2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:46 · Kade Hensley 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:55: JC French pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +3.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- FG · Q1 2:46: Kade Hensley 39 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +2.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 12:43: Kade Hensley 24 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +3.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:56: Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 3:18: Gavin Stewart 39 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 8:17GASO 4th & 4 at CCU 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snapGo for it43.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call43.4%−0.193% to makePunt42.3%−1.2average punt
- Q1 7:25CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q1 2:46CCU 4th & 2 at GASO 21, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snapGo for it50.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call50.6%−0.474% to makePunt48.1%−2.8average punt
- Q1 0:57GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 28, up 7Close callPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it49.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:52CCU 4th & 4 at CCU 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.7%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.0%average punt
- Q2 1:29GASO 4th & 2 at CCU 9, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snapGo for it60.5%54% to convertField goalTheir call59.6%−0.989% to makePunt54.5%−6.0average punt
- Q2 0:42CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snapGo for it35.3%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q3 12:43CCU 4th & 6 at GASO 6, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snapGo for it35.6%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call35.9%91% to makePunt28.8%−7.1average punt
- Q3 9:12GASO 4th & 3 at CCU 30, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snapGo for it63.6%52% to convertField goalTheir call62.2%−1.456% to makePunt60.2%−3.3average punt
- Q3 7:05CCU 4th & 7 at GASO 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it39.3%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.6%average punt
- Q4 14:56GASO 4th & 10 at CCU 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snapGo for it68.8%−1.727% to convertField goalTheir call70.5%79% to makePunt62.2%−8.3average punt
- Q4 12:30CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it21.8%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.5%average punt
- Q4 9:35GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 39, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snapGo for it79.7%−3.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.0%average punt
- Q4 7:06GASO 4th & 21 at GASO 48, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snapGo for it82.3%−3.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q4 5:32CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, down 17Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.1%average punt
- Q4 3:18GASO 4th & 6 at CCU 21, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%74% to makePunt95.6%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:55GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.3%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:56GASO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1FG17 plays · 71 yds · 6:4345% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
54.7%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 13 yds to the GASO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+15
54.8%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 15 yds to the CCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
54.7%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 45Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-5
54.7%
Georgia Southern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+24
54.9%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 24 yds to the CCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
54.6%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 11 yds to the CCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5254% → 54%
GASODrive 3TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3046% → 49%
CCUDrive 4FG10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0951% → 51%
GASODrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4250% → 50%
Q1 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
50.6%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 3 yds to the GASO 24Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
50.9%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 4 yds to the GASO 28Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
50.2%
Alex Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4850% → 49%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+5
48.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 5 yds to the CCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7FUMBLE10 plays · 45 yds · 4:3252% → 54%
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+12
48.2%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 12 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
47.2%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 28 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 17
OPP 26
-10
47.1%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCU 42Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 27
OPP 36
-5
45.2%
JC French sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the CCU 31 JC French fumbled, recovered by CCU Sawyer Goram-Welch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 23
OPP 32
+4
45.7%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 4 yds Josh Dallas fumbled, recovered by CCU Nathan Thompson N. Thompson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8INT10 plays · 54 yds · 4:3348% → 47%
Q2 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-10
50.8%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCU 48Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+26
47.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cane Berrong for 26 yds to the GASO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
50.8%
VASKO, Ethan pass to the left complete for 0 yards to MCKIE, Senika caught at the EAGLES21 and advanced to the EAGLES19 (JACKSON, Ayden;GAMBLE, Chance). PENALTY EAGLES Offsides on DAVIS, Da'Shawn enforced 5 yards from the EAGLES19 to the EAGLES14 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-47
47.1%
Ethan Vasko pass intercepted Deontre Morris return for 47 yds to the CCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9FG10 plays · 32 yds · 4:1859% → 63%
CCUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:4737% → 37%
GASODrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4263% → 65%
CCUDrive 12FG6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1737% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13MISSED FG7 plays · 44 yds · 3:2462% → 64%
CCUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:0739% → 38%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
39.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
50
-10
42.7%
QB Keeper VASKO, Ethan rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the EAGLES42 (MORRIS, Deontre). PENALTY CHANTS Holding on JOHNSON, Thomas enforced 10 yards from the CHANTS50 to the CHANTS40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+9
39.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 9 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
38.0%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Dallas at the GASO 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15FG16 plays · 72 yds · 7:0965% → 75%
Q3 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+11
35.8%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 11 yds to the GASO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
32.7%
OJ Arnold run for a loss of 8 yards to the GASO 36 OJ Arnold fumbled, recovered by GASO Beau Johnson B. Johnson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+21
36.1%
JC French pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 21 yds to the CCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+6
31.7%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 6 yds to the CCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2625% → 22%
GASODrive 17PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5578% → 84%
Q4 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+20
22.5%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 20 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
14.4%
JC French sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 4 yards to the GASO 39Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
15.9%
Alex Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18FUMBLE2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3917% → 19%
GASODrive 19PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5087% → 86%
Q4 8:56
3RD & 14
OPP 45
-2
14.3%
JC French sacked by Clev Lubin and Barry Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 47Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 16
OPP 47
-5
15.4%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Delay Of Game (Marques Watson-Trent) to the GASO 48Similar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
13.7%
Alex Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20INT3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0114% → 12%
GASODrive 21TD2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0990% → 97%
CCUDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:245% → 4%
GASODrive 23FG6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1497% → 99%
CCUDrive 24INT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
1.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 14 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
1.2%
VASKO, Ethan pass to the right incomplete intended for DUPLESSIS, Kyre thrown to the EAGLES47. PENALTY EAGLES Pass Interference on JACKSON, Ayden enforced 15 yards to the EAGLES46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
1.2%
Ethan Vasko pass intercepted Chance Gamble return for no gain to the GASO 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25END OF GAME4 plays · 16 yds · 2:2399% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
0.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at EAGLES28 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:56
Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q1 6:55
JC French pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-3.3
FG · Q3 12:43
Kade Hensley 24 yd FG GOOD
+3