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JMU

James Madison 20 at App State 34

APP
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Aguilar takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:33: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +8.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:23: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 64 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +15.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:40: Michael Hetzel 9 Yd Punt Return (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +17.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:13: Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +13.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:39: Michael Hughes 41 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10JMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 9:29APP 4th & 17 at APP 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:45APP 4th & 6 at APP 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:58JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:53APP 4th & 2 at APP 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:19APP 4th & 5 at JMU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:12JMU 4th & 1 at APP 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−2.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49JMU 4th & 6 at APP 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.3%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:40JMU 4th & 8 at JMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:00APP 4th & 7 at JMU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:00APP 4th & 7 at JMU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:56JMU 4th & 15 at APP 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:24APP 4th & 5 at APP 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:07JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:07JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:51JMU 4th & 3 at JMU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.3%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:39JMU 4th & 3 at JMU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:39APP 4th & 3 at JMU 23, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−6.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:46APP 4th & 10 at APP 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:57JMU 4th & 12 at APP 12, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:03JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:33APP Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:13APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5159% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.6%
Alonza Barnett III run for 2 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
40.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 9 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
40.9%
George Pettaway run for 19 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
40.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 4 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
41.0%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+14
41.2%
Wayne Knight run for 14 yds to the APP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
41.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 19 yds to the APP 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
39.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 6 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1841% → 40%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
40.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the APP 32Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
40.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-7
40.2%
Joey Aguilar sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 25Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 17
OWN 25
+5
39.9%
Conner Maynard punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JMU 45 , Yamir Knight returns for 5 yds to the JMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0860% → 61%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
39.6%
George Pettaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 44Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
39.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 3 yds to the JMU 47Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+6
39.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 6 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
39.2%
PENALTY JMU Delay Of Game (Barnett III,Alonza) 5 yards from APP47 to JMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
39.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2540% → 39%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
39.7%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the APP 22Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
39.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+3
39.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 3 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Conner Maynard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:4761% → 61%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
39.1%
PENALTY JMU False Start (Ramil,Jesse) 5 yards from JMU30 to JMU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+6
39.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 6 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
39.1%
Alonza Barnett III run for 3 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-5
39.0%
PENALTY JMU False Start 5 yards from JMU34 to JMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+14
39.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 14 yds to the JMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
38.2%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
38.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+3
38.3%
Alonza Barnett III run for 3 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
38.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5839% → 38%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
39.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 11 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
39.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 6 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-3
39.4%
Joey Aguilar run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 32Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
38.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+5
37.8%
(01:09) Maynard,Conner punt 38 yards to the JMU30, out of bounds at JMU30 PENALTY JMU Running Into The Kicker (Logan,Chauncey) 5 yards from APP32 to APP37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+12
38.4%
Conner Maynard punt for 33 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 12 yds to the JMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:3963% → 68%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
37.2%
George Pettaway run for 14 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
36.7%
George Pettaway run for 4 yds to the APP 40Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
36.6%
Alonza Barnett III run for 3 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+37
31.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Josh Phifer for 37 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8FG
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:3533% → 36%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
32.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 52 yds to the JMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
34.0%
Anderson Castle run for 14 yds to the JMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
33.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
33.8%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the JMU 5Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
35.8%
Michael Hughes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2266% → 67%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
34.1%
Wayne Knight run for 16 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
33.2%
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
33.1%
Wayne Knight run for 5 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
32.9%
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
32.6%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Shawn Collins for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line Alonza Barnett III fumbled, recovered by APP Shawn Collins , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:1336% → 44%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
50
+1
35.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the JMU 49Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+29
35.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 29 yds to the JMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
36.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 12 yds to the JMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
36.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 4 yds to the JMU 4Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
35.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the JMU 4Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:3659% → 68%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 9 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
39.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 10 yds to the JMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
38.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 13 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
38.5%
Wayne Knight run for 6 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
38.1%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
38.2%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the APP 34Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
40.0%
Jobi Malary run for 2 yds to the APP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
37.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Taylor ThompsonSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
37.5%
Alonza Barnett III run for 4 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
36.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
32.2%
Noe Ruelas 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1835% → 50%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
35.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
35.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the APP 34Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
34.7%
Joey Aguilar run for 2 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
50.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 64 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13PUNT TD
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:3655% → 37%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to George PettawaySimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 12 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to George PettawaySimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
44.9%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the JMU 39Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
44.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+9
62.6%
Michael Hetzel 9 Yd Punt Return (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:2839% → 39%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
61.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 17 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
61.0%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Santana Hopper for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:4863% → 65%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
62.6%
Joey Aguilar run for 19 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
65.1%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
65.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+6
64.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 6 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
66.6%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 48Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 17
OWN 48
0
65.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 17
OWN 48
+10
64.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the JMU 42Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
65.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Ahmani MarshallSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
65.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Ahmani MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5638% → 39%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
62.3%
George Pettaway run for 17 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
60.9%
George Pettaway run for 5 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
60.7%
Alonza Barnett III run for 7 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
59.4%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
59.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-7
62.3%
Alonza Barnett III run for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 34Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+52
61.3%
Noe Ruelas 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2662% → 60%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.7%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 5 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
61.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Lawson Jr.Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
60.2%
Conner Maynard punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JMU 37 , Yamir Knight returns for 7 yds to the JMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:1042% → 38%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
58.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 7 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-10
55.9%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza rush left for 1 yard gain to the JMU45 (Yowe,Trenton Alan) PENALTY JMU Holding (Pettaway,George) 10 yards from JMU44 to JMU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+6
61.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jobi Malary for 6 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
59.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Taylor ThompsonSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+12
61.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 24 , Makai Jackson returns for 12 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+12
61.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 24 , Makai Jackson returns for 12 yds to the APP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:4563% → 83%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
62.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for 11 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
64.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for 12 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
67.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 10 yds to the JMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
68.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
68.1%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+22
67.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 22 yds to the JMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
69.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the JMU 16Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
69.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+14
68.6%
(01:43) Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short right to Jackson,Makai thrown to JMU00 broken up by Spence,Terrence, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Spence,Terrence) 14 yards from JMU16 to JMU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
70.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the JMU 1Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 13 yds · 5:2019% → 14%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
81.1%
George Pettaway run for 7 yds to the JMU 19Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 3
OWN 19
0
80.6%
George Pettaway run for no gain to the JMU 19Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+4
82.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 4 yds to the JMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.7%
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-10
82.4%
James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JMU 20Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
83.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Taylor ThompsonSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+10
84.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 10 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
83.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Dylan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
85.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Dylan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0886% → 94%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
86.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 4 yds to the JMU 26Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+3
86.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the JMU 23Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
93.5%
Michael Hughes 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1210% → 10%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.5%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
89.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 7 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass intercepted Jason Chambers return for no gain to the APP 20Similar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass intercepted Jason Chambers return for no gain to the APP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2495% → 95%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
94.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 23 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
95.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the APP 44Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-1
95.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 43Similar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Conner Maynard punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:327% → 6%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
92.9%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
92.7%
Alonza Barnett III run for 12 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
92.5%
George Pettaway run for 10 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
92.3%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Michael Fletcher for 0 yards to the JMU 47Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 6 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+12
94.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 12 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
93.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 28 yds to the APP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
93.7%
PENALTY JMU False Start 5 yards from APP07 to APP12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
94.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Cam RossSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
-6
94.5%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 6 yards to the APP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5197% → 99%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
97.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the APP 18Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+14
97.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 14 yds to the APP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the APP 32Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
98.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 15 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
98.5%
J. Aguilar takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-1
98.5%
J. Aguilar takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-1
98.6%
J. Aguilar takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
Michael Hetzel 9 Yd Punt Return (Michael Hughes Kick)
+17.7
TD · Q2 1:23
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 64 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 1:13
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com