Try the model
USA

South Alabama 35 at Southern Miss 14

USM
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:50 · Connor Gibbs 30 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior−27.4Home team on offense−10.0Score differential−5.1Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:33: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 32 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +4.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Connor Gibbs 59 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +3.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 13:25: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 40 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +7.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:42: John White pass intercepted Wesley Miller return for 57 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +5.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:34: Connor Gibbs 28 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +4.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 5:40USA 4th & 8 at USM 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:57USM 4th & 6 at USM 49, up 8
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:32USM 4th & 17 at USM 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:13USM 4th & 5 at USM 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:34USA 4th & 6 at USA 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:41USM 4th & 17 at USA 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:59USA 4th & 10 at USA 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:37USM 4th & 10 at USM 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:13USA 4th & 7 at USA 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:50USM 4th & 10 at USA 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:38USA 4th & 17 at USA 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:30USM 4th & 1 at USA 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−2.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:38USA 4th & 11 at USA 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:02USM 4th & 8 at USA 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:34USM 4th & 10 at USA 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:51USM 4th & 7 at USA 25, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:14USA 4th & 8 at USA 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:54USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:29USA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33USA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:25USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:42USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:48USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:047% → 10%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.5%
Tate Rodemaker run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
6.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
6.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 7 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
7.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 11 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
7.2%
Tiaquelin Mims run for 8 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
7.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 5 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
7.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
8.0%
Tate Rodemaker run for 7 yds to the USA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
8.2%
Chandler Pittman run for 6 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
8.4%
Tate Rodemaker run for no gain to the USA 22Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+13
8.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 13 yds to the USA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
9.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USA 7Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
10.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 7 yds for a TD (R. Jesiolowski Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:1290% → 88%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
10.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
50
+6
10.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-10
10.5%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USA 49Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+3
11.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 3 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
11.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
11.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:4312% → 14%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
11.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 12 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
12.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
12.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 24Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
12.3%
South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Aakil Washington) to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
13.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 46Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
13.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Justyn Reid for 8 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-10
13.9%
(02:55) RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JESIOLOWSKI, Reed thrown to the USA10, clock 02:49. PENALTY USM Holding on LUCAS, Dontae enforced 10 yards from the USA46 to the USM44 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+10
13.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 10 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
14.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 49Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
14.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2185% → 87%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
14.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 14 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
14.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 24 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
14.6%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 47Similar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+7
15.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 7 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
15.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+10
15.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
14.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
15.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
15.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 21Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+21
13.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 21 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:5714% → 15%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
14.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 27Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
14.7%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Blayne Myrick for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 18Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 17
OWN 18
-9
14.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 50 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for a loss of 9 yards to the USA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:4484% → 89%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
15.7%
Anthony Eager run for 20 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
15.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+14
15.5%
Gio Lopez run for 14 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
15.2%
Gio Lopez run for no gain to the USM 43Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
15.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
15.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 8 yds to the USM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
11.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 32 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2013% → 12%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.5%
John White pass complete to Larry Simmons for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
12.4%
John White pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 1 yd to the USM 30Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
12.3%
John White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
12.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3688% → 87%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
11.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-5
12.1%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USA 25Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
12.7%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+7
13.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 7 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
13.1%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 3:4813% → 15%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
13.2%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 21Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+15
13.2%
John White pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 15 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
14.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
14.4%
John White pass complete to Larry Simmons for 7 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+8
15.3%
JQ Gray run for 8 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
15.9%
JQ Gray run for 10 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
15.2%
John White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
15.1%
John White pass complete to Larry Simmons for 2 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-9
16.0%
John White sacked by Ed Smith IV for a loss of 9 yards to the USA 44Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 17
OPP 44
0
14.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:3586% → 84%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
14.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 10 yds to the USA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
14.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
14.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
15.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
15.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1716% → 15%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
16.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
15.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
15.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
14.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:1785% → 82%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
15.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 8Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-2
15.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 6Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+5
15.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
18.5%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 30 yds, downed at the USA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+59
21.9%
Connor Gibbs 59 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3582% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
18.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 10 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 35Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
18.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 25 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
11.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 40 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:3512% → 13%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
12.6%
Tate Rodemaker run for 7 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+54
12.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 54 yds to the USA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
14.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
14.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USA 11Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
14.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+30
13.0%
Connor Gibbs 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1187% → 86%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
12.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 2 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
13.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-9
13.5%
Gio Lopez sacked by Brodarius Lewis for a loss of 9 yards to the USA 13Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
14.1%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5614% → 14%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
14.2%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Jordan Norman and Parker Shattuck for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 42Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+11
13.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 11 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+7
14.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 7 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
14.2%
Tate Rodemaker run for no gain to the USA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3488% → 86%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
12.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-3
12.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 40Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-1
12.5%
Gio Lopez sacked by Brodarius Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 39Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
13.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19INT TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:5113% → 8%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
12.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 20Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+28
12.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 28 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
14.4%
John White run for a loss of 11 yards to the USM 37Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+9
13.1%
JQ Gray run for 9 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-57
7.7%
John White pass intercepted Wesley Miller return for 57 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:568% → 9%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
7.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 13 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
8.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 12 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
8.7%
JQ Gray run for no gain to the USA 39Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
7.7%
JQ Gray run for 2 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
7.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+18
7.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Javieon Butler for 18 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
8.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 4 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
8.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
6.7%
South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Lardarius Webb Jr.) to the USA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
7.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the USA 8Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
6.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 11Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
5.1%
Southern Miss Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
9.1%
Connor Gibbs 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3996% → 99%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
4.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 7 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
4.0%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
3.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+59
3.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 59 yds to the USM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:521% → 1%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.4%
JQ Gray run for no gain to the USM 31Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
1.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 7 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
1.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
1.2%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Parker Shattuck for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 33Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+15
0.8%
(06:20) RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DALTON, Davis thrown to the USA42, clock 06:14. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on HARRIS, Mike enforced 15 yards to the USM48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
0.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 4 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
0.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
0.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 5 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
1.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
0.9%
Kenyon Clay pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+3
0.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 7
OPP 25
0
0.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3499% → 100%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 15 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for no gain to the USA 40Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
0.3%
Bishop Davenport run for no gain to the USA 42Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
0.4%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.3%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 18Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
0.3%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:25
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 40 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-7
TD · Q3 2:42
John White pass intercepted Wesley Miller return for 57 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 8:33
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 32 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com