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BALL

Ball State 34 at Central Michigan 37

CMU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:48 · Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the BALL 34 Marion Lukes fumbled, recovered by BALL Jordan Coleman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+7.1Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:37: Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Chris Parker for 7 yds for a TD Ball State Penalty, Personal Foul (Joey Stemler) to the BALL 0 (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +11.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:56: Braedon Sloan run for 22 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK) — BALL win probability +13.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:02: Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +35.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:53: Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 16 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK) — BALL win probability +72.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:16: Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 20 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +79.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:44CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:21BALL 4th & 14 at CMU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03CMU 4th & 4 at BALL 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:28CMU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 10
    Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:18BALL 4th & 3 at CMU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:10BALL 4th & 2 at CMU 38, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−1.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:32BALL 4th & 20 at BALL 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:20BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−3.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:56BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−2.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−10.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:48CMU 4th & 1 at BALL 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−5.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54BALL 4th & 19 at CMU 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−3.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:44CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−6.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:39BALL 4th & 6 at CMU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−19.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:04BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:59CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:37BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:00CMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:37CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:43CMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:56BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:02CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:53BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−1.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:16CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0469% → 69%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
69.4%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the CMU 11Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+7
69.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Gavin Harris for 7 yds to the CMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
69.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for 3 yds to the CMU 21Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
69.2%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 5 yds to the CMU 26Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
69.0%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the CMU 26Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
68.8%
David Chapeau punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:1431% → 32%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
68.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 7 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
68.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 4 yds to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
68.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 24 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
68.1%
(09:56) Shotgun Semonza,Kadin pass complete short right to Magwood,Qian caught at CMU37, for 1 yard loss to the CMU33 (Sanchez III,Fernando) PENALTY BSU Holding (Gillie,Malcolm) 10 yards from CMU32 to CMU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+3
68.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 3 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+19
68.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 19 yds to the CMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
67.6%
Malcolm Gillie run for 12 yds to the CMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
67.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
67.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the CMU 14Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
67.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
67.8%
Carson Holmer 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:5367% → 67%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
67.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to B.J. Harris for 3 yds to the CMU 16Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+41
67.2%
B.J. Harris run for 41 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
67.9%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
67.8%
Nahree Biggins run for 2 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+6
67.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Nahree Biggins for 6 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
66.9%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:2134% → 41%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.3%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
66.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+9
66.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
65.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 24 yds to the CMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
64.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 16 yds to the CMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
63.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 6 yds to the CMU 6Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
59.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 6 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:3259% → 58%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
58.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 27 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.7%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
59.5%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 45Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
58.7%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 2
50
0
57.9%
David Chapeau punt blocked by Sam Feeney blocked by Sam Feeney (13:34) Chapeau,David punt 0 yards to the CMU50 blocked by Feeney,Sam recovered by BSU Frazier,Dakari at CMU47, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5742% → 43%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
57.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 3 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
57.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+1
56.9%
Kadin Semonza run for 1 yd to the CMU 40Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+2
56.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 2 yds to the CMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1356% → 67%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
56.0%
B.J. Harris run for 6 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+36
56.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 36 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
66.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4437% → 39%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+22
61.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 22 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
60.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
60.5%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
59.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
60.6%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:2862% → 73%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
62.0%
Nahree Biggins run for 3 yds to the CMU 17Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+76
61.5%
Nahree Biggins run for 76 yds to the BALL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
72.6%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Chris Parker for 7 yds for a TD Ball State Penalty, Personal Foul (Joey Stemler) to the BALL 0 (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:5330% → 28%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
70.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Kiael Kelly for a loss of 7 yards to the BALL 18Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
70.5%
Malcolm Gillie run for no gain to the BALL 18Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+2
71.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 2 yds to the BALL 20Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
71.9%
(03:46) Cooey,Brian punt 50 yards to the CMU30 Kent,Donte return 0 yards to the CMU30, out of bounds at CMU30 PENALTY BSU Illegal Motion (Feeney,Sam) 5 yards from BSU20 to BSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
71.9%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:3972% → 79%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
72.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 6 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+10
73.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 10 yds to the BALL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
73.1%
Marion Lukes run for 23 yds to the BALL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for no gain to the BALL 2Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.6%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the BALL 2Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.2%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:1921% → 32%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
79.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 19 yds to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
78.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 4
50
0
77.0%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 4
50
+5
77.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
77.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 4 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+17
77.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 17 yds to the CMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.4%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
75.8%
Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) to the CMU 23Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
68.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 23 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:0869% → 77%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
68.5%
B.J. Harris run for 71 yds to the BALL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+11
73.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 11 yds to the BALL 15Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
77.2%
Tristan Mattson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5528% → 46%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
71.2%
Central Michigan Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Justin Whiteside) to the BALL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
70.5%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+10
69.5%
(13:29) Shotgun Semonza,Kadin pass complete short right to Kelly,Kiael caught at BSU46, for 11 yards to the CMU43 (Turner-Kinsler,Jaree) PENALTY CMU Holding (Wiliams,Jason) 10 yards from BSU46 to CMU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
69.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 7 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+1
68.4%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the CMU 36Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
68.7%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the CMU 35Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
69.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the CMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
66.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
66.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
67.6%
Braedon Sloan run for no gain to the CMU 22Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+22
54.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 22 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:0058% → 60%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
58.3%
Marion Lukes run for 27 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.6%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
62.2%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
61.7%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+5
59.8%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the BALL 34 Marion Lukes fumbled, recovered by BALL Jordan ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 6:4846% → 47%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
54.5%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 36Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
54.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 8 yds to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
52.2%
Christian Davis run for 5 yds to the BALL 49Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
50.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
49.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
49.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Christian Davis for 3 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
49.5%
Christian Davis run for 3 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+7
49.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 7 yds to the CMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
46.8%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the CMU 35 Kiael Kelly fumbled, recovered by BALL Kiael KellySimilar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
48.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-5
49.7%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Dakota Cochran for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 40Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
53.3%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0253% → 48%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
53.3%
B.J. Harris run for 7 yds to the CMU 13Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+9
52.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Gavin Harris for 9 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-6
50.1%
Joe Labas sacked by Brandon Berger for a loss of 6 yards to the CMU 16Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
48.0%
David Chapeau punt for 45 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the BALL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:5955% → 70%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
45.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
50
-15
42.8%
(12:07) Shotgun Semonza,Kadin pass incomplete deep left to Pickett,Cam thrown to CMU21 PENALTY BSU Chop Block (Davis,Christian) 15 yards from BSU50 to BSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+5
47.7%
Kadin Semonza run for 5 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+6
46.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 6 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+15
46.1%
(10:38) Shotgun Semonza,Kadin pass incomplete short left to Patel,Dahya thrown to CMU38, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Rikard,Elijah) 15 yards from BSU46 to CMU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
40.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the CMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
37.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+1
37.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the CMU 23Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
39.0%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
30.1%
Carson Holmer 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3335% → 76%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.8%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.2%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Labas,Joe rush left for 0 yards to the CMU25 (Berger,Brandon), out of bounds PENALTY BSU Holding (Davis,Elijah) 10 yards from CMU25 to CMU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
35.4%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
37.6%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
37.6%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 48Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
37.3%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+17
35.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 17 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
41.2%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+19
40.9%
B.J. Harris run for 19 yds to the BALL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
75.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5234% → 29%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the BALL 26Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
66.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for no gain to the BALL 26Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
68.4%
Kadin Semonza sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the BALL 17Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
70.6%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0182% → 86%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
81.9%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 38Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+4
84.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the CMU 42Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+1
85.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
85.6%
David Chapeau punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
5 plays · 97 yds · 1:0120% → 95%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
79.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 14 yds to the BALL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
78.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds to the BALL 26Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+13
77.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 13 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+45
77.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 45 yds to the CMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
4.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 16 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:3018% → 96%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
17.8%
B.J. Harris run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
50
+6
22.2%
B.J. Harris run for 6 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+2
18.1%
Joe Labas pass complete to B.J. Harris for 2 yds to the CMU 46Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+34
15.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 34 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
95.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 20 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · -19 yds · 0:1019% → 17%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for a loss of 19 yards to the BALL 6 lat. to for 2 yds to the BALL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:16
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 20 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
+79.7
TD · Q4 0:53
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 16 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
-72.5
TD · Q4 5:02
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
+35.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com