2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:04 · Mitchell Tomasek punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:04: Cole Snyder run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:02: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Connor Briggs for 5 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +6.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:35: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 19 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +22.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:41: Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +18.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cole Weaver for 24 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 6:37M-OH 4th & 8 at EMU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it54.0%−0.134% to convertField goal53.7%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call54.0%average punt
- Q1 5:13EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 16, tiedClose callPunted · 45.6% before the snapGo for it45.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:40EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.3%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%average punt
- Q1 0:28M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 20, tiedClose callPunted · 52.1% before the snapGo for it52.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%−0.8average punt
- Q2 6:14EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it36.2%−2.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q2 3:46M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snapGo for it62.3%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%average punt
- Q3 13:32EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.5%−0.9average punt
- Q3 7:51EMU 4th & 2 at M-OH 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.2%51% to convertField goal21.1%−1.192% to makePunt14.9%−7.3average punt
- Q3 6:15M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 10, up 14Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snapGo for it83.0%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 14:04EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.9%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q4 11:42M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 25, up 14Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it91.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%−0.6average punt
- Q4 9:43EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 38, down 14Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.9%−2.1average punt
- Q4 5:01M-OH 4th & 4 at EMU 26, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call94.1%−0.364% to makePunt90.7%−3.7average punt
- Q4 1:54EMU 4th & 13 at M-OH 33, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%−<0.121% to convertField goal2.3%49% to makePunt2.1%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 14:50M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.0%97% to makeGo for two56.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:04EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.6%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:02M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.9%97% to makeGo for two58.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:35M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.7%97% to makeGo for two71.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:41EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.8%97% to makeGo for two26.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:30M-OH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−0.297% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
37.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 75 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4437% → 40%
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
37.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 7 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
37.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Defensive Holding (Corban Hondru) to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
37.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 4 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
37.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for 13 yds to the M-OH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 3:2661% → 60%
EMUDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 3:5240% → 41%
Q1 5:58
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+1
39.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 1 yd to the EMU 16Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
39.8%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 35 yds , Cade McDonald returns for no gain to the M-OH 49Similar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
41.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for a loss of 4 yards to the EMU 47Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 14
OWN 47
-2
41.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Deion Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the EMU 45Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
40.9%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0659% → 58%
Q1 0:28
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
42.3%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Oran Singleton at the M-OH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD8 plays · 59 yds · 3:4859% → 67%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
40.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 19 yds to the EMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
39.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 22 yds to the EMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
32.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Connor Briggs for 5 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 3:4636% → 34%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 6 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
36.3%
(09:27) SNYDER, Cole pass short up the middle incomplete dropped by SINGLETON, Oran thrown to the EMU36, clock 09:24. PENALTY MIA Offsides on UGWU, Brian enforced 5 yards from the EMU31 to the EMU36 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
36.0%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the EMU 39Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+2
33.5%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 39 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 2 yds to the M-OH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1962% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9INT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0040% → 40%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
40.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jere Getzinger for 12 yds to the EMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
40.5%
(03:04) SNYDER, Cole pass to the right complete for 11 yards to LOCKETT, Terry caught at the EMU43 and advanced to the EMU43, out of bounds, clock 03:00. PENALTY EMU Holding on INDESTAD, Mack enforced 10 yards from the EMU32 to the EMU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
40.0%
Cole Snyder pass intercepted Matt Salopek return for no gain to the EMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5367% → 85%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
15.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 19 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11MISSED FG8 plays · 56 yds · 0:3319% → 20%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
19.4%
Delbert Mimms III run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
50
+8
20.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 8 yds to the M-OH 42Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+12
20.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for 12 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12DOWNS15 plays · 57 yds · 6:5924% → 21%
Q3 12:14
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
23.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 7 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
22.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 4 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+19
22.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 19 yds to the M-OH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3084% → 84%
Q3 6:15
4TH & 4
OWN 10
+48
15.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 48 yds , Oran Singleton returns for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14TD11 plays · 59 yds · 3:2319% → 36%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
18.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 16 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+15
17.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jere Getzinger for 15 yds to the M-OH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+12
17.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to JB Mitchell III for 12 yds to the M-OH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3774% → 90%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
26.2%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Quentavius Scandrett) to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
21.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for no gain to the EMU 24Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
10.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cole Weaver for 24 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:507% → 6%
M-OHDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1491% → 93%
Q4 11:42
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
7.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Oran Singleton at the EMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:536% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG9 plays · 60 yds · 4:3195% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20DOWNS13 plays · 31 yds · 3:001% → 1%
Q4 4:25
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+14
0.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Elijah Jackson-Anderson for 14 yds to the EMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
0.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 14 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
0.9%
Elijah Jackson-Anderson run for 10 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
1.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Elijah Jackson-Anderson for 7 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
1.0%
Cole Snyder sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 8 yards to the M-OH 38Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 13
OPP 33
-16
0.7%
Cole Snyder sacked by Ty Wise and Brian Ugwu for a loss of 16 yards to the M-OH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21TD5 plays · 51 yds · 0:1599% → 100%
EMUDrive 22END OF GAME5 plays · 6 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
0.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 5 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 19 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-22.3
TD · Q3 2:41
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q4 14:55
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cole Weaver for 24 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
-11.4