Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 20 at Troy 52

TROY
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at USM11 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:04: Damien Taylor run for 56 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:46: Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USM win probability +4.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:42: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 10 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:05: Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs PAT MISSED) — USM win probability +5.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:59: Damien Taylor run for 35 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:40USM 4th & 15 at USM 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42USM 4th & 9 at USM 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:59TROY 4th & 15 at USM 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:19USM 4th & 14 at TROY 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:11USM 4th & 2 at TROY 28, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:43TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 21, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:53USM 4th & 15 at USM 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:38TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 37, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:09TROY 4th & 12 at USM 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:19USM 4th & 7 at TROY 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:41TROY 4th & 2 at USM 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−1.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:58USM 4th & 27 at TROY 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:22TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:56USM 4th & 26 at USM 9, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:11USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:28TROY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:50TROY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:04TROY Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:46USM Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:42TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:05USM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:59TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:43TROY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:08TROY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2013% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
86.9%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 21Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
86.7%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 20Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
86.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+35
86.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 35 yds , Joe Lott returns for no gain to the TROY 41 , returns for no gain to the TROY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:2814% → 15%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+40
86.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 40 yds to the TROY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the TROY 1Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.3%
Kenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Bryce Lofton Pass to Kyirin Heath for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:4186% → 85%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
85.5%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
85.3%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
85.0%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
84.9%
Troy Penalty, False Start (Elijah Prather) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 15
50
+26
84.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 26 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
84.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 6 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
84.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+8
84.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
84.1%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the USM 6Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.8%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the USM 6Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.8%
Damien Taylor 6 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4516% → 16%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
84.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 36Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
84.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3984% → 84%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
84.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 9 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+5
84.2%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
84.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 13 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
84.0%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+15
83.8%
Matthew Caldwell run for 15 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
83.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
83.5%
Matthew Caldwell run for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 32 Matthew Caldwell fumbled, recovered by TROY Matthew Caldwell M. Caldwell return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+50
83.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:3816% → 17%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
83.8%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USM 34Similar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 1
OWN 34
+12
83.3%
JQ Gray run for 12 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
82.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 25 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
82.2%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 32Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-1
82.2%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
82.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to JQ Gray for no gain to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+50
83.1%
Connor Gibbs 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:2483% → 87%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
83.2%
Matthew Caldwell run for 9 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
83.7%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.6%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
83.5%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
83.3%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
82.7%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Desmyn Baker) to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.3%
Landon Parker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
83.2%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+13
82.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 13 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
83.3%
Gerald Green run for 7 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
83.2%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the USM 17Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
82.6%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
83.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
86.6%
Matthew Caldwell run for 14 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:3214% → 16%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
85.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 12 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
85.5%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 29Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+1
85.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 1 yd to the USM 30Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+11
85.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
84.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 23 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
84.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 8 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
83.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
84.2%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the TROY 28Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
84.3%
Connor Gibbs 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2485% → 85%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
85.1%
Troy Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamel Fils-Aime) to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
85.0%
Jordan Lovett run for 9 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-2
86.5%
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 21Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
85.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
85.4%
Robert Cole punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:4814% → 13%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
85.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
85.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for no gain to the USM 48Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-5
85.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 43Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-3
86.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 40Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+2
86.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 48 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 2 yds to the TROY 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:0187% → 88%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
86.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
86.8%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 18Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+14
86.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 14 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
87.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
88.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
88.2%
Robert Cole punt for 26 yds, downed at the USM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0614% → 14%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-9
85.8%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Phillip Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:5185% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.2%
Matthew Caldwell run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
85.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
84.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
86.1%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
86.4%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 41Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+20
85.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 20 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
86.4%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 41Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
87.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
86.1%
Matthew Caldwell run for no gain to the USM 41Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
85.1%
Robert Cole punt for 23 yds, downed at the USM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:4015% → 14%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-1
85.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 17Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+19
86.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 19 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
84.4%
Dannis Jackson run for 3 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
84.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
84.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 13 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
84.6%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 45Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+8
85.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 8 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
84.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-7
86.3%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Brendan Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the TROY 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
95.3%
Damien Taylor run for 56 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:178% → 12%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
87.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:0487% → 97%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
87.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 31 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
88.7%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 46Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+10
87.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 10 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+11
87.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
89.2%
Devonte Ross run for 2 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
89.2%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+8
88.9%
Damien Taylor run for 8 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
89.5%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
96.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 10 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 5:385% → 3%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
95.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 7 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
95.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
95.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 17 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
95.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
95.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
96.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+15
96.0%
(12:20) RODEMAKER, Tate pass short to the right incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the TROY38; QB hurried by MCNEILL, Jabril, clock 12:17. PENALTY TROY Roughing the Passer on MCNEILL, Jabril enforced 15 yards from the TROY42 to the TROY27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
95.2%
JQ Gray run for no gain to the TROY 27Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-6
95.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Chandler Pittman for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 33Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 16
OPP 33
-11
96.3%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Phillip Lee for a loss of 11 yards to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 27
OPP 44
0
96.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2897% → 97%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
97.3%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 7
-6
97.4%
Matthew Caldwell run for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 1 Matthew Caldwell fumbled, recovered by TROY Matthew Caldwell M. Caldwell return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 12
OWN 1
0
97.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 12
OWN 1
0
97.3%
Robert Cole punt for 28 yds, downed at the TROY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 1:074% → 10%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
96.0%
Chandler Pittman pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 25 yds to the TROY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.1%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the TROY 4Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:0395% → 99%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
94.7%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 11
50
+15
94.8%
Damien Taylor run for 15 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.6%
Damien Taylor run for 35 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-31
99.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted Ian Conerly-Goodly return for 31 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 3 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
99.7%
Troy Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Luis Medina) to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-49
99.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted LJ Green return for 49 yds to the USM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
99.9%
Damien Taylor run for 11 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Troemel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
100.0%
(04:07) CLARK, Rodrigues rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the USM29 (LOTT, Joe;STARLING, Darrell), clock 04:02. PENALTY USM Holding on WELCH, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the USM25 to the USM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 21Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-12
100.0%
John White run for a loss of 12 yards to the USM 9 Ryan Johnson fumbled, recovered by USM John White J. White return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+1
100.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 35 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 1 yd to the USM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+38
100.0%
Tae Meadows run for 38 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
100.0%
(00:58) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at USM9 (team loss of 4), clock 00:50.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
100.0%
[NH] Kneel down by TEAM at USM11 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:04
Damien Taylor run for 56 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q3 0:42
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Trae Swartz for 10 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q4 7:05
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs PAT MISSED)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com