2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · Deion Brown run for 15 yds to the KENT 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:36: Delbert Mimms III run for 27 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +12.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:11: Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 43 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +11.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:30: Chrishon McCray 65 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick) — KENT win probability +14.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:10: Cole Snyder run for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +13.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:51: Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 5 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +9.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 8:06KENT 4th & 7 at EMU 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.3%average punt
- Q1 4:13EMU 4th & 10 at KENT 39, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snapGo for it78.2%30% to convertField goalTheir call78.2%−0.136% to makePunt78.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:05EMU 4th & 1 at KENT 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.3%71% to convertField goal71.2%−1.151% to makePunt70.8%−1.6average punt
- Q2 10:16KENT 4th & 17 at EMU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.3%−0.515% to convertField goal29.7%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q2 8:06EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it69.0%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.4%average punt
- Q2 1:00KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 34, down 7Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it24.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 13:11EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 34, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 64.3% before the snapGo for it65.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.9%−1.6average punt
- Q3 8:49EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it60.0%−2.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q3 4:06EMU 4th & 8 at KENT 8, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snapGo for it76.3%−0.826% to convertField goalTheir call77.1%90% to makePunt69.4%−7.8average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 45, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−0.9average punt
- Q4 12:13KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 27, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q4 10:20EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 30, up 24Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:44EMU 4th & 9 at KENT 43, up 19Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%32% to convertField goal98.4%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call98.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:45KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 25, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%22% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:39EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.9%97% to makeGo for two78.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:39KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.4%97% to makeGo for two26.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:36EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.6%97% to makeGo for two75.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:11KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.9%97% to makeGo for two30.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:12EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.0%97% to makeGo for two74.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:30KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.1%97% to makeGo for two33.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:10EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.9%97% to makeGo for two73.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:51EMU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:02EMU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:07KENT Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick1.8%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2079% → 79%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 4 yds to the EMU 29Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
21.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
50
+11
21.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 11 yds to the KENT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+9
21.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 9 yds to the KENT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
22.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 20 yds to the KENT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.4%
Elijah Jackson-Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 2:2922% → 22%
Q1 10:03
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+15
21.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray for a 1ST down Eastern Michigan Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Tyrelle Deener) to the KENT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
22.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
50
-5
22.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for no gain to the 50 yard line Kent State Penalty, illegal formation (Garrett Masterson) to the KENT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3MISSED FG9 plays · 52 yds · 3:4778% → 77%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
22.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Oran Singleton, broken up by Jaylen Dotson for a 1ST down Kent State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaylen Dotson) to the EMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
22.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 18 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
22.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
50
+9
21.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 9 yds to the KENT 41Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
21.9%
Cole Snyder sacked by Zaid Hamden for a loss of 6 yards to the KENT 45Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 16
OPP 45
-1
22.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jere Getzinger for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 46Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+7
22.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 7 yds to the KENT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4TD9 plays · 61 yds · 3:3024% → 30%
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+24
23.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Conner Muldowney for 24 yds to the EMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
25.1%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray for a 1ST down Eastern Michigan Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jordan Toney) to the EMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
30.1%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, off-side (Sterling Miles) to the EMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5Uncategorized9 plays · 19 yds · 3:2372% → 71%
Q2 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
27.2%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the KENT 49 Kent State Penalty, Defensive holding (Jaylen Dotson) to the KENT 41Similar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
27.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 1 yd to the KENT 40Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+7
27.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 7 yds to the KENT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 1:4231% → 31%
Q2 11:41
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+26
30.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Jahzae Kimbrough for 11 yds to the EMU 41 for a 1ST down Eastern Michigan Penalty, roughing passer (Peyton Price) to the EMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-7
33.4%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Carter Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the EMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0669% → 68%
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
30.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr. for a 1ST down Kent State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Naim Muhammad) to the EMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
30.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 1 yd to the EMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8INT3 plays · 10 yds · 1:1733% → 34%
EMUDrive 9TD1 play · 27 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:0826% → 38%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
37.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 43 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5168% → 79%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
32.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Max Reese Eastern Michigan Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the EMU 20Similar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
32.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Oran Singleton, broken up by Kaden BeattySimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+18
32.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 18 yds to the EMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+11
30.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 11 yds to the KENT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.2%
Elijah Jackson-Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1225% → 25%
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
24.6%
Josh Smith punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMU 16 , Oran Singleton returns for 1 yd to the EMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 22 yds · 0:2977% → 78%
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+8
23.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 8 yds to the EMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2925% → 39%
EMUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0865% → 63%
KENTDrive 16PUNT3 plays · -1 yds · 1:1639% → 38%
EMUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5563% → 59%
Q3 9:27
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+1
39.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 1 yd to the EMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18Uncategorized2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3042% → 43%
EMUDrive 19TD4 plays · 30 yds · 0:5266% → 79%
Q3 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+22
34.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 22 yds to the KENT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.9%
Ky Thomas run for 9 yds to the KENT 34 Ky Thomas fumbled, recovered by EMU JT KillenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21FG8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4779% → 81%
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
20.5%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 8 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by EMU Cole Snyder Snyder,Cole rush middle for loss of 1 yard to the KSU08, fumble by Snyder,Cole recovered by EMU Snyder,Cole, Snyder,Cole rush (Baka,Josh).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4320% → 21%
EMUDrive 23TD3 plays · 24 yds · 0:4284% → 93%
KENTDrive 24DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4711% → 10%
Q3 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
10.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 5 yds to the KENT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25TD4 plays · 45 yds · 0:4894% → 98%
Q4 14:09
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+15
2.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr. for a 1ST down Kent State Penalty, roughing passer (Kameron Olds) to the KENT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 1:372% → 2%
EMUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
KENTDrive 28TD5 plays · 73 yds · 0:532% → 4%
EMUDrive 29TD6 plays · 47 yds · 2:0897% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 30TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:450% → 3%
EMUDrive 31PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 32DOWNS4 plays · -2 yds · 0:572% → 2%
EMUDrive 33Uncategorized3 plays · 24 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
1.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quinn Fracassi for 2 yds to the KENT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:30
Chrishon McCray 65 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick)
+14
TD · Q3 7:10
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 6:36
Delbert Mimms III run for 27 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
-12