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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:33 · Avery Book punt for 53 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 10 yds to the OHIO 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:32: Mason Williams 0 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:20: Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for 17 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — AKR win probability +16.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +13.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:41: Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for 12 yds to the AKR 47 for a 1ST down — AKR win probability +9.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:51: Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 75 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +18.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 9AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:20OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it71.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.0%average punt
- Q1 6:42AKR 4th & 10 at OHIO 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call30.0%51% to makePunt29.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:04OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 38, down 3Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snapGo for it68.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:34AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 29, up 3Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:23OHIO 4th & 3 at AKR 45, down 3Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snapGo for it67.7%52% to convertField goal66.8%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call67.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:19AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.3%average punt
- Q2 9:19OHIO 4th & 8 at AKR 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snapGo for it64.7%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call65.0%60% to makePunt61.3%−3.7average punt
- Q2 4:21AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%average punt
- Q2 2:00OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 2, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snapGo for it66.5%−2.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q3 13:20AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 23, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it27.5%−2.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.6%average punt
- Q3 10:10OHIO 4th & 18 at OHIO 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snapGo for it69.0%−2.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.7%average punt
- Q3 9:11AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it25.5%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q3 6:21OHIO 4th & 3 at AKR 40, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 73.4% before the snapGo for it73.8%52% to convertField goal71.4%−2.434% to makePuntTheir call71.8%−2.0average punt
- Q3 1:19AKR 4th & 10 at OHIO 38, down 6Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snapGo for it26.3%30% to convertField goal26.0%−0.338% to makePuntTheir call25.9%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:50OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 10, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 76.9% before the snapGo for it77.9%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.5%−1.4average punt
- Q4 14:50OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 10, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 76.9% before the snapGo for it77.9%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.5%−1.4average punt
- Q4 12:33AKR 4th & 25 at AKR 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it19.3%−4.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 6:32OHIO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:20AKR Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.7%97% to makeGo for two40.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 0:17OHIO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.2%97% to makeGo for two70.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:51OHIO Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 0:59OHIO Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3971% → 71%
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.9%
NAVARRO, Parker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for OWEN, Coleman thrown to the AKRON36. PENALTY AKRON Holding on ANDERSON, Justin enforced 10 yards from the OHIO25 to the OHIO35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-9
70.9%
Parker Navarro sacked by Bennett Adler for a loss of 9 yards to the OHIO 31Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+8
70.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 8 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FG13 plays · 54 yds · 5:3829% → 31%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
70.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 5 yds to the AKR 19Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+10
70.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 10 yds to the AKR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
70.5%
FINLEY, Ben pass to the left complete for 7 yards to SIMMONS, Jordon caught at the AKRON24 and advanced to the AKRON36 (BRAWLEY, Austin;PEARSON, Tank), out of bounds. PENALTY AKRON Holding on GOLDEN, Bobby enforced 10 yards from the AKRON29 to the AKRON19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+15
70.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 15 yds to the AKR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
70.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 12 yds to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
70.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 11 yds to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-2
70.3%
Ben Finley sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 37Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+5
70.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Charles Kellom for 5 yds to the OHIO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3068% → 67%
Q1 5:04
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+2
67.4%
Jack Wilson punt for 43 yds , Jordan Castleberry returns for 2 yds to the AKR 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3032% → 32%
Q1 3:34
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+11
67.9%
Avery Book punt for 48 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 11 yds to the OHIO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1166% → 66%
Q1 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
65.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 5 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4134% → 34%
Q2 14:19
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+27
66.3%
Avery Book punt for 50 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 27 yds to the OHIO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7MISSED FG15 plays · 47 yds · 4:4866% → 65%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
66.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 10 yds to the OHIO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
67.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 7 yds to the AKR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
68.1%
NAVARRO, Parker pass to the left complete for 17 yards to PUGH, Eian caught at the AKRON23 and advanced to the AKRON13; QB hurried by KAPONGO, Nate and ANDERSON, Justin (LEWIS III, Paul), out of bounds. PENALTY OHIO Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HEIDECKER, Carson enforced 5 yards from the AKRON30 to the AKRON35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4537% → 36%
OHIODrive 9TD4 plays · 42 yds · 2:0266% → 74%
Q2 8:34
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+25
65.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 35 yds to the AKR 8 for a 1ST down Ohio Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AKR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
66.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for 23 yds to the AKR 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1127% → 26%
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
73.3%
FINLEY, Ben pass deep to the left incomplete intended for NORTON, Adrian thrown to the OHIO34. PENALTY OHIO Pass Interference on PARODIE, Roman enforced 15 yards to the AKRON45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
71.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 6 yds to the OHIO 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:2173% → 72%
Q2 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+18
71.8%
Jack Wilson punt for 47 yds , Jordan Castleberry returns for 18 yds to the OHIO 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12TD3 plays · 31 yds · 0:4028% → 45%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
72.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tahj Bullock for 4 yds to the OHIO 27Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
71.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 10 yds to the OHIO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
55.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for 17 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:0358% → 76%
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
60.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 5 yds to the OHIO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
61.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 18 yds to the AKR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
76.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
75.4%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINLEY, Ben at AKRON28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3531% → 29%
Q3 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-2
70.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1070% → 70%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
70.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 20 yds to the OHIO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
71.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 11 yds to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 8
OPP 45
-10
71.8%
WILSON, Jack punt 43 yards to the AKRON2 out of bounds, clock 10:20. PENALTY OHIO Holding on BRUNE, Duncan enforced 10 yards from the AKRON45 to the OHIO45 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5929% → 26%
Q3 9:11
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
73.6%
Avery Book punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the AKR 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:5075% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19SF3 plays · -8 yds · 0:5729% → 26%
OHIODrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · 32 yds · 2:3575% → 81%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
75.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bryan McCoy) to the AKR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
80.5%
Parker Navarro sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the AKR 35 Parker Navarro fumbled, recovered by AKR Marcus Moore Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:2229% → 28%
OHIODrive 22PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2978% → 76%
AKRDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 2:1731% → 26%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
69.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Tahj Bullock for a loss of 6 yards to the AKR 39Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-15
70.5%
Ben Finley sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 15 yards to the AKR 30Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 25
OWN 30
+10
74.3%
Avery Book punt for 53 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 10 yds to the OHIO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24TD2 plays · 73 yds · 0:4278% → 97%
AKRDrive 25END OF GAME9 plays · 63 yds · 4:109% → 10%
Q4 11:46
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+22
91.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 22 yds to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
89.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 11 yds to the AKR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
89.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 10 yds to the OHIO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
89.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 6 yds to the OHIO 32Similar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-14
89.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for a loss of 14 yards to the OHIO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
98.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 7 yds to the OHIO 40 fumbled, recovered by AKR Malcom DeWalt IV M. DeWalt IV return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27INT3 plays · 12 yds · 0:597% → 7%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
92.8%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Austin Brawley return for no gain to the OHIO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28TD15 plays · 85 yds · 5:3099% → 100%
Q4 6:29
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+15
98.5%
NAVARRO, Parker pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Mason thrown to the OHIO21; QB hurried by NUNNALLY, CJ. PENALTY AKRON Unsportsmanlike Conduct on NUNNALLY, CJ enforced 15 yards from the OHIO23 to the OHIO38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.3%
NAVARRO, Parker pass short to the left incomplete intended for HENDRICKS, Chase thrown to the AKRON0; QB hurried by LAVEA, Lama. PENALTY OHIO Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SHELBY, Jarian AKRON Holding on LEWIS, Darrian , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29END OF GAME3 plays · 13 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
FINLEY, Ben pass up the middle incomplete intended for POLK, Israel thrown to the AKRON39. PENALTY OHIO Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BOB, Walter enforced 15 yards from the AKRON25 to the AKRON40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
99.7%
Ben Finley sacked by Cam Rice for a loss of 11 yards to the AKR 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:51
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 75 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+18.8
TD · Q2 1:20
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for 17 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q2 0:17
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+13.3