Try the model
OHIO

Ohio 27 at Central Michigan 25

CMU
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+38.5CMU 47.2%Marion Lukes run for 28 yds for a TD(Tristan Mattson KICK)AWAY 27 - HOME 25 · Q4 1:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:52 · Marion Lukes run for 28 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Pregame prior−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:03: Parker Navarro run for 8 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:11: Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 5 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +12.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:01: Duncan Brune run for 4 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:19: Marion Lukes 3 Yd Run (Tyler Jefferson Pass to Marion Lukes for Two-Point Conversion) — CMU win probability +15.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:52: Marion Lukes run for 28 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +38.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:53OHIO 4th & 6 at CMU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:20CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 35, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:59OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:59OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:18CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:38CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:46CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:56OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 21, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:27OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 39, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:57CMU 4th & 12 at OHIO 20, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−6.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:13OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:13OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:59CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:17OHIO 4th & 4 at CMU 28, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%−1.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−9.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:44CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:52CMU 4th & 1 at OHIO 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−2.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:03OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:11OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:01OHIO Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:19CMU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:52CMU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:5453% → 53%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
47.2%
Parker Navarro run for 53 yds to the CMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
47.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 25Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+4
47.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the CMU 21Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-5
47.4%
PENALTY Ohio Delay Of Game (Navarro,Parker) 5 yards from CMU21 to CMU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+8
47.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 8 yds to the CMU 18Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
47.5%
Gianni Spetic 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
47.5%
PENALTY CMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sanchez III,Fernando) 15 yards from Ohio35 to Ohio50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1148% → 48%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.6%
Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
47.9%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
47.5%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMU 32Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
47.5%
David Chapeau punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 18Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
47.5%
David Chapeau punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3352% → 53%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
47.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 9 yds to the OHIO 18Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-5
47.8%
(10:08) PENALTY Ohio False Start (Williams,Mason) 5 yards from Ohio18 to Ohio13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
47.9%
PENALTY CMU Offside (Odjugo,Pius) 5 yards from Ohio13 to Ohio18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+2
47.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the OHIO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
47.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the OHIO 19Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+19
48.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 19 yds to the OHIO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
47.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 18 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.2%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+28
47.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for 28 yds to the CMU 16 Anthony Tyus III fumbled, recovered by CMU Elijah RikardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:3148% → 48%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
47.9%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
47.8%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 9 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
47.7%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
47.8%
Joe Labas pass complete to B.J. Harris for 3 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
47.9%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+4
47.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for 4 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+2
47.5%
David Chapeau punt for 47 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 2 yds to the OHIO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:1352% → 51%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
48.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 10 yds to the OHIO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
48.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 3 yds to the OHIO 33Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
47.5%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
48.4%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
48.9%
Jack Wilson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
48.9%
Jack Wilson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:3450% → 48%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
49.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 12 yds to the OHIO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
50.0%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the OHIO 49Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
49.2%
B.J. Harris run for no gain to the OHIO 49Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-5
48.9%
(00:41) PENALTY CMU False Start (Heinzen,Davis) 5 yards from Ohio49 to CMU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 17
OWN 46
0
48.2%
Joe Labas run for no gain to the CMU 46Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
47.9%
David Chapeau punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1552% → 61%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the OHIO 24Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
48.1%
Parker Navarro sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 23Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+28
48.7%
Parker Navarro run for 13 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Fernando Sanchez III) to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
46.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 1 yd to the CMU 48Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+18
46.4%
Parker Navarro run for 18 yds to the CMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
45.8%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
45.8%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+22
46.6%
Parker Navarro run for 22 yds to the CMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.7%
Parker Navarro run for 8 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · -9 yds · 3:2039% → 36%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.4%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
39.7%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
38.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for 4 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Dominic Serapiglia III) to the CMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
37.9%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Labas,Joe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU26 (Taylor,Shay) PENALTY CMU Holding (Heinzen,Davis) 10 yards from CMU22 to CMU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
37.7%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+4
36.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Myles Bailey for 4 yds to the CMU 16Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
36.4%
David Chapeau punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OHIO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2364% → 78%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
35.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 3 yds to the OHIO 42Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+8
36.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 5
50
+23
35.2%
Parker Navarro run for 23 yds to the CMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
34.4%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
34.4%
Duncan Brune run for 2 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+20
34.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 20 yds to the CMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 5 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1127% → 26%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.0%
Tyler Jefferson run for 3 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
26.5%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 29Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
25.9%
Tyler Jefferson run for 4 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
25.7%
David Chapeau punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 0:3980% → 90%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+56
19.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 56 yds to the CMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
18.0%
Duncan Brune run for 2 yds to the CMU 12Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
17.7%
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the CMU 8Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+1
17.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 1 yd to the CMU 7Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+3
18.1%
(01:23) Spetic,Gianni field goal attempt from 24 yards NO GOOD blocked by Kwiatkowski,Jordan (H: Wilson,Jack, LS: Garfield,Colby), clock 01:07 recovered by CMU Jackson,Jaion at CMU06 Jackson,Jaion return 22 yards to the CMU28 (Shelby,Jarian; Weatherspoon,Davion), out of bounds PENALTY CMU Illegal Formation (Turner-Kinsler,Jaree) 3 yards from CMU07 to CMU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
10.4%
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5518% → 19%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
18.0%
Marion Lukes run for 11 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
18.6%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Jefferson,Tyler rush right for 5 yards gain to the CMU41 (Leake,Blake) PENALTY CMU Holding (Bailey,Vashon) 10 yards from CMU36 to CMU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+3
18.6%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 29
-11
18.6%
Tyler Jefferson sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 11 yards to the CMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0116% → 15%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
16.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
15.9%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
15.7%
Tyler Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
15.3%
David Chapeau punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4589% → 89%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
11.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the OHIO 21Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
10.7%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
11.1%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+3
11.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMU 33 , Donte Kent returns for 3 yds to the CMU 24 Central Michigan Penalty, Illegal Block (Xavier White) to the CMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3212% → 24%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
12.3%
B.J. Harris run for 12 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
12.0%
B.J. Harris run for 5 yds to the OHIO 47Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-5
12.5%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Bailey,Vashon) 5 yards from Ohio47 to CMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
11.7%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 49Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
10.8%
Tyler Jefferson run for 10 yds to the OHIO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
9.8%
Marion Lukes run for 14 yds to the OHIO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
9.6%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 20 yds to the OHIO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
9.5%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the OHIO 3Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.6%
Marion Lukes 3 Yd Run (Tyler Jefferson Pass to Marion Lukes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:4683% → 84%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
17.5%
Parker Navarro run for 8 yds to the OHIO 38Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
16.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the OHIO 36Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-5
16.4%
(06:54) PENALTY Ohio False Start (Hendricks,Chase) 5 yards from Ohio36 to Ohio31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+8
16.9%
Parker Navarro run for 8 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
15.7%
Jack Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donte Kent at the CMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:2518% → 20%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
18.2%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 26Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
17.4%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Evan Boyd for 6 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
19.0%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the OHIO 43Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-5
19.5%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Bailey,Vashon) 5 yards from Ohio43 to Ohio48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+30
18.8%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 30 yds to the OHIO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
19.6%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the OHIO 17Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
19.2%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Marion Lukes for 6 yds to the OHIO 11Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
18.4%
Tyler Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OHIO 10Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 10
-10
17.3%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Jefferson,Tyler rush left for 5 yards gain to the Ohio05 (Walker,DJ) PENALTY CMU Holding (Heinzen,Davis) 10 yards from Ohio10 to Ohio20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+37
19.5%
Tristan Mattson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:3286% → 73%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
13.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the OHIO 22Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-2
13.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 20Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+11
11.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 11 yds to the OHIO 31Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 3
OWN 31
-5
11.6%
(12:40) Wilson,Jack punt 51 yards to the CMU18 Kent,Donte return 2 yards to the CMU20 (Fries,Jack) PENALTY Ohio Illegal Formation (McCormick,Nolan) 5 yards from Ohio31 to Ohio26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+70
27.5%
Jack Wilson punt for 44 yds , Donte Kent returns for 70 yds for a TD Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Nathan VanTimmeren) to the OHIO 0Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+70
27.5%
Jack Wilson punt for 44 yds , Donte Kent returns for 70 yds Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Nathan VanTimmeren) to the CMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0629% → 26%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.1%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
29.3%
Tyler Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+48
27.1%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 48 yds to the OHIO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
25.8%
David Chapeau punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3776% → 80%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
23.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for 15 yds to the OHIO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-19
20.0%
Parker Navarro sacked by Dakota Cochran for a loss of 19 yards to the OHIO 15 Parker Navarro fumbled, recovered by CMU Dakota Cochran , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0834% → 41%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
33.9%
Marion Lukes run for 9 yds to the OHIO 6Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
34.2%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the OHIO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.6%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:3475% → 87%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.3%
Parker Navarro run for 6 yds to the OHIO 31Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
24.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 11 yds to the OHIO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
20.3%
Parker Navarro run for 24 yds to the CMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
16.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the CMU 34Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
16.2%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+6
17.0%
Parker Navarro run for 6 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
12.8%
Gianni Spetic 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:0514% → 47%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
14.0%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Chris Parker for 12 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
14.2%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Marion Lukes for 3 yds to the CMU 40Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
13.7%
Tyler Jefferson run for no gain to the CMU 40Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
12.4%
Tyler Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+9
11.8%
Tyler Jefferson run for 9 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
13.3%
Tyler Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
12.9%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Marion Lukes for 14 yds to the OHIO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
12.4%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Bailey,Vashon) 5 yards from Ohio37 to Ohio42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+5
9.2%
Tyler Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OHIO 37Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
9.7%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 4 yds to the OHIO 33Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
9.4%
Tyler Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OHIO 28Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+28
47.2%
Marion Lukes run for 28 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 24 yds · 1:4781% → 95%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
19.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the OHIO 32Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+13
20.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 13 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
16.4%
Parker Navarro run for 7 yds to the CMU 48Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+11
14.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 11 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
12.3%
P. Navarro takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-3
5.5%
P. Navarro takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:52
Marion Lukes run for 28 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
+38.5
TD · Q3 8:19
Marion Lukes 3 Yd Run (Tyler Jefferson Pass to Marion Lukes for Two-Point Conversion)
+15.7
TD · Q2 3:11
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 5 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com