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TOL

Toledo 15 at Buffalo 30

BUF
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:03 · Al-Jay Henderson run for 29 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:55: Victor Snow 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick) — BUF win probability +5.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:19: C.J. Ogbonna 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick) — BUF win probability +20.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:40: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 2 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +24.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:29: John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +16.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:52: C.J. Ogbonna 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BUF win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:38TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:41BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:16TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:07TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:45BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:48TOL 4th & 1 at BUF 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−1.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:33TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:47BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:47TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:35BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:05TOL 4th & 22 at BUF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−3.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−2.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:28TOL 4th & 1 at BUF 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−3.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:05BUF 4th & 22 at BUF 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−4.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:13BUF 4th & 6 at TOL 15, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:13TOL 4th & 1 at BUF 41, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:37BUF 4th & 9 at TOL 46, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:37TOL 4th & 4 at BUF 42, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:03TOL 4th & 4 at BUF 7, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:55BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:40BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:29TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:52BUF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2280% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
19.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
19.7%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-4
19.7%
Connor Walendzak run for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 35 Connor Walendzak fumbled, recovered by TOL Connor WalendzakSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+7
19.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 7 yds to the TOL 42 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Carter FoutySimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
20.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5721% → 22%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
20.9%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
20.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+6
20.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 6 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
20.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete, broken up by D'Andre RaginSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
20.9%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush left (Bolden,Daniel;Alexander,Darius).Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
20.8%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
21.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2578% → 77%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
21.7%
Walendzak,Connor rush left (Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
21.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for no gain to the TOL 33Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
21.9%
pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
22.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 4:2123% → 29%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+30
22.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 30 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
23.1%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
23.1%
Messiah Burch run for 11 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
23.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 23 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
23.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the TOL 10Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
23.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the TOL 8Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+5
23.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the TOL 2 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUF Jake Orlando for a 1ST down Jake Orlando run for 1 yd to the TOL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.9%
Victor Snow 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4872% → 70%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 11 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
27.6%
Sevaughn Clark run for 2 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
27.5%
pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-4
27.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Sevaughn Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 34Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+6
30.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 27 , Victor Snow returns for 6 yds to the BUF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:2230% → 31%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
29.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 13 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.4%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush middle (Barrow,Jackson;Carter,Esean).Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-3
30.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 37Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+5
29.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Chance Morrow for 5 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
31.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 64 yds · 20:1280% → 64%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+23
19.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Sevaughn Clark for 23 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
31.6%
Clark,Sevaughn rush left (Crawford,Dion;Murdock,Red).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
31.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Sevaughn Clark for 4 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
31.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
31.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+8
31.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 8 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
30.7%
pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
31.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
30.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
30.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
29.9%
Walendzak,Connor rush middle (Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
30.6%
Walendzak,Connor rush left (Colclough,Antonio;Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
36.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton, broken up by Solomon BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3238% → 38%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
38.1%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
37.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-3
37.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 29Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
38.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4361% → 58%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
39.2%
Sevaughn Clark run for 1 yd to the TOL 13Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
39.4%
pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
40.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Anthony Torres, broken up by SaVeon BrownSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
42.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4643% → 41%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
43.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 45Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
42.0%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
41.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to JJ Jenkins, broken up by Avery SmithSimilar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
40.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0059% → 56%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
41.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+16
41.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 16 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
40.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 10 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.6%
pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
40.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 2 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
40.1%
pass incomplete to Sevaughn ClarkSimilar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+43
43.7%
punt for 34 yds Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Marquis Cooper) to the BUF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:1244% → 49%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
44.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 11Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-5
44.1%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Javien Cuff) to the BUF 6Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+7
43.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+9
43.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 9 yds to the BUF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
44.4%
pass incomplete to Messiah BurchSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
44.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 5 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+11
46.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 11 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
48.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
49.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
48.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
48.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:3052% → 51%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+48
47.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 48 yds to the BUF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
42.5%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-7
42.6%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Dion Crawford and Kobe Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 40Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
47.1%
pass incomplete to Sevaughn ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 17
OPP 40
-5
48.5%
Toledo Penalty, delay of game (Jacquez Stuart) to the BUF 45Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
49.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.3%
C.J. Ogbonna 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:2050% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
49.8%
Messiah Burch run for 2 yds to the BUF 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+12
49.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 12 yds to the BUF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
50.2%
pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+17
49.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
52.3%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 4 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
52.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 6 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
52.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 37 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Defensive holding (Nasir Bowers) to the TOL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
52.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
52.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the TOL 2Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 2 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:1231% → 30%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 24Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+19
69.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 19 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
67.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, roughing passer (Red Murdock) to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
66.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete, broken up by C.J. BazileSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
66.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 6 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
66.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
70.3%
Clark,Sevaughn rush middle (Murdock,Red;Souza,Tristan).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:2376% → 79%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
75.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 34Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+10
75.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
76.5%
Messiah Burch run for 13 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
76.5%
Shelton,Terrance rush middle (Barrow,Jackson;Carter,Esean).Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
76.4%
Burch,Messiah rush (Poynter,Martez), PENALTY BUF holding (Tabansi,Henry) 10 yards to the TOL33. Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Henry Tabansi) to the BUF 47Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 20
OWN 47
-10
76.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete, broken up by Jackson Barrow Buffalo Penalty, intentional grounding (C.J. Ogbonna) to the BUF 37Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 30
OWN 37
+8
74.7%
Messiah Burch run for 8 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 22
OWN 45
0
79.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18Uncategorized
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4223% → 21%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
77.2%
Sevaughn Clark run for 2 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
77.3%
pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 16
-10
79.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 10 yards to the TOL 2 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by BUF Antonio Colclough , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:427% → 23%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
93.3%
John Alan Richter run for 7 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+10
93.0%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 10 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+41
93.0%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 41 yds to the BUF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
76.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:3587% → 99%
Q3 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+14
87.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 14 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
87.2%
Buffalo Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BUF 46Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+12
86.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 12 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
87.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to JJ Jenkins, broken up by Avery SmithSimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+6
86.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
87.3%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
89.9%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 17 yds to the TOL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.9%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 1 yd to the TOL 1Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
C.J. Ogbonna 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
99.2%
Ethan Duane pass incomplete to Andrew SchnackenbergSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:1899% → 100%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush middle (Poynter,Martez).Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+17
99.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 17 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.2%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush middle (Poynter,Martez).Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
99.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 20Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+10
99.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds to the TOL 10Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 1
OPP 10
-5
99.1%
Buffalo Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TOL 15Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
99.5%
Upton Bellenfant 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:050% → 0%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Sevaughn Clark for 3 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 6 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Eric Holley III for 2 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Anthony Torres for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
50
0
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
50
+8
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 8 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
99.7%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+7
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 7 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Anthony Torres, broken up by Jalen McNairSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III, broken up by Solomon BrownSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
99.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the BUF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Jerjuan Newton 23 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (John Alan Richter Pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Anthony Torres for no gain to the TOL 3 Buffalo Penalty, off-side (Antonio Colclough) to the TOL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 48Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
99.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 49Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+3
99.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 9
OPP 46
+11
99.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 11 yds to the TOL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Richter,John Alan rush right (Evans,Cornell).Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Connor Walendzak, broken up by Solomon BrownSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+39
99.9%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 39 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 2 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
John Alan Richter run for 4 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
99.9%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+29
99.9%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 29 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.8%
John Alan Richter pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the BUF 7Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 4
OPP 7
-4
99.9%
John Alan Richter sacked by Antonio Colclough for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+29
99.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 29 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:40
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 2 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
+24
TD · Q3 4:19
C.J. Ogbonna 2 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)
+20.3
TD · Q3 2:29
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com