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LAF

Lafayette 13 at Buffalo 30

BUF
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadLAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreLAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:00 · Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 5 yds to the LAF 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:17: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — BUF win probability +6.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:23: Nick Reed 22 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +3.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:09: Dallas Holmes 18 Yd pass from Carson Persing (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LAF win probability +9.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: LAF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:10: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — BUF win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:25: Jacqez Barksdale run for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK) — BUF win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LAF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:23BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:21LAF 4th & 6 at LAF 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:29LAF 4th & 1 at LAF 42, down 13
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:18LAF 4th & 20 at LAF 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:23BUF 4th & 4 at LAF 4, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−8.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:42LAF 4th & 5 at BUF 9, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:30LAF 4th & 12 at LAF 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:15BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:25BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:33LAF 4th & 11 at LAF 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:25LAF 4th & 5 at BUF 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:14BUF 4th & 2 at LAF 34, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:12LAF 4th & 3 at BUF 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:49LAF 4th & 6 at BUF 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:06BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:24LAF 4th & 5 at LAF 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LAF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 9:02BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:17BUF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:09LAF Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:10BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3758% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
57.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete, broken up by Tyree MorrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
57.7%
pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q1 14:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
57.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 2INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2242% → 43%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
57.7%
Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the LAF 41Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+12
57.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 12 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
57.7%
Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the BUF 46Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
57.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Dallas Holmes for 4 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
57.5%
Dean DeNobile pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:5958% → 61%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
58.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 37Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+18
57.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 18 yds to the LAF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
58.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the LAF 40Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+5
58.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the LAF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
58.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 7 yds to the LAF 28Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
58.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the LAF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
58.4%
pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
58.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 13 yds to the LAF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
60.6%
Al-Jay Henderson 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
Q1 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
60.6%
Orlando,Jake rush (Thomas,Reggie).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4140% → 39%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.6%
Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the LAF 27Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
59.5%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jamar Curtis for 6 yds to the LAF 33Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
59.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 3 yds to the LAF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
59.3%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for a loss of 3 yards to the LAF 33Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-2
59.6%
Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 2 yards to the LAF 31Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+14
60.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 14 yds to the LAF 45Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
60.0%
Lafayette Penalty, delay of game (Jakob Trestik) to the LAF 40Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+22
60.9%
Jakob Trestik punt for 45 yds for a 1ST down , Victor Snow returns for 22 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST down Lafayette Penalty, personal foul (Ethan Hosak) to the LAF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0462% → 69%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
61.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the LAF 42Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
61.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the LAF 39Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
61.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the LAF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
61.9%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the LAF 31Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+31
68.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4433% → 33%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
66.8%
Lafayette Penalty, delay of game (Dean DeNobile) to the LAF 28Similar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+6
67.0%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 6 yds to the LAF 34Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
66.8%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Dallas Holmes for 7 yds to the LAF 41Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
66.3%
Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the LAF 42Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
67.0%
Jakob Trestik punt for 47 yds , Victor Snow returns for 1 yd to the BUF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 15:5458% → 70%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+4
57.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BUF 19Similar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
69.3%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+1
69.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 20
-5
69.4%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Clevester Hines III) to the BUF 15Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
70.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4832% → 29%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
68.4%
Dean DeNobile sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 26Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+1
68.6%
Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the LAF 27Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-10
68.8%
Dean DeNobile sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the LAF 17Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 20
OWN 17
0
70.6%
Jakob Trestik punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:5574% → 77%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
73.6%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 49Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+34
73.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 34 yds to the LAF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
73.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the LAF 13Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
73.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 8 yds to the LAF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.7%
pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
73.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the LAF 4 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUFSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
73.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
77.2%
Nick Reed 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:4126% → 24%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.0%
Troy Bruce run for 15 yds to the LAF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.3%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
73.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Troy Bruce for 7 yds to the LAF 47Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
72.8%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Troy Bruce for 5 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
72.7%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 4 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
72.7%
Troy Bruce run for 1 yd to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+29
72.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 29 yds to the BUF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
71.7%
Troy Bruce run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 15Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+8
72.1%
Dean DeNobile run for 8 yds to the BUF 7Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-2
72.4%
Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 9Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+2
76.0%
Dean DeNobile run for 2 yds to the BUF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:2480% → 82%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
80.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 8Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+6
80.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 14Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
80.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 4 yds to the BUF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
80.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+14
80.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 14 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
80.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
83.4%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush (Thomas,Reggie;Roundtree,Tristen), PENALTY BUF false start (Johnson,Taji) 5 yards to the BUF43. Buffalo Penalty, false start (Taji Johnson) to the BUF 33Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
83.0%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
82.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
72.4%
Dallas Holmes 18 Yd pass from Carson Persing (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
72.4%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen McNairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:3027% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.6%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 2 yds to the LAF 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
72.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 7 yds to the LAF 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
72.1%
Jamar Curtis run for 3 yds to the LAF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
71.8%
Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-9
72.3%
Dean DeNobile sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the LAF 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+8
73.8%
Jamar Curtis run for 8 yds to the LAF 35Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
77.0%
Jakob Trestik punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1576% → 75%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush middle (Thomas,Reggie).Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 22Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
75.0%
punt for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:3677% → 75%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
77.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Tyree MorrisSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
76.9%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Shey Williams) to the BUF 16Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+6
76.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 6 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
76.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Gabe DuBoisSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
75.4%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5224% → 21%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.8%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward, broken up by Eddie Pleasant IIISimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
76.2%
Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 39Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
77.3%
pass incomplete to Chris CarasiaSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
78.6%
Jakob Trestik punt for 36 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2378% → 92%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Jaylon JosephSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
77.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
78.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+16
79.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 16 yds to the LAF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
79.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 10 yds to the LAF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
81.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the LAF 32Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
92.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:4510% → 9%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.2%
Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the LAF 27Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
90.0%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson Persing for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jonathan Capo) to the LAF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
89.5%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jamar Curtis for 5 yds to the LAF 47Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
89.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 2 yds to the LAF 49Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
89.4%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Jamar Curtis for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, roughing passer (C.J. Bazile) to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.2%
pass incomplete to Chris CarasiaSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
89.2%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 5 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
88.9%
pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+4
91.4%
Dean DeNobile run for 4 yds to the BUF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 15:4684% → 95%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-1
84.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 40Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
92.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Burch,Messiah rush right (Cross,Semaj).Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+12
92.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 12 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
93.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+13
93.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 13 yds to the LAF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
93.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the LAF 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+6
94.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 6 yds to the LAF 34Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+52
94.5%
Nick Reed 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:026% → 5%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.7%
pass incomplete to Mason KuehnerSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
93.7%
Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the LAF 36Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
93.8%
Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Chris Carasia for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Charles McCartherens) to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
93.5%
Troy Bruce run for 8 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
93.1%
pass incomplete to Devin PaigeSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+6
93.3%
Dean DeNobile run for 6 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
92.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 15 yds to the BUF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
92.6%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Ethan Hosak for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 22Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+6
92.9%
Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 19 Troy Bruce run for 6 yds to the BUF 19Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+6
93.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 6 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+13
95.4%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 13 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:185% → 4%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
94.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 5 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 13
-1
94.9%
Dean DeNobile run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 14Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
95.3%
pass incomplete to Elijah StewardSimilar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
95.9%
Jack Simonetta 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4396% → 97%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
96.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
96.5%
Barksdale,Jacqez rush (O'Hearn,Tim), PENALTY BUF holding (Polizzi,Dom) 10 yards to the BUF40. Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Dom Polizzi) to the BUF 20Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+5
96.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+10
96.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 10 yds to the BUF 35Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
96.5%
pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+9
97.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds , Semaj Cross returns for 9 yds to the LAF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 24INT
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:353% → 3%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
96.9%
Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 10 yds to the LAF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Dean DeNobile pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:012% → 2%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.6%
Nahjee Adams run for 3 yds to the LAF 28Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
97.5%
Tray Mauney run for 2 yds to the LAF 30Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
97.5%
pass incomplete to Gabe DeckerSimilar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Jakob Trestik punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26Uncategorized
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2498% → 99%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
97.8%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
97.8%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 7 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
97.9%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 8 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
98.0%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.6%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 6 yds to the LAF 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
98.6%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the LAF 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
98.6%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 5 yds to the LAF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:10
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q3 10:09
Dallas Holmes 18 Yd pass from Carson Persing (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-9.6
TD · Q1 3:17
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com