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BALL

Ball State 37 at Kent State 35

KENT
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:51 · Kadin Semonza punt for 15 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Home team on offense−4.5Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.2Pregame prior−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:28: Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 13 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +14.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:47: Ky Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +15.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:19: Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 63 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +16.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:28: Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 18 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +39.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:30: Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 57 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +22.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:40KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:38BALL 4th & 15 at KENT 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:46KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.9%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:51BALL 4th & 2 at KENT 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:57BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.2%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:26BALL 4th & 7 at KENT 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:52KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 8, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:35BALL 4th & 1 at KENT 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−2.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:00KENT 4th & 10 at BALL 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:42BALL 4th & 4 at KENT 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:04BALL 4th & 1 at KENT 16, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−2.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−11.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:19BALL 4th & 9 at midfield, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:45KENT 4th & 5 at BALL 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:37BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 44, up 13
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:19BALL 4th & 17 at KENT 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−3.8
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−9.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:39KENT 4th & 27 at BALL 45, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    25% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:14BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54KENT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:49BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:28BALL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:47KENT Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:19KENT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:28KENT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:13BALL Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:30KENT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0843% → 44%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.2%
Ayden Harris run for 2 yds to the KENT 27Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
43.3%
Ayden Harris run for 2 yds to the KENT 29Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
43.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass intercepted Willizhuan Yates return for no gain to the KENT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:2357% → 57%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
43.3%
Cam Pickett run for 19 yds to the KENT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
43.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the KENT 14Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
43.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the KENT 7Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
43.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 6 yds to the KENT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2643% → 43%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
42.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
42.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
42.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
42.6%
Josh Smith punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:5257% → 58%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
42.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 5 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
42.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 3 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
42.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the KENT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
42.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 13 yds to the KENT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
42.1%
Cam Pickett run for 9 yds to the KENT 25Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
41.7%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Crowe,Ethan) 5 yards from KSU25 to KSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
41.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the KENT 25Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
41.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the KENT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
41.2%
Kadin Semonza run for 11 yds to the KENT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
41.1%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
41.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the KENT 11Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-6
41.2%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Kaden Beatty for a loss of 6 yards to the KENT 17Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+34
41.6%
Jackson Courville 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:4142% → 40%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
41.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 3 yds to the KENT 32Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
41.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 6 yds to the KENT 38Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
41.7%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the KENT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
41.7%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the KENT 44Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
40.8%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the KENT 48Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
40.1%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the KENT 49Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
39.6%
Ky Thomas run for no gain to the KENT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4961% → 61%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.2%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
38.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 8 yds to the KENT 41Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
38.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
39.1%
Kadin Semonza punt for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:5439% → 47%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
38.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+53
38.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 53 yds to the BALL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
40.4%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the BALL 24Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+24
46.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 24 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 24 yds · 4:1256% → 56%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.0%
Braedon Sloan run for no gain to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
44.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+11
45.0%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Semonza,Kadin pass incomplete short left to Robinson,Ty thrown to BSU36 PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Miller,Terrell) 11 yard from BSU27 to BSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
43.3%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BALL 39Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
43.4%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
43.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
43.9%
Kadin Semonza run for 1 yd to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
42.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
42.6%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
42.9%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
44.3%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2744% → 42%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
44.2%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the KENT 3Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
43.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+5
42.9%
Ky Thomas run for 5 yds to the KENT 8Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
42.3%
Josh Smith punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 44 , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the KENT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:5758% → 68%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
42.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the KENT 43Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
41.2%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+8
41.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Ty Robinson for 8 yds to the KENT 35Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
42.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the KENT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
40.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 31 yds to the KENT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3035% → 34%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
34.9%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 15 yds to the BALL 45 Kent State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stanley King) to the KENT 44Similar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 6
OWN 44
0
35.1%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
34.9%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the KENT 46Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+27
34.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 27 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
36.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
36.1%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for no gain to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
34.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
33.5%
Will Hryszko 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:0667% → 75%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
33.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Ty Robinson for 17 yds to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
31.7%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
31.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 1 yd to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+8
31.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds to the KENT 47Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+5
31.7%
(02:20) PENALTY KSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from KSU47 to KSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
30.2%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+18
30.5%
Charlie Spegal run for 18 yds to the KENT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
29.5%
Charlie Spegal run for 1 yd to the KENT 23Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+5
28.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tyce Ferrell for 5 yds to the KENT 18Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
29.2%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
24.8%
Jackson Courville 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
26.7%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Darin Conley for a loss of 5 yards to the KENT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2473% → 92%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
26.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 6 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
26.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
24.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
50
+7
22.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+18
22.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 18 yds to the KENT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
21.8%
Charlie Spegal run for no gain to the KENT 25Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
20.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 3 yds to the KENT 22Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+6
20.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the KENT 16Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
22.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the KENT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
8.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 13 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:1613% → 28%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
13.1%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the KENT 29Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
12.5%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy pass complete short left to McCray,Chrishon caught at KSU33, for 12 yards to the KSU41 (McClain,Eric; Snyder II,DD) PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from KSU29 to KSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+10
12.1%
Ky Thomas run for 10 yds to the KENT 34Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
12.2%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for 6 yds to the KENT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
10.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 32 yds to the BALL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
12.3%
Ky Thomas run for 24 yds to the BALL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.5%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:1783% → 85%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
17.1%
Ball State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BALL 18Similar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 18
OWN 18
+19
17.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 19 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
15.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 12 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
14.1%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-1
13.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 9
50
0
13.7%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 9
50
0
14.8%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:2620% → 18%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
19.7%
Ky Thomas run for no gain to the KENT 11Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+15
19.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 15 yds to the KENT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
19.2%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the KENT 23Similar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+25
17.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 10 yds to the KENT 33 for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Scott Hudson) to the KENT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
20.4%
Ky Thomas run for 5 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
21.4%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
20.2%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
20.2%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Brandon Berger for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 44Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+9
18.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Conner Muldowney for 9 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
20.0%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 1 yd to the BALL 36Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
17.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0091% → 92%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
9.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the BALL 35Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+1
9.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the BALL 36Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
8.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 8 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
8.1%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:1114% → 27%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
14.4%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Brandon Berger for a loss of 5 yards to the KENT 11Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+10
11.8%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy pass incomplete short right to McCray,Chrishon thrown to KSU30 PENALTY BSU Holding (McClain,Eric) 10 yards from KSU11 to KSU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
12.0%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 14 yds to the KENT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
11.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 16 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
12.9%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Joey Stemler for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 11
50
-5
11.4%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Masterson,Garrett) 5 yards from BSU50 to KSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 16
OWN 45
-8
10.1%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Sam Feeney for a loss of 8 yards to the KENT 37 Tommy Ulatowski fumbled, recovered by KENT Dustyn Morell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 24
OWN 37
+63
26.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 63 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:5280% → 91%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
19.1%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
20.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 14 yds to the BALL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
17.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 30 yds to the KENT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
15.3%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete for a 1ST down Kent State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaylen Dotson) to the KENT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
14.1%
Ball State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tanner Koziol) to the KENT 23Similar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+2
12.6%
Charlie Spegal run for 2 yds to the KENT 21Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 18
OPP 21
+1
11.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 1 yd to the KENT 20Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 17
OPP 20
0
11.2%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+38
9.0%
Jackson Courville 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 1:4012% → 50%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
11.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
10.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 14 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
9.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+20
9.1%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 20 yds to the BALL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-12
11.8%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Brandon Berger for a loss of 12 yards to the BALL 40Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 22
OPP 40
-5
8.0%
(02:00) PENALTY KSU False Start (Floriea,Luke) 5 yards from BSU40 to BSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 27
OPP 45
0
8.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 27
OPP 45
0
7.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 27
OPP 45
+27
6.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 27 yds to the BALL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
10.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
49.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 18 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:0986% → 95%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
14.0%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the KENT 41Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+41
4.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 41 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 0:325% → 27%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
4.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
4.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+5
4.2%
PENALTY BSU Offside (Berger,Brandon) 5 yards from KSU23 to KSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
4.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+15
4.0%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy pass incomplete short left to McCray,Chrishon thrown to KSU34 broken up by Hudson,Scott PENALTY BSU Roughing The Passer (Newson,Keionte) 15 yards from KSU28 to KSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
27.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 57 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
5.6%
Kneel down by Ball St. at KSU41 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 18 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
+39.5
TD · Q4 0:30
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 57 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
+22.9
TD · Q4 6:19
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 63 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com