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WMU

Western Michigan 45 at Ball State 42

BALL
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:07 · Ryan Millmore punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior−1.6Home team on offense−32.1Score differential−13.2Garbage-time factor−14.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:50: Braedon Sloan pass complete to Christian Abney for 22 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +16.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:52: Kadin Semonza pass complete to Drew Hughes for 2 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +17.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:19: Jaden Nixon run for 23 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +20.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:47: Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 27 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +22.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 1:47: Timeout Ball State, clock 01:47 — WMU win probability +18.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:57BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:32WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:45BALL 4th & 6 at WMU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:31WMU 4th & 1 at BALL 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−7.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:49BALL 4th & 1 at WMU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.5%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00WMU 4th & 5 at BALL 45, tied
    Close callWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−2.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    62.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:38WMU 4th & 1 at BALL 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−4.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−14.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:21WMU 4th & 5 at BALL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−13.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:15BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:15BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:07WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:28BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 14, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:39WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:43WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:29BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:02BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 4:09WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:54BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:13WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:50BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:52BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:19WMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:43WMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:47BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5022% → 23%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
22.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+12
22.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
22.6%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
22.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
22.9%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
23.0%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:1177% → 77%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
23.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 6 yds to the WMU 21Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
23.1%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the WMU 21Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+9
23.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 9 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
23.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 11 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
23.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
24.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 10 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
24.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 19 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
24.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 6 yds to the BALL 21Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+21
22.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 21 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
23.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the BALL 10 Kiael Kelly fumbled, recovered by WMU Jacob WahlbergSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3577% → 79%
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
22.7%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the BALL 10Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
20.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 10 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4577% → 76%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
23.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 35Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
23.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
23.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
23.7%
Ryan Millmore punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 1:2224% → 28%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
23.7%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 7Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
23.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+72
23.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 72 yds to the WMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
28.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Ty Robinson for 21 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4473% → 77%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
26.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 8 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+57
23.4%
Jaden Nixon run for 57 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
17 plays · 83 yds · 9:1024% → 36%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
24.3%
(04:04) PENALTY BSU False Start (Anugwom,Arkel) 5 yards from BSU17 to BSU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+14
24.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 14 yds to the BALL 26Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
24.9%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
24.5%
Kadin Semonza run for 5 yds to the BALL 36Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
25.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Kiael Kelly for 1 yd to the BALL 37Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
24.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
25.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 11 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
26.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the WMU 40Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-3
26.4%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Corey Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 43Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
26.0%
Kadin Semonza run for 4 yds to the WMU 39Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+19
25.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 19 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
27.7%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
27.7%
Charlie Spegal run for no gain to the WMU 20Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+14
27.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Ty Robinson for 14 yds to the WMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
28.2%
Kadin Semonza run for 2 yds to the WMU 4Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.7%
Cam Pickett run for 4 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:1868% → 68%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
31.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 32 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.4%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the BALL 41Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
29.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 11 yds to the BALL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
29.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 6 yds to the BALL 24Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+17
29.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 17 yds to the BALL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
29.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the BALL 3Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
29.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the BALL 1Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.8%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the BALL 1Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.3%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the BALL 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 49 yds · 3:3436% → 39%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
36.1%
Kadin Semonza run for 2 yds to the BALL 3Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
36.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the BALL 8Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+5
35.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the BALL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
37.3%
Braedon Sloan run for no gain to the BALL 13Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
36.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+10
35.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 10 yds to the BALL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
37.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+15
37.7%
(01:29) Shotgun Semonza,Kadin pass incomplete short left to Robinson,Ty thrown to BSU34 QB hurried by Lee,Tyson PENALTY WMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lee,Tyson) 15 yards from BSU27 to BSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
39.6%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
38.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 9 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
40.3%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
38.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4368% → 67%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
50
+6
31.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 6 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-7
30.5%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Riley Tolsma for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 49Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+6
33.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 6 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 45
-10
33.3%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Darin Conley for a loss of 10 yards to the WMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2265% → 77%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
35.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 4 yds to the WMU 35Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
34.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
35.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 7 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
34.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 9 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
33.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
22.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 43 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:0926% → 47%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
26.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 13 yds to the BALL 47 Ball State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BALL 37Similar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 7
OWN 37
+14
27.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 14 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
29.3%
Western Michigan Penalty, Chop Block (Donald Willis) to the WMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
30.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the WMU 32Similar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
47.0%
Braedon Sloan pass complete to Christian Abney for 22 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+10
46.8%
(09:50) Shotgun Semonza,Kadin pass incomplete short middle to Robinson,Ty thrown to WMU30 PENALTY WMU Holding (Kone,Bilhal) 10 yards from WMU32 to WMU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the WMU 28 Jaden Nixon fumbled, recovered by BALL Jordan ColemanSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the WMU 28 Jaden Nixon fumbled, recovered by BALL Jordan ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:4847% → 66%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
47.2%
(09:44) Shotgun Sloan,Braedon rush left for 2 yards loss to the WMU30 (Thompson,Anterio; Nelson,Mason) PENALTY WMU Face Mask (Nelson,Mason) 14 yards from WMU28 to WMU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
47.4%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
47.5%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the WMU 7Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
46.5%
Kadin Semonza run for 5 yds to the WMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Drew Hughes for 2 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 7:2643% → 46%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 9 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
56.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
56.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 2 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
57.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
50
+12
55.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 12 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the BALL 38Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
57.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 4 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
58.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
60.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
56.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for a loss of 8 yards to the BALL 35Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+13
62.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 13 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
60.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for no gain to the BALL 22Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
53.8%
Luka Zurak 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4462% → 62%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
62.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
62.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
61.9%
Kadin Semonza pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:4650% → 71%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
49.9%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
49.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 7 yds to the BALL 23Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
29.1%
Jaden Nixon run for 23 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:4936% → 32%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
36.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-10
34.5%
(12:36) Shotgun Semonza,Kadin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU29 (Willis,Donald) PENALTY BSU Holding (Mucciolo,Jon) 10 yards from BSU25 to BSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+3
34.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 18Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 15
OWN 18
0
32.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 15
OWN 18
0
31.5%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMU 44Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 15
OWN 18
0
31.5%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2469% → 90%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
30.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 22 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
25.9%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
25.7%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+18
25.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 18 yds to the BALL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
23.0%
(08:57) Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass incomplete short middle to Sambucci,Anthony thrown to BSU05 PENALTY BSU Holding (Newson,Keionte) 10 yards from BSU21 to BSU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
22.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the BALL 6Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
22.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the BALL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 1 yd for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3712% → 10%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
12.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 4 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
12.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
12.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Ty Robinson for 9 yds to the WMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
11.5%
run for 3 yds to the WMU 49 fumbled, recovered by BALL Kadin SemonzaSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
10.2%
Kadin Semonza pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:4291% → 94%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
9.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the WMU 29Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+8
9.4%
Jaden Nixon run for 8 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
9.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
7.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the WMU 39Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
6.8%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+4
6.7%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
6.2%
Ryan Millmore punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 1:084% → 27%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
4.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 9 yds to the BALL 24Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-10
4.4%
Ball State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kadin Semonza) to the BALL 14Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
3.9%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+15
3.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DaShon Bussell) to the BALL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
4.2%
PENALTY WMU Offside (Nelson,Mason) 5 yards from BSU29 to BSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+17
4.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 17 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
4.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Dahya Patel for 17 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Defensive Holding (DaShon Bussell) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
5.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 5 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
4.6%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
26.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 27 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4092% → 94%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
8.0%
Kneel down by Western Mich. at BSU48 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
6.5%
Kneel down by Western Mich. at BSU49 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-1
5.9%
Kneel down by Western Mich. at BSU50 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 27 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)
+22
TD · Q4 13:19
Jaden Nixon run for 23 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
-20.5
TD · Q4 1:47
Timeout Ball State, clock 01:47
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com