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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadLAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreLAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:30 · Jakob Trestik punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:17: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — BUF win probability +6.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:23: Nick Reed 22 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +3.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:09: Dallas Holmes 18 Yd pass from Carson Persing (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LAF win probability +9.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: LAF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:10: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — BUF win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:25: Jacqez Barksdale run for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — BUF win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LAF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 14:23BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it60.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.8%average punt
- Q1 5:21LAF 4th & 6 at LAF 40, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.7%average punt
- Q1 1:29LAF 4th & 1 at LAF 42, down 13Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it31.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:06BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 15, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.5%−0.935% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.4%average punt
- Q2 12:18LAF 4th & 20 at LAF 17, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snapGo for it26.3%−1.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q2 9:23BUF 4th & 4 at LAF 4, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snapGo for it76.2%40% to convertField goalTheir call75.4%−0.893% to makePunt68.0%−8.2average punt
- Q2 4:42LAF 4th & 5 at BUF 9, down 16Close callWent for it · 22.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.2%−<0.136% to convertField goal22.2%89% to makePunt18.3%−3.9average punt
- Q3 11:30LAF 4th & 12 at LAF 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.1%−2.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q3 10:15BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snapGo for it74.1%−3.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%average punt
- Q3 9:25BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snapGo for it75.5%−2.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%average punt
- Q3 8:33LAF 4th & 11 at LAF 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it19.8%−1.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%average punt
- Q3 3:25LAF 4th & 5 at BUF 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%41% to convertField goal7.9%−0.354% to makePunt6.7%−1.5average punt
- Q4 14:14BUF 4th & 2 at LAF 34, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.7%57% to convertField goalTheir call93.7%−1.047% to makePunt93.3%−1.4average punt
- Q4 10:12LAF 4th & 3 at BUF 13, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.5%50% to convertField goal4.3%−0.285% to makePunt0.1%−4.4average punt
- Q4 8:49LAF 4th & 6 at BUF 14, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.437% to convertField goalTheir call4.1%84% to makePunt0.8%−3.3average punt
- Q4 6:06BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 35, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q4 4:24LAF 4th & 5 at LAF 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LAF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 9:02BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick62.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call62.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:17BUF Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.3%97% to makeGo for two67.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:09LAF Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick23.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call23.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:10BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3758% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 2INT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2242% → 43%
BUFDrive 3TD10 plays · 60 yds · 2:5958% → 61%
Q1 12:01
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+18
57.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 18 yds to the LAF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
58.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 7 yds to the LAF 28Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
58.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 13 yds to the LAF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4140% → 39%
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
59.5%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jamar Curtis for 6 yds to the LAF 33Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
59.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 3 yds to the LAF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
59.3%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for a loss of 3 yards to the LAF 33Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+14
60.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 14 yds to the LAF 45Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+22
60.9%
Jakob Trestik punt for 45 yds for a 1ST down , Victor Snow returns for 22 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST down Lafayette Penalty, personal foul (Ethan Hosak) to the LAF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0462% → 69%
Q1 3:17
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+31
68.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4433% → 33%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+6
67.0%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 6 yds to the LAF 34Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
66.8%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Dallas Holmes for 7 yds to the LAF 41Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
67.0%
Jakob Trestik punt for 47 yds , Victor Snow returns for 1 yd to the BUF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 15:5458% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4832% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG8 plays · 49 yds · 2:5574% → 77%
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+34
73.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 34 yds to the LAF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
73.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 8 yds to the LAF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
73.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the LAF 4 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 10DOWNS12 plays · 68 yds · 4:4126% → 24%
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
73.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Troy Bruce for 7 yds to the LAF 47Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
72.8%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Troy Bruce for 5 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
72.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 4 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+29
72.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 29 yds to the BUF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 4:2480% → 82%
Q2 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
80.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 4 yds to the BUF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+14
80.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 14 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
83.4%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush (Thomas,Reggie;Roundtree,Tristen), PENALTY BUF false start (Johnson,Taji) 5 yards to the BUF43. Buffalo Penalty, false start (Taji Johnson) to the BUF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 12TD2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
LAFDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 3:3027% → 23%
BUFDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1576% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:3677% → 75%
LAFDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5224% → 21%
BUFDrive 17TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2378% → 92%
LAFDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 48 yds · 2:4510% → 9%
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
90.0%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson Persing for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jonathan Capo) to the LAF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
89.5%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jamar Curtis for 5 yds to the LAF 47Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
89.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 2 yds to the LAF 49Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
89.4%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Jamar Curtis for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, roughing passer (C.J. Bazile) to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
89.2%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 5 yds to the BUF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19MISSED FG9 plays · 39 yds · 15:4684% → 95%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-1
84.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 40Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+12
92.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 12 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+6
94.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 6 yds to the LAF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD1 play · 19 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 21TD11 plays · 66 yds · 4:026% → 5%
Q4 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
93.8%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Chris Carasia for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Charles McCartherens) to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
92.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 15 yds to the BUF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
92.6%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Ethan Hosak for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 22Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+6
92.9%
Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 19 Troy Bruce run for 6 yds to the BUF 19Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+6
93.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 6 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+13
95.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 13 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 22MISSED FG5 plays · 4 yds · 1:185% → 4%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
94.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 5 yds to the BUF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4396% → 97%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
96.5%
Barksdale,Jacqez rush (O'Hearn,Tim), PENALTY BUF holding (Polizzi,Dom) 10 yards to the BUF40. Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Dom Polizzi) to the BUF 20Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+10
96.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 10 yds to the BUF 35Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+9
97.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds , Semaj Cross returns for 9 yds to the LAF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 24INT2 plays · 10 yds · 0:353% → 3%
LAFDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:012% → 2%
BUFDrive 26Uncategorized7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2498% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:10
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q3 10:09
Dallas Holmes 18 Yd pass from Carson Persing (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-9.6
TD · Q1 3:17
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)
+6.7