2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreWIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:51 · Antonio Chadha 44 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 0:51: Antonio Chadha 44 Yd Field Goal — WIU win probability +0.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 8:47: Trayvon Rudolph 60 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick) — NIU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:55: Keyshaun Pipkin 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick) — NIU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Trayvon Rudolph 43 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick) — NIU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:28: Grayson Barnes 60 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick) — NIU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 12:46WIU 4th & 7 at WIU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 8:23WIU 4th & 8 at NIU 21, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call2.5%74% to makePunt2.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:51WIU 4th & 6 at NIU 27, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call3.8%62% to makePunt3.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 8:55WIU 4th & 7 at WIU 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 7:00WIU 4th & 6 at WIU 33, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 1:24WIU 4th & 10 at WIU 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 11:28WIU 4th & 8 at WIU 43, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 1:39WIU 4th & 9 at NIU 28, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%60% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 14:47NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 46, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 13:31WIU 4th & 9 at WIU 23, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 12:21NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:36NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:47NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:55NIU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40NIU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:28NIU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:22NIU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWIUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:082% → 2%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
98.3%
Nathan Lamb sacked by Roy Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the WIU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD3 plays · 46 yds · 0:2598% → 98%
WIUDrive 3MISSED FG13 plays · 46 yds · 3:492% → 2%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
98.0%
Torrance Farmer Jr. run for 10 yds to the NIU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FUMBLE6 plays · 67 yds · 2:5798% → 98%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
97.8%
Shotgun Hampton,Ethan rush right for 23 yards gain to the WIU29 (Epley,Noah) PENALTY NIU Illegal Formation 5 yards from NIU48 to NIU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.5%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the WIU 12 Gavin Williams fumbled, recovered by WIU Braylen BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 5FG11 plays · 61 yds · 4:353% → 4%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
50
-10
97.0%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Tristin Duncan for a 1ST down Western Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matthew Henry) to the NIU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1596% → 96%
Q2 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
96.4%
Cam Thompson 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:364% → 4%
Q2 8:55
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+10
96.0%
Jared Campbell punt for 40 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 10 yds to the NIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:383% → 3%
Q2 7:00
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
97.2%
Jared Campbell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD11 plays · 68 yds · 5:0599% → 99%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.9%
Keyshaun Pipkin 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:252% → 2%
Q2 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
98.4%
Jared Campbell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12TD5 plays · 60 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+43
99.6%
Trayvon Rudolph 43 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
WIUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 11:28
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Jared Campbell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD15 plays · 88 yds · 7:06100% → 100%
WIUDrive 17FG9 plays · 50 yds · 2:360% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 13:31
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Jared Campbell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD13 plays · 64 yds · 5:31100% → 100%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
99.9%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 21TD10 plays · 81 yds · 4:560% → 0%
Q4 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+27
100.0%
Torrance Farmer Jr. 27 Yd pass from Nathan Lamb (Antonio Chadha Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22END OF GAME10 plays · 57 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:47
Trayvon Rudolph 60 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)
+1.4
TD · Q2 1:55
Keyshaun Pipkin 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)
+1.3
FG · Q1 0:51
Antonio Chadha 44 Yd Field Goal
-0.8