2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadCCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreCCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:00 · N.Biggins rushed for 11 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 17.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:04: E.Howard rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — CCSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:55: J.Barnum kicks 57 yards from CCSU 30 to the CMC 13. S.Bracey returns the kickoff. TOUCHDOWN. — CMU win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:01: B.Harris rushed for 9 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — CMU win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:56: J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by E.Boyd for 47 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — CMU win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:25: J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Davis for 17 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — CMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 3:46CCSU 4th & 6 at CCSU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q1 3:36CCSU 4th & 11 at CCSU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q1 0:55CMU 4th & 7 at CCSU 45, up 7Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.6%37% to convertField goal95.5%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call95.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:23CCSU 4th & 1 at CCSU 22, down 7Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:33CCSU 4th & 8 at CCSU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q2 4:00CMU 4th & 1 at CCSU 28, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%71% to convertField goal97.8%−0.460% to makePunt97.0%−1.2average punt
- Q2 1:19CMU 4th & 3 at CCSU 33, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%53% to convertField goal99.3%−0.149% to makePunt99.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:21CCSU 4th & 11 at CMU 33, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.127% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%49% to makePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:55CMU 4th & 5 at CCSU 8, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%90% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:20CCSU 4th & 9 at CCSU 26, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 5:03CCSU 4th & 10 at CCSU 33, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:12CCSU 4th & 6 at CMU 6, down 55Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goal0.0%91% to makePunt-0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:56CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 15, up 55Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:48CCSU 4th & 7 at CMU 41, down 55Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%37% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:08CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 45, up 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:36CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:04CCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.1%97% to makeGo for two4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:01CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:56CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:25CMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40CMU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:45CMU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick100.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCMUDrive 1TD8 plays · 79 yds · 4:1998% → 97%
Q1 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+21
97.4%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by C.Parker for 21 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CMC 46.Similar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
97.4%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Davis for 16 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 38.Similar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
97.3%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by C.Parker for 12 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 26.Similar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
97.2%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by G.Harris for 5 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 21.Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+7
97.0%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by M.Bailey for 7 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 14. PENALTY on CCSU-M.Wright, Personal Foul / Defense, 7 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 2TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:283% → 4%
Q1 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
97.0%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by M.Plaskon for 9 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 40.Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+26
96.8%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by J.Robertson for 26 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 30.Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+10
96.5%
B.Olson rushed for 10 yards. B.Olson ran out of bounds. PENALTY on CMC-E.Rikard, Personal Foul / Defense, 11 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
96.5%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by S.O'Brien for 1 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 10.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:034% → 4%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.4%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by E.Howard for 10 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CCSU 35.Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
96.2%
B.Olson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for S.O'Brien.Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+43
96.2%
A.Clark punts 43 yards to CMC 18, Center-C.Escoto. Downed by CCSU. PENALTY on CCSU-CCSU, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+43
96.2%
A.Clark punts 43 yards to CMC 23, Center-C.Escoto. D.Kent returned punt from the CMC 23. Tackled by CCSU at CMC 40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4196% → 96%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.3%
M.Bailey rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CMC 47. PENALTY on CMC-B.Swartout, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 19
OWN 31
+21
96.1%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by J.Prewitt for 21 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 48.Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
96.1%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Bracey for yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 47. PENALTY on CMC-M.Koivisto, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
95.9%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Prewitt.Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+12
95.8%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by M.Bailey for 12 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 45.Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+32
95.7%
D.Chapeau punts 32 yards to CCSU 13, Center-B.Pratt. Fair catch by M.Plaskon.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:204% → 5%
Q2 13:39
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+8
95.4%
D.Marcus rushed for 9 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 23. The Replay Official reviewed the first down and the play was overturned. D.Marcus rushed for 8 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 22.Similar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+35
95.4%
A.Clark punts 35 yards to CMC 43, Center-C.Escoto. D.Kent returned punt from the CMC 43. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 46.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD4 plays · 46 yds · 1:2296% → 97%
Q2 12:42
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
95.3%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for S.Davis. PENALTY on CCSU-T.Armstrong, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
95.5%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by G.Harris for 24 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 9.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 3:174% → 4%
Q2 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+11
96.0%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by M.Plaskon for 10 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 38. The Replay Official reviewed the first down and the play was overturned. B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by M.Plaskon for 11 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 39.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.8%
B.Olson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Robertson.Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
95.9%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by S.O'Brien for 2 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 41.Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+59
95.9%
A.Clark punts 59 yards to CMC End Zone, Center-C.Escoto. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2896% → 98%
CMUDrive 10TD5 plays · 37 yds · 2:4898% → 99%
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.2%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by J.Prewitt for 5 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 32.Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
98.2%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Davis for 4 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 28.Similar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.3%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Davis for 17 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD12 plays · 55 yds · 1:4299% → 100%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.3%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Bracey for 15 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 40.Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.4%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Temple.Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+12
99.4%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by C.Parker for 12 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 33.Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
99.4%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Williams.Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+17
99.4%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by J.Williams for 17 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 16.Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.5%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Prewitt.Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
99.5%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for E.Boyd. PENALTY on CCSU-D.Walden, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 13FG12 plays · 42 yds · 3:390% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by M.Plaskon for 4 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 29.Similar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
99.6%
B.Olson rushed for -3 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 32. The Replay Official reviewed the potential foul and the play was overturned. B.Olson steps back to pass. Sacked at CCSU 32 for -3 yards (J.Whiteside).Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+4
99.6%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by D.Attafah for 4 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 36.Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
99.7%
B.Olson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for CCSU. PENALTY on CMC-J.Davis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
99.6%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by D.Attafah for 7 yards. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 48.Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
99.6%
B.Olson pass complete. Catch made by M.Plaskon for 20 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 32.Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
B.Olson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for S.O'Brien.Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 11
OPP 33
0
99.7%
B.Olson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Cleary.Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 11
OPP 33
0
99.4%
J.Barnum 50 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-C.Escoto, Holder-A.Clark.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14FG6 plays · 70 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
99.7%
M.Bailey rushed for 17 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CCSU 25. PENALTY on CCSU-T.Armstrong, Personal Foul / Defense, 13 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
99.7%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Parker.Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+2
99.7%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by B.Harris for 2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CCSU at CCSU 8.Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 5
OPP 8
0
99.8%
T.Mattson 26 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Pratt, Holder-D.Chapeau.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:250% → 0%
CCSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q3 5:03
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+43
99.9%
A.Clark punts 43 yards to CMC 24, Center-C.Escoto. Downed by CCSU. PENALTY on CMC-M.Badgett, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD4 plays · 86 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.8%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Williams.Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
99.8%
J.Labas steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for G.Harris. PENALTY on CCSU-M.Wright, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
99.8%
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Davis for 72 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 18INT4 plays · 15 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
99.9%
R.Ortega pass INTERCEPTED at CCSU 46. Intercepted by A.Snell at CCSU 46. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 19DOWNS13 plays · 81 yds · 5:300% → 0%
Q4 14:12
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
99.9%
R.Ortega steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Alves. PENALTY on CMC-E.Conoran, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.9%
R.Ortega rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 1. The Replay Official reviewed the targeting and the play was upheld.Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
R.Ortega steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Marcus.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+9
99.9%
T.Jefferson pass complete. Catch made by E.Boyd for 9 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CMC 15.Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+45
99.9%
D.Chapeau punts 45 yards to CCSU 40, Center-B.Pratt. M.Plaskon returned punt from the CCSU 40. Tackled by CMC at CCSU 40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:470% → 0%
CMUDrive 22DOWNS12 plays · 45 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
Q4 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
100.0%
N.Biggins rushed for yards. Tackled by CCSU at CMC 24. PENALTY on CMC-R.Blum, Offensive Holding, 1 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+22
100.0%
T.Jefferson pass complete. Catch made by E.Boyd for 22 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CMC 27.Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
T.Jefferson pass complete. Catch made by J.Williams for 5 yards. Tackled by CCSU at CMC 43.Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
100.0%
T.Jefferson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Williams.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCSUDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 18 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:56
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by E.Boyd for 47 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+1.9
TD · Q2 12:01
B.Harris rushed for 9 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+1.2
TD · Q2 3:25
J.Labas pass complete. Catch made by S.Davis for 17 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+1.1