Try the model
SFPA

Saint Francis 23 at Kent State 17

KENT
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Dix Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadSFPA aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreSFPA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:34 · Aidan Cirulli punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+12.1Home team on offense−17.5Score differential−7.6Garbage-time factor−5.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:56: Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 64 yds for a TD (Mac Plummer KICK) — SFPA win probability +10.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: SFPA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:59: Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +7.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:56: Mac Plummer 33 yd FG GOOD — SFPA win probability +3.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: SFPA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:46: Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 23 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +7.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:38: Andrew Glass 44 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +13.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 13 of 14SFPA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:21KENT 4th & 17 at KENT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53SFPA 4th & 8 at KENT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:24SFPA 4th & 3 at SFPA 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:04KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:09KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:21SFPA 4th & 5 at SFPA 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:33KENT 4th & 1 at SFPA 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:27KENT 4th & 3 at SFPA 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:56SFPA 4th & 7 at KENT 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:30SFPA 4th & 6 at KENT 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:55KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 33, down 9
    Close callPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:08SFPA 4th & 5 at SFPA 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:08SFPA 4th & 5 at SFPA 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:30KENT 4th & 14 at SFPA 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−10.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:34SFPA 4th & 11 at KENT 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:54KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:54KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:31SFPA 4th & 5 at SFPA 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:53KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 35, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:33SFPA 4th & 6 at SFPA 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:44KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.1%−1.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:44KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.1%−1.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:04SFPA 4th & 7 at KENT 44, up 9
    Close callPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.7
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:38KENT 4th & 10 at SFPA 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SFPA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:46SFPA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:56SFPA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:59KENT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:46KENT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2687% → 87%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.3%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the KENT 41Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-9
87.1%
Devin Kargman sacked by Paul Tangelo for a loss of 9 yards to the KENT 32Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 17
OWN 32
0
86.9%
Josh Smith punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 2FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:1813% → 14%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
86.9%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 16 yds to the SFPA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
86.7%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Joe Skule for 9 yds to the SFPA 41Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+9
86.6%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to DeMarcus McElroy for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+16
86.4%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Cinsere Clark for 16 yds to the KENT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
86.1%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
86.0%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 2 yds to the KENT 32Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
85.9%
DeMarcus McElroy run for no gain to the KENT 32Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
85.7%
Mac Plummer 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1786% → 85%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.6%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the KENT 24Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
85.4%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
85.2%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ky Thomas for 8 yds to the KENT 32Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
84.9%
Josh Smith punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5615% → 15%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.0%
Markell Holman run for 7 yds to the SFPA 42Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
84.7%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1285% → 84%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
84.5%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the KENT 11Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+2
84.3%
Curtis Douglas run for 2 yds to the KENT 13Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
83.9%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
83.6%
Josh Smith punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 6TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:1116% → 20%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
83.7%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 24 yds to the KENT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
83.2%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 12 yds to the KENT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
83.1%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the KENT 7Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
82.7%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 5 yds to the KENT 2Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.2%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 2 yds for a TD (Mac Plummer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1580% → 78%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
80.1%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Curtis Douglas for a loss of 3 yards to the KENT 15Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+6
79.1%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 6 yds to the KENT 21 Tommy Ulatowski fumbled, recovered by KENT Conner MuldowneySimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
78.7%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
78.1%
Josh Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Aaron Tutino at the SFPA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4222% → 22%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
78.4%
Markell Holman run for 5 yds to the SFPA 38Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
77.7%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
77.8%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
78.1%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:4078% → 76%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
77.7%
Curtis Douglas run for 8 yds to the KENT 31Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+26
77.8%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 26 yds to the SFPA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
77.7%
Curtis Douglas run for 4 yds to the SFPA 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+15
77.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Kargman,Devin pass incomplete short middle to Martin,DaShawn thrown to SFU25 PENALTY SFU Pass Interference (Swaim,Mercury) 15 yards from SFU39 to SFU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
78.0%
Curtis Douglas run for 1 yd to the SFPA 23Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
77.6%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+8
76.5%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Curtis Douglas for 8 yds to the SFPA 15Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
75.8%
Curtis Douglas run for no gain to the SFPA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 10TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:2624% → 37%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
75.6%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Cinsere Clark for 7 yds to the SFPA 22Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
74.6%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the SFPA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
74.3%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 8 yds to the SFPA 35Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
73.3%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the SFPA 36Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+64
63.0%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 64 yds for a TD (Mac Plummer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:4167% → 69%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
66.5%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the KENT 48Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
65.6%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 5 yds to the SFPA 47Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
65.1%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+12
64.8%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 12 yds to the SFPA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
64.7%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the SFPA 32Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
64.2%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Kargman,Devin pass incomplete deep left to McCray,Chrishon thrown to SFU02 PENALTY SFU Offside (Thomas,Gavin) 5 yards from SFU32 to SFU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+4
64.0%
Curtis Douglas run for 4 yds to the SFPA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
64.0%
Curtis Douglas run for 6 yds to the SFPA 17Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
62.9%
Curtis Douglas run for 3 yds to the SFPA 14Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
62.0%
Curtis Douglas run for 5 yds to the SFPA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 12FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:5434% → 46%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
65.6%
Markell Holman run for 26 yds to the KENT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.9%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
63.8%
Markell Holman run for 9 yds to the KENT 40Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
62.9%
Markell Holman run for 3 yds to the KENT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.0%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
61.9%
Markell Holman run for 1 yd to the KENT 38Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+20
61.0%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Jayden Ivory for 20 yds to the KENT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
59.6%
Markell Holman run for 3 yds to the KENT 15Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
58.8%
Markell Holman run for no gain to the KENT 15Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
58.0%
Jeff Hoenstine run for no gain to the KENT 15Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
54.1%
Mac Plummer 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 0:4957% → 68%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
57.4%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ky Thomas for no gain to the KENT 32Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
56.8%
Devin Kargman run for 12 yds to the KENT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
57.6%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
57.0%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ky Thomas for 10 yds to the SFPA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
58.4%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 19 yds to the SFPA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
61.5%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Curtis Douglas for a loss of 5 yards to the SFPA 32Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+9
60.5%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the SFPA 23Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
68.3%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 23 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4635% → 36%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.6%
PENALTY SFU Delay Of Game (Hoenstine,Jeff) 5 yards from SFU25 to SFU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
64.4%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the SFPA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 15FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2437% → 45%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.5%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the SFPA 27Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
62.6%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 7 yds to the SFPA 34Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
61.5%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 10 yds to the SFPA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
59.7%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 24 yds to the KENT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
58.2%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
58.2%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the KENT 30Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+2
58.3%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the KENT 28Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
54.8%
Mac Plummer 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2957% → 53%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.6%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.2%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ky Thomas for 8 yds to the KENT 33Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
54.5%
Ky Thomas run for no gain to the KENT 33Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
52.5%
Josh Smith punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3848% → 51%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
51.9%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
52.7%
Jeff Hoenstine sacked by Kameron Olds for a loss of 5 yards to the SFPA 23Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+10
51.9%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Markell Holman for 10 yds to the SFPA 33Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
48.6%
Aidan Cirulli punt for no gain , Luke Floriea returns for no gain to the KENT 49Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+29
48.6%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 47 yds , Luke Floriea returns for 29 yds to the KENT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18MISSED FG
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:2752% → 44%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
51.6%
Ky Thomas run for 32 yds to the SFPA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
53.1%
Ky Thomas run for 10 yds to the SFPA 29 Ky Thomas fumbled, recovered by KENT Conner MuldowneySimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+4
51.3%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 4 yds to the SFPA 25Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+2
48.3%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Curtis Douglas for 2 yds to the SFPA 23Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+40
44.4%
Andrew Glass 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3555% → 64%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
44.7%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the SFPA 22Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+3
44.3%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the SFPA 25Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+33
43.7%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 33 yds to the KENT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
38.3%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the KENT 41Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-6
36.5%
Jeff Hoenstine sacked by Kameron Olds for a loss of 6 yards to the KENT 47Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+9
38.4%
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 9 yds to the KENT 38Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 6
OPP 38
-5
35.8%
PENALTY SFU False Start (Tharpe,James) 5 yards from KSU38 to KSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
36.4%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3337% → 32%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
37.3%
Ky Thomas run for 5 yds to the KENT 25Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
36.9%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the KENT 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
34.6%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 1 yd to the KENT 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-5
33.2%
PENALTY KSU Delay Of Game (Kargman,Devin) 5 yards from KSU27 to KSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
32.4%
Josh Smith punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Aaron Tutino at the SFPA 25Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
32.4%
Josh Smith punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Aaron Tutino at the SFPA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1765% → 64%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.6%
Markell Holman run for 3 yds to the SFPA 28Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
34.3%
Markell Holman run for 2 yds to the SFPA 30Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
34.1%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
35.7%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2633% → 30%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
33.4%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the KENT 35Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
33.1%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
31.5%
Kent State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
30.4%
Josh Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Aaron Tutino at the SFPA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:1467% → 76%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
33.4%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 15 yds to the SFPA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
31.4%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 9 yds to the SFPA 39Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
28.8%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the SFPA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.2%
DeMarcus McElroy run for no gain to the SFPA 41Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
24.0%
Jeff Hoenstine run for 4 yds to the SFPA 37 Jeff Hoenstine fumbled, recovered by KENT Stephen DaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:4629% → 30%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
29.2%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 7 yds to the SFPA 30Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+11
31.9%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 11 yds to the SFPA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
30.5%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Kargman,Devin pass incomplete short left to McCray,Chrishon thrown to SFU00 PENALTY SFU Pass Interference (Rodgers,Mekhi) 10 yards from SFU19 to SFU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
30.2%
Devin Kargman pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4577% → 83%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
22.7%
Markell Holman run for 4 yds to the SFPA 24Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
19.7%
Markell Holman run for 13 yds to the SFPA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Jeff Hoenstine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
18.5%
Markell Holman run for 7 yds to the SFPA 44Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
16.8%
Markell Holman run for 3 yds to the SFPA 41Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
17.1%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4017% → 14%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.1%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 7 yds to the KENT 32Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
18.0%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 10 yds to the KENT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
17.1%
Devin Kargman run for 4 yds to the KENT 38Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+9
14.7%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 9 yds to the KENT 47Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
16.1%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
14.4%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
14.4%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3289% → 91%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
11.1%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the KENT 44Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
10.7%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the KENT 43Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+4
9.2%
DeMarcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the KENT 39Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-5
8.8%
(03:13) PENALTY SFU Delay Of Game (Cirulli,Aidan) 5 yards from KSU39 to KSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
8.7%
Aidan Cirulli punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:086% → 20%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
6.2%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the KENT 28Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+15
6.6%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Kargman,Devin pass incomplete deep middle to Floriea,Luke thrown to SFU30 PENALTY SFU Pass Interference (Crawford,DaMario) 15 yards from KSU28 to KSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
6.8%
Devin Kargman run for 2 yds to the KENT 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+14
6.3%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 14 yds to the SFPA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
7.0%
PENALTY SFU Targeting (Bierals,Eddie) 15 yards from SFU41 to SFU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
8.9%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
8.5%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
6.9%
Devin Kargman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
20.3%
Andrew Glass 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFPADrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3295% → 95%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.1%
Markell Holman run for no gain to the KENT 48Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
5.1%
Markell Holman run for 4 yds to the SFPA 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+2
4.9%
Markell Holman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:38
Andrew Glass 44 yd FG GOOD
+13.4
TD · Q2 10:56
Jeff Hoenstine pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 64 yds for a TD (Mac Plummer KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q2 0:46
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 23 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com