97%
Q3 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-5
92.4%
PENALTY BGSU False Start (Sharp,Winn) 5 yards from BGSU10 to BGSU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+13
92.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 13 yds to the BGSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+13
93.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 13 yds to the BGSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
96.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 14 yds to the KENT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
97.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 12 yds to the KENT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-10
97.0%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Stewart,Terion rush left for 4 yards gain to the KentSt15 (Hamdan,Zaid), out of bounds PENALTY BGSU Holding (Pabst,Nate) 10 yards from KentSt19 to KentSt29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+7
97.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 7 yds to the KENT 22Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-8
97.2%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Kameron Olds for a loss of 8 yards to the KENT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17INT4 plays · 17 yds · 0:417% → 7%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
93.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD12 plays · 63 yds · 5:2697% → 100%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
97.4%
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
97.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Justin Pegues for 7 yds to the KENT 41Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
98.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 22 yds to the KENT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
98.3%
PENALTY KentSt Offside (Dial,Garrett) 5 yards from KentSt10 to KentSt05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19INT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:231% → 1%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 16 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · -9 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 0:231% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 1:54
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
99.7%
John Henderson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:131% → 1%
BGSUDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · -6 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
99.8%
(01:35) Kneel down by Bowling Green at KentSt35 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-2
99.8%
(00:49) Kneel down by Bowling Green at KentSt37 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 37
-2
99.8%
(00:28) Kneel down by Bowling Green at KentSt39 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:23
Lucian Anderson III run for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+3
TD · Q1 1:21
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 50 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q4 6:32
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Zach Long KICK)
+1.3